WI:No Saguntum Tripwire

Roman envoys met with Hasdrubal Barca at New Carthage in 226 to work out a settlement granting Carthage dominance south of the Spanish River Ebro, and ensuring that they were formally prohibited from expanding their holdings north of the river. It's believed by many that Rome established its relationship with Saguntum just before the signing of this treaty.

But what if Rome hadn't made an alliance with Saguntum? What if Rome had simply arranged for the signing of the Ebro Treaty and left Spain alone? Could Rome have accepted Carthaginian domination of Spain? Would Hannibal have been contented with conquering the Iberian penninsula along with the wealth and manpower that came with it?

Discuss the possibilities that could have arisen with no Saguntum Tripwire. Note: I've included now one scenario taking Hannibal into Italy in early October of 216.
 
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Wasn't Hannibal spoiling for a fight against Rome in order to get revenge for the 1st Punic War? If that's the case it seems likely that he'll just find some other pretext to start war if Saguntum isn't an issue.
 
Wasn't Hannibal spoiling for a fight against Rome in order to get revenge for the 1st Punic War? If that's the case it seems likely that he'll just find some other pretext to start war if Saguntum isn't an issue.

Everything points to Hannibal eventually targeting Rome, and that he knew war with Rome was likely if he attacked Saguntum. Yet I'm not convinced that Hannibal wouldn't have liked it otherwise, that is, that he would've preferred to take Saguntum and solidify Carthaginian control south of the Ebro before unleashing his army on Italy. As it was Rome was using Saguntum to tamper with Carthaginian influence, so Hannibal couldn't let it sit.
 
Everything points to Hannibal eventually targeting Rome, and that he knew war with Rome was likely if he attacked Saguntum. Yet I'm not convinced that Hannibal wouldn't have liked it otherwise, that is, that he would've preferred to take Saguntum and solidify Carthaginian control south of the Ebro before unleashing his army on Italy. As it was Rome was using Saguntum to tamper with Carthaginian influence, so Hannibal couldn't let it sit.
You've got a point; Hannibal certainly wouldn't mind being able to remove Saguntum and tighten his hold on Iberia without a Roman response. In that case, we see the Second Punic War starting a few years later, with Carthage in a stronger position in Spain ... how does that alter the course of the war?
 
You've got a point; Hannibal certainly wouldn't mind being able to remove Saguntum and tighten his hold on Iberia without a Roman response. In that case, we see the Second Punic War starting a few years later, with Carthage in a stronger position in Spain ... how does that alter the course of the war?

Exactly. How does it alter the course of the war? Consider some possibilities. 1) Would Carthage have made use of the time and money to rebuild its fleet? If so, a larger fleet may have made an a naval landing in northern Italy a consideration for Hannibal, say in the area of Genoa where Mago later landed in OTL. 2) Would the army that Hannibal commanded after 3 or 4 more years of fighting been even better than what he took during 218 in OTL? 3) When Hannibal leaves for Italy how much better prepared are the officers and the forces he leaves behind to defend Iberia? 4) If Hannibal still invades Italy via land does he get across the Alps before winter sets in? If so, this could add something like 10,000 more veteran troops to his invasion force. In OTL Hannibal's army was so beat up when he reached Cisalpine Italy that his allies (Boii and Insubres) were a tad reluctant to jump on board-Hannibal had to prompt them to follow through. 5) In OTL Rome sent an army to Sicily to prepare for an invasion of Africa. Had the timing been more on Hannibal's side, it's a strong possibility that this army wouldn't have been sent to Sicily, thus Carthage may have had an immediate opportunity to jump into Sicily earlier and with a larger navy. Consider also that instead a larger force awaited Hannibal in northern Italy. It's conceivable then that Hannibal would have destroyed an army twice the size of the one he actually defeated at Trebbia.

That is a partial summation of the effects of No Saguntum Tripwire on the early stages of the war. It can be taken further I think....
 
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One possible scenario with No Saguntum Tripwire

216 Hannibal has secured Carthaginian conquests of eastern and central Iberia. Rome had recently captured Carthaginian agents in Gaul, though they reported they were merely recruiting troops for Hannibal’s Iberian war. This gave the Roman Senate pause for concern, so an embassy was sent to New Carthage to meet with Hannibal.

In April 216 Hannibal received the Roman embassy as his army was gathering for the coming campaign season. The embassy related concerns about the Ebro Treaty and his contact with Gauls in northern Italy

Hannibal brusquely responded that Rome had consistently interjected itself into Carthaginian affairs; he would tolerate it no longer. He claimed also that since the Ebro Treaty wasn’t valid until ratified in Carthage, there was nothing preventing him from moving north of the Ebro.

Hannibal dismissed the Roman embassy as he prepared his 120,000 man army to invade Italy.

His march went smoothly, and he arrived in Gaullic territory of Italy in early October. The Romans were alerted to Hannibal's movements by Massillia, so 3 legions were drawn up to meet Hannibal in Trans Alpine Gaul; Hannibal took the Alps, so the Roman forces withdrew to Cisalpine Gaul, joining a legion already there.


When Hannibal descended the Alps he had 45,000 troops, including 8,000 cavalry. The Gauls immediately swelled his ranks to 60,000.

Near the OTL site of Trebbia, the Roman army of 54,000 met Hannibal's. By tactics similar to those in OTL, the Roman army was smashed: 39,000 Romans were killed/captured and barely 15,000 escaped. Hannibal lost 2,000.


It was late October, and there were no Roman forces between Hannibal and Etruria.....

Meanwhile Rome turned away a large Carthaginian fleet attempting to land an army in Sicliy.
 
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Hashasheen

Banned
Why march? with a larger army, he could stay on the defensive and bleