WI: No Sakoku and the Philippines

I read from one of the people I talked to a decade ago that the occupation of coastal/lowland luzon by the spanish was one of the reasons of Sakoku, what if the Spanish were not able to colonize the northern half of Luzon due to Tarik Soliman surviving and uniting the Northern half, would the Japanese still close to the outside world?
 
I read from one of the people I talked to a decade ago that the occupation of coastal/lowland luzon by the spanish was one of the reasons of Sakoku, what if the Spanish were not able to colonize the northern half of Luzon due to Tarik Soliman surviving and uniting the Northern half, would the Japanese still close to the outside world?

It might or it might not be possible but it is like playing dice like a one-hundred sided die. Sakoku came about as a way to curb foreign influences in the Tokugawa Shogunate and prevent anything to disrupt the peace. However, the Tokugawa clan was just a small regional power by 1564 and 1570 when the Spanish first took territory and seized southern Luzon respectively, so from 1564 anything goes, while by 1570 it depends on what happens to the Oda clan.
 
It might or it might not be possible but it is like playing dice like a one-hundred sided die. Sakoku came about as a way to curb foreign influences in the Tokugawa Shogunate and prevent anything to disrupt the peace. However, the Tokugawa clan was just a small regional power by 1564 and 1570 when the Spanish first took territory and seized southern Luzon respectively, so from 1564 anything goes, while by 1570 it depends on what happens to the Oda clan.
I am actually asking because my timeline which is about that premise still has the Tokugawas.
 
I am actually asking because my timeline which is about that premise still has the Tokugawas.

It is difficult to make that jump in all honesty. By 1570 the Tokugawa were confined to Mikawa and Totomi, their dominance was unlikely it took the Oda clan collapsing, Hideyoshi giving Ieyasu a power base in Kanto, sending his western allies to Korea while Ieyasu stayed home, and for Hideaki Kobayakawa to defect at Sekigahara, all over 30 years. If you have a major butterfly net that assumes all of this still happens, I'm willing to say yes Sakoku still happens.
 
If you want no Sakoku, kasumigenx, you need a clan with legitimacy and stability to take control, like, say, the Imagawas in @BBadolato's TL. With that, it is possible for Japan to interfere in the affairs of other nations.
 
To be honest, surviving Oda OR Toyotomi as shoguns would probably lead to no Sakoku. Both really really wanted to rule the world after all so they'll probably join in the Great Game of the 17th century (which, if the experiences of the Moluccas and other MSE is a guide, pitting Portuguese and Spanish against each other).
But I guess no Spanish Philippines, with Luzon being divided into a Northern Sinosphere states and Southern Muslim states would avert Catholics having a major foothold in the region, lessening the threat of Kiristanis and averting one of the major reason for Sakoku too.

Hmm.
 
To be honest, surviving Oda OR Toyotomi as shoguns would probably lead to no Sakoku. Both really really wanted to rule the world after all so they'll probably join in the Great Game of the 17th century (which, if the experiences of the Moluccas and other MSE is a guide, pitting Portuguese and Spanish against each other).
But I guess no Spanish Philippines, with Luzon being divided into a Northern Sinosphere states and Southern Muslim states would avert Catholics having a major foothold in the region, lessening the threat of Kiristanis and averting one of the major reason for Sakoku too.

Hmm.
The Northern State would not be Sinosphere State since Luzon would be divided between Tarik's men(North) and Bruneians(South), however the Visayan and Butuan states might be the one under the Sinosphere since the Spanish are absent in this scenario.

The question is if Bruneians would pose a threat to the Japanese?
 
Probably not, Brunei will be busy uniting their portion of Luzon, various islands, and Borneo together.
there could be Malay trading colonies up north though, in Formosa and Okinawa.
Tarik and his men are at peace with the Bruneians when the Spanish came, so yes they are not a obstacle to Bruneian expansion.
 
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