WI No Saxons in Britain.

Here is a map:

If we take the OP literally, then the area along the Thames will be free from Saxon settlement. It is possible that here stronger Romano-British settlement and even Roman military presence survives, and through contact with the continent is kept strong. This might remain "Britannia". (The Jutes in Kent will probably be subjugated at some point.)
The area farther North, in East Anglia and Mercia, might be less well defended and so attract Angles. This might become the England of this TL.

And eventually be controlled and settled by neighbours : the demographic pressure was huge, and Saxons didn't representated that much of an overhelming migration. Granted, Angles or Frisians would have an harder time, but were close enough to replace Saxons without real modification of Romano-Brittons structures.

Indeed.
I'm also troubled by that map. It's not conclusive the Jutes of Kent are (from) the Jutes/Eudoses of North Jutland. Their more Frankish and Saxon customs and their place of settlement - tribes north of the Angles would tend to stay north of the Angles when crossing the North Sea - suggest they are more likely the Jutes/Eucii/Euthiones associated with the Saxons and Franks.
I won't rule out the Jutes coming from North Jutland but dispute that they crossed the sea directly rather than leapfrogging into Saxon, Frank, and Frisian land first
I'll point out that another meaning to Bede's placement of the Jutes on the other side of the Angles would be east (eg. Kielside) rather than north, thus making leapfrogging easier.
 
The Angles would still take Deira and Bernicia (Yorkshire, Northumberland and the Borders for Southeners)and at least East Mercia. (I suppose I'm saying roughly the area of Danelaw 300 years or so earlier.) There wasn't much resistance until the pennines and Cumbria(now somebody will tell me Elmet lasted until the 600s!)
If no Saxons it just depends on how good the Britons are at holding on to the government of southern Britannia. By 800 I would think that you would have Celtic Kingdoms in what we think of as Wales, Wessex and the Thames Valley. Possibly a germanic Kingdom of Kent and some analogs of East Mercia and Northumbria
Then the Vikings come!.
 
Butterfly away the Saxons and the Angles (maybe the Merovingian Franks subdue them or something)
That's relativly easy, as most of these peoples were actually leagues of tribes or lesser peoples. On the other hand, it means that they would likely be part of other ATL leagues and still present on North Sea when climatic changes and pauperisation of western germanic peoples happens in the V century.

So yes, it wouldn't be Saxons or Angles or Jutes, or Frisians, but most probably only by name.
 
Not really : they mostly raided the shores and set up harbours on the coast, more or less like Norses and Danes did in the IX century. Not that of a settlement.

If these harbours managed to live on, they would eventually be absorbated by local population or germanic elites (somethign that would be eventually the same) as we're talking of a population density and number hugely different from Britain : settling in large numbers in a region inhabited by 2 millions isn't going to be the same than raiding and controlling the shores of a region inhabited by 5/7 millions.

There was some settlement in the Loire Valley before the Saxons were pushed out in the early 460s.

I did make one mistake -- they were defeated by a combination of Franks under king Childeric and Romans under Count Paul, not the Visigoths, which pinpoints when their settlement came to an end. I'm not sure how early it began, but this is an alternate history site, so if it wasn't in the early fifth century in real life, it can be on this thread.

Could large enough numbers of Saxons pile into Gaul for long enough to relieve the pressure on Celtic Britain? I think anything's plausible in the fifth century; Visigoths, Burgundians, Asding Vandals, Siling Vandals, Alans, Suebi, Salian Franks and Ripuarian Franks had already migrated there, some moving on into Spain. Not to mention Britons who moved into Brittany, which could be opened up for the Saxons if the Britons had no reason to go there.
 
There was some settlement in the Loire Valley before the Saxons were pushed out in the early 460s.

And these settlements are quite comparable to what Norses did in the IX, fortified outposts rather than real takeover of the lands, at least not willingly (The defeat of Saxons against Frankish kings may have led these latters to deport Saxons in countryside, like they did, in larger scale, with Saxons in VIII/IX century)

Belle-Île, by exemple, may likely have been used in the same way Noirmoutiers was later, as a advanced base both for raiding and for trade (Saxons, understood as the merging of coastal peoples that may have been as well Frankish, Frisians than actual proper Saxons, controlling the naval economical exchanges).

Now, while the use of "Saxons" for naming part of Bessin, may refers more to Saxons deported by Carolingians rather than a continued "maritime" Saxon settlement, they did maintained many particularities up to the VII century : particularly by being a military force distinct from regular Gallo-Frankish ones.

But we're talking small scale, and not migrating people moves there.


I did make one mistake -- they were defeated by a combination of Franks under king Childeric and Romans under Count Paul, not the Visigoths, which pinpoints when their settlement came to an end. I'm not sure how early it began, but this is an alternate history site, so if it wasn't in the early fifth century in real life, it can be on this thread.
Actually, there's some clues they had a small presence in Aquitaine, or at least noticable economical/cultural influence, so the mistake is quite meaningless here.
For the date of settlements, due to their nature, it's hard to distinguish regular raids made from Germania/Brittania directly, or trough outposts. I would think that, keeping the Viking parallel, they could have likely done such since the V century, maybe (but discontinued) since the IV.

Could large enough numbers of Saxons pile into Gaul for long enough to relieve the pressure on Celtic Britain?
Saxons were able to have a presence in Gaul, precisely because they settled Britain : Procope mentions, with the migration of Brittons in Armorica, moves from Angli and Frisii in Gaul from Britain. It's far for being the only mentions, the Early MA Saints lives in Normandy, while heavily hagiographied, mentionsr egularly raids and invasions of Saxons from there.

Without Saxon/Angle/Frisian, etc presence in Britain, the raids and settlement of these groups in Gaul may have likely be less important and short-lived.

I think anything's plausible in the fifth century; Visigoths, Burgundians, Asding Vandals, Siling Vandals, Alans, Suebi, Salian Franks and Ripuarian Franks had already migrated there, some moving on into Spain.
It's a common cliché on EMA AH actually : Migration Period doesn't mean that anything can happen for no reason whatsoever. The migrations of Western Germanic peoples especially usually are made along earlier raids and presence, depending on how they managed to organise.
Admitting the leagues and confederations are the same than OTL in the V century, the situation is kinda stuck : Franks have a lasting presence in Gaul not only at its borders but hinterland as well since the III century and represents huge numbers, while Saxons/Frisians, etc seems to have been numerically

Saxons, depsite having raided the shores, didn't settled the countryside like Franks did (more or less forced by Romans) and a most probably discontinued presence up to the V doesn't help.

On the contrary, they OTL had important settlement in Britain hinterland, maybe since the IV century.

You could butterfly that away, but I think it would have needed preventing Saxon rise in first place, in order to not let them the possibility to move in first place. But let's admit they settle more Gallic hinterland than OTL and not in Britain, or far less.

Being in a region more inhabited (it's hard to have clear numbers, but 1,5/2 against 5/6 millions seems to be a valid guesstimate) and relativly more cohesive is going to prevent the advantages Saxons had in Britain to maintain a more cohesive and dynamic settlement. They would have real competitors, not that willing to share, without talking about a more important "roman" resistance.

Not to mention Britons who moved into Brittany, which could be opened up for the Saxons if the Britons had no reason to go there.
Admittedly, you could have something like short-lived Norse presence in Nantes (that Saxons settled, or at least the countryside, OTL). But they may have been more bullied than OTL Bretons : Saxons OTL managed to keep a presence in Normandy/Loire as they were used as a defense against Bretons raids.
Maritime based Saxons (I don't see why they would have turned entierly terrestrial, at least at the beggining, when it was their main advantage) could have encountered serious Frankish threat and without support from close back land (as Britain was used OTL) would have a relative hard time.

Still, yes, it's possible to have S-E Brittany and Loire's mouth having a Saxon presence, being eventually known as "Armorica Saxonia" or something close to it.
I would think, however, that regarding the huge difference between Britain and Gaul in matter of population, military forces, etc that they would be more or less absorbated into Gallo-Frankish population around the VII century with all non-Frankish germanic populations.
 
It's a common cliché on EMA AH actually : Migration Period doesn't mean that anything can happen for no reason whatsoever.

* * *

I would think, however, that regarding the huge difference between Britain and Gaul in matter of population, military forces, etc that they would be more or less absorbated into Gallo-Frankish population around the VII century with all non-Frankish germanic populations.

Most of your points are good, and I appreciate you identifying your sources; I'll just respond to two comments.

I said almost anything can happen because there are so many independent actors in Gaul after 406 that the number of possible combinations between them, and the outcomes of any clashes, are unpredictable. I wouldn't think that an alliance of Saxons, Romans and Burgundians knocking the Salian Franks out early is too much of a stretch, and if it is there are other potential allies (Visigoths, Frisians, freelance Huns) that can tip the balance even further. Even allowing for the Saxons being one of the smaller actors, their assistance would have sufficient value to their allies to leverage them a kingdom somewhere on the northern coast.

I can't offer anything useful on the demographic date because I have no idea how the populations of Gaul and Britain in the 5th century have been determined, who did it, and with what degree of confidence. Same for the numbers of Franks and Saxons. [Overall, I'd guess that there were far more Gallo-Romans in Gaul than all the invaders combined, yet the barbarians prevailed.]

Much of the population isn't going to be a factor, though. Communications between different parts of France had been disrupted, so by the 460s, the Romans would not have been able to move an army from the Mediterranean to respond to Saxons and Franks in the North.

Your point that the Saxons would be absorbed into the Gallo-Franks is reasonable (although developing into an early version of Normandy might be another outcome), but for the purposes of this thread it doesn't matter so long as they end up in Gaul rather than England.
 
I said almost anything can happen because there are so many independent actors in Gaul after 406 that the number of possible combinations between them, and the outcomes of any clashes, are unpredictable.
I don't think it's really unpredictable : some peoples, like Saxons, are relative newcomers with a superficial presence, while others like Franks or Burgondians have a settled presence in Gaul since the III/IV century (the system of laete, by exemple). A frankish defeat would have carried less consequences for them than a saxon one.
Having the numbers, the presence, the legitimacy (after the roman withdraw of Gaul, only the Franks and Burgondians in the North are recognized by the imperial court, the Visigoths being more or less so, and the Gallo-Roman militias totally ignored) and the military coherence (the Frankish kings being, basically, at the head of germano-roman armies as they were before the fall of the Empire, with the same organisation and tactics) for them, I don't think it could end in totally random outcome.

Rather than combinations, league-like (germanic league worked as people shared or a parenty, or enough similarities between them), I could see an alliance at the time of Childeric with Deols being lost by Visigoths (galileo-034's original idea, btw), Saxons being present in southern Armorica and Loire Valley, serving as Gallo-Roman militias as client states of Franks (instead of Syagrius being a client of Visigoths) that could end for Saxons as being the equivalent of Thuringians or Bavarians in the West.

I mean, it would make sense with the historical situation, and how Saxons managed to enter in a territory.

I wouldn't think that an alliance of Saxons, Romans and Burgundians knocking the Salian Franks out early is too much of a stretch,
I don't see an alliance lead by Romans that went against Franks, really honestly. They were simply the most loyal army present in Gaul, the only with Burgondians to not being Arians (different religion being a mark of independence towards court), and a relative stable element.

I can't offer anything useful on the demographic date because I have no idea how the populations of Gaul and Britain in the 5th century have been determined, who did it, and with what degree of confidence. Same for the numbers of Franks and Saxons.
It's at best guesstimates, honestly. But it's not out of nowhere ones : we have relativly ( relativly is the important part, of course) good enough knowledge of Roman population, and estimations (with numbers of "fires") of Classical/Late Middle Ages periods (by exemple, you couldn't have more than 2 millions in Britain at the time the Doomsday Book was made, so probably less in earlier times without real clue about how much).
Knowing more or less where epidemics strike, where agriculture decline, which aeras are abandnoned...
Of course archeology is limited, in that there's so many things that were discovered or that can't be : but in the actual situation, it can give an overhall appreciation (that could be challenged in case of new discoveries, of course)
So, while 1/2 millions in Early Middle Ages Britain is a large fork, it's at least a plausible estimate for a period and a region that have little direct sources. Actually better than for Gaul, that seems to have less suffered from that but whom direct soruces lack precise stuff : a fork between 5/7 is the best you can find.

For the germanic and Barbaricum peoples, however, it's clearly a wild guess until they enter in Romania.

[Overall, I'd guess that there were far more Gallo-Romans in Gaul than all the invaders combined, yet the barbarians prevailed.]
Actually, they didn't. Not really : Gallo-Roman and Frankish elites, then population, eventually merged in the VII century (in the north calling themselves "Franks", in the south "Romans"). The same happened for virtually any germanic group that converted eventually to catholicism.

Much of the population isn't going to be a factor, though. Communications between different parts of France had been disrupted, so by the 460s, the Romans would not have been able to move an army from the Mediterranean to respond to Saxons and Franks in the North.
Of course, not because communications were that disrupted at this time (the Frankish campaigns against Visigoths, or the frequent moves in Italy would tend to show the contrary, as well the regular exchanges between Clovis and southern Gallo-Roman elites), but because the Franks were already the Roman army in Gaul, in title as in facts.

Your point that the Saxons would be absorbed into the Gallo-Franks is reasonable (although developing into an early version of Normandy might be another outcome), but for the purposes of this thread it doesn't matter so long as they end up in Gaul rather than England.
The thing is, Saxon population in Gaul being maintained thanks to Saxon presence in Britain, you would need Saxons in Britain strong enough anyway would it be only to serves as "jumpgate" : the ships capacity of the V/VI not allowing massive waves on long-range scale. (Admittedly, you could have such exceptionnal expedition, yes. But the best chance of Saxons in Gaul is not to make them appear as a more important threat than other neighbor of Germano-Franks.)
 
Not sure if this has been raised, but the only way I can see to keep the British Isles 'un-Germanified', which I think is the goal of the OP, is to stop the population pressures which pushed the expansion of the Germanic tribes out of their homelands in the first place. Aside from re-directing the movements of these south (Gaul, Italia) or east (lands of the Magyars or wherever), which seems a little flimsy anyway, as if some tribes are moving in one direction, other tribes are bound to be heading in another, the only real achievable way of getting this to happen (or rather not happen), would be to batter the power of the Germanic tribes away. The Roman Empire probably wouldn't have been able to do this without a really early POD, which might have enabled them to subjugate these tribes, or at least put enough effort into trying to weaken them significantly. A more likely candidate would be prolonged warfare against a group such as the Huns, with a warzone spreading evermore westwards. The only downside of this would be actually pushing the Germanic lads west into the British Isles, so hopefully (for the aims of this scenario) that wouldn't happen.
 
Not sure if this has been raised, but the only way I can see to keep the British Isles 'un-Germanified', which I think is the goal of the OP, is to stop the population pressures which pushed the expansion of the Germanic tribes out of their homelands in the first place.
It would be hard to stop it completly, seeing how the main reason for the migrations in Barbaricum was first the climatic changes that or forced populations to move in better lands (moving then the peoples inhabiting there, as a cueball) or directly when their homelands were, by exemple flooded.
Of course, in order to not make things anyhow easier, it was the case of the Saxons.

would be to batter the power of the Germanic tribes away.
The only thing I can think of that would most certainly prevent that would be the Rome being weaker in first place and not able to reach Rhine or Danube (something hard to do, if it already taken over Mediterranean basin), therefore not stabilizing politically and economically the western German peoples.

