WI: No Saladin?
- Thread starter maverick
- Start date
Well IIRC, Saladin was the one who overthrew the Fatimids, and unless the Fatimids are overthrown by somebody else at that time (the most likely person would be Saladin's uncle Shirkuh, who was another capable general in the service of Nur ad-Din and fought alongside Saladin when he conquered Egypt in OTL), it is quite likely that the Fatimid Caliphate will remain around for a bit longer, most propably making it into the 13th century.
The Muslim powers in the region at the time were notoriously weak and divided amongst themselves,
and I don't see any of them overthrow the Fatimids if Nur ad-Din doesn't manage to do this.
So the main effects of a "no Saladin"-POD would be - aside from the fact that we'd lose one of the very few Muslims that were famous and celebrated in Medieval Europe - the Muslims propably failing to take Jerusalem from the Crusaders (and therefore more successful Crusader states), a surviving Fatimid Caliphate that most propably remains weak, some surviving Zengid states or statelets (all the Zengid domains were seized by Saladin after the death of Nur ad-Din), a surviving Christian Nubian kingdom of Makuria (which was subjugated by Saladin in OTL), and most importantly: no Mamluks taking over in Egypt.
Now especially that last thing will have a serious impact on developments in the 13th century;
in less than a century, Hulegu Khan will come along, rampaging throughout the heart of the Muslim world.
And instead of the strong Mamluk sultanate he met in OTL, he and his forces are going to meet a weak Fatimid Caliphate...
...and if the Mongols under Hulegu Khan or any of Hulegu's successors take Egypt (wich will still be a tough job for the Mongols, but nonetheless a whole lot easier than it was in OTL), then, save for the Khanate of the Golden Horde, all major Muslim powers in the region are gone, and you bet that that will have a major impact on future developments!
The Muslim powers in the region at the time were notoriously weak and divided amongst themselves,
and I don't see any of them overthrow the Fatimids if Nur ad-Din doesn't manage to do this.
So the main effects of a "no Saladin"-POD would be - aside from the fact that we'd lose one of the very few Muslims that were famous and celebrated in Medieval Europe - the Muslims propably failing to take Jerusalem from the Crusaders (and therefore more successful Crusader states), a surviving Fatimid Caliphate that most propably remains weak, some surviving Zengid states or statelets (all the Zengid domains were seized by Saladin after the death of Nur ad-Din), a surviving Christian Nubian kingdom of Makuria (which was subjugated by Saladin in OTL), and most importantly: no Mamluks taking over in Egypt.
Now especially that last thing will have a serious impact on developments in the 13th century;
in less than a century, Hulegu Khan will come along, rampaging throughout the heart of the Muslim world.
And instead of the strong Mamluk sultanate he met in OTL, he and his forces are going to meet a weak Fatimid Caliphate...
...and if the Mongols under Hulegu Khan or any of Hulegu's successors take Egypt (wich will still be a tough job for the Mongols, but nonetheless a whole lot easier than it was in OTL), then, save for the Khanate of the Golden Horde, all major Muslim powers in the region are gone, and you bet that that will have a major impact on future developments!
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I like.Keenir
Banned
would the Fatimids be able to make themselves stronger in time to face the Mongols?
what was Saladin's attitude to the Assassins?
and could either of the Old Man(s) try to take control of Egypt, in an attempt to reunite their branch of the Shi'ite family?
just wondering.
A Fatimid restoration would not be impossible, but it would not be very likely.
And even if a powerful Caliph would arise, the Fatimids would still never become such a formidable opponent to the Mongols as the Mamluks were. The whole Mamluk government was effectively a militairy aristocracy, and I doubt a better and more dedicated army existed in the Muslim world at the time.
And then there is also another problem all Fatimid Caliphs had to deal with: they were Shi'ites, and the Shi'ites have never been the majority in Egypt, so they always had a large Sunni community and possible religious tensions to deal with, unlike the Mamluks, who were themselves Sunnites.
Well, the Assassins had tried to kill him several times, and it appears that they nearly succeeded in that a few times.
Consequently, Saladin organized a few campaigns againest the Assassins, although with little success, IIRC.
Not quite likely, the Assassins were enemies of the Fatimids too (one of their victims was the Fatimid vizier al-Afdal)
And maybe, just maybe the Assassins would succeed in taking control of the Fatimid Caliphate,
but I don't see that happening unless the Fatimid Caliphate pretty much collapses first.
And even then, a good majority of the Egyptian Muslims at the time were Sunnites, and they weren't exactly waiting for another Shi'ite government, especially one that is dominated by the Assassins, who were commonly reviled by the other Muslims.
Still, it might not be impossible, but it is defintely one of the more unlikely scenario's.
Well, regarding that pretty much all sources describe him as a devout and pious Muslim, I guess the most plausible POD for that would be to let him be captured by some Christian faction as a child, and let him be raised as a Christian.
...but of course, that would make Saladin a completely different person...
I don't think the Crusader states have much to gain here in terms of breathing space. Fatimid Egypt could have succumbed to internal as well as external takeover, and even in Saladin's absemce there is no guarantee that a capable successor to Shirkuh is not found. Any powerful Muslim leader in the area will use fighting the Franks to solidify his support and expand his power base, and Outremer would need much better leaders and much more military might than it had to withstand even pressure from someone with Nur-ed-Din's resources. Of course if Shirkuh's successors blow it, there is a chance of another generation or so of a Frankish Jerusalem (though they'd probably still lose the odd city and castle). With a lot of luck all the way to when the Mongols come. By that time I suspect Egypt will already have passed into someone's hands (a Syrian warleader, or a native revolutionary dynasty - maybe a Sunni group?).
Mongol Egypt would be bad news for Outremer. Combine a high rate of conversion to Islam with a strong military ethos and a tradition of warfare that owes more to the steppes than the mediterranean and you have - Baybars, basically, but with a lot more hinterland to draw on.
Mongol Egypt would be bad news for Outremer. Combine a high rate of conversion to Islam with a strong military ethos and a tradition of warfare that owes more to the steppes than the mediterranean and you have - Baybars, basically, but with a lot more hinterland to draw on.