A more likely candidate would be prolonged warfare against a group such as the Huns
How exactly? I mean, nomadic and steppes empires/peoples aren't particularly fit for prolonged warfare, as there's a lack of infrastructure for that. Without caricaturizing it with "hit and run" campaigns, I've to admit it looked suspiciously as such.
 
I don't see an alliance lead by Romans that went against Franks, really honestly. They were simply the most loyal army present in Gaul, the only with Burgondians to not being Arians (different religion being a mark of independence towards court), and a relative stable element.

The Franks weren't Catholic until the time of Clovis.

In the 460s and 70s, I think that the situation was unstable and everyone acted in their own interest; the Franks could turn on the Romans and vice-versa. I'll offer one scenario that puts them on opposite sides. Gregory of Tours reports that king Childeric was temporarily deposed and Aegidius ruled his territories. Childeric was later restored. I know that most modern historians reject the story, but if it were true it would put the Romans and Franks at odds.

I've contributed all I'm going to on this thread. Since I'm going to be away for the next couple of weeks, you can have the last word if you like.

P.S., The Saxons and Franks were among the allies of the Romans and Visigoths in the war against Attila (source Jordanes), which adds a bit more information on how long the Saxons had been in Gaul.
 
The Franks weren't Catholic until the time of Clovis.
Yes, and Gallo-Roman elites, including religious, preferred Pagans that supported Catholics and could eventually be converted, to Arian germans that definitely would enter in opposition with them and not susceptible to convert themselves in a forseeble future.
Even before Clovis converted, he had the support or at least the benevolent neutrality of Gallic bishops.

Of course, Saxons being pagans too, they could benefit from it (maybe not at the same extent than Franks if they don't recive some acknowledgment earlier, as the Franks recieved) especially if they are directed against Goths along the Loire basin.

I've contributed all I'm going to on this thread. Since I'm going to be away for the next couple of weeks, you can have the last word if you like.
I didn't know it was a matter of last word, honestly. So far, I tought it was about discussing the possibilities and impossibilities of a TL. (Of course, the relative obscurity of this period don't let many people to discuss it in deep)

P.S., The Saxons and Franks were among the allies of the Romans and Visigoths in the war against Attila (source Jordanes), which adds a bit more information on how long the Saxons had been in Gaul.
Well, we agreed that Saxons were present since the V century in Gaul, and while Jordanes (as Procope) could confuse many North Sea peoples under its name (admittedly, the Saxons in Britain were probably of mixed origin as well).
 
Is there any way that the Saxons et al could have been culturally absorbed by the Romano-Brits? So the migrations still took place but the germanic culture didn't take hold. So something similar to what happened in France.
 
Is there any way that the Saxons et al could have been culturally absorbed by the Romano-Brits? So the migrations still took place but the germanic culture didn't take hold. So something similar to what happened in France.

Well, germanic culture did take hold in France. Names, institutions, etc. were mix of roman and germanic ones with a great importance from the latter.
After all the name of the country isn't Gallie or Gaule now.

Now, is something comparable doable? Theorically, it is, critically if one group recieve some sort of acknowledgment from Rome before the V century.
The big difference for local elites is that they don't have much other threat apart Saxons, when Franks could be played against Goths and North Sea peoples.

Maybe a bigger Gaelic threat, more inner chaos, an easier Saxon penetration (that would force to stretch them) and if possible the devellopment of a British heresy (or the evolution of Insular Christianities from something really close to roman one to something quite unorthodox) in order to have an incitative to convert and support a Catholic Saxon leader.

It's really generic, and i'm not sure it could do it entierly (without some constant work on it) but, it could do it for a mix between Britto-Romans and Saxons in the VI/VII century.
 
I asked because I'm sure I read somewhere that the people who actually worked the land were mainly the same people who had done it during the Roman period and before. They just adapted to a new set of landlords so to speak.So if the British infrastucture had been at least as resilient as the Gaulish one?
 
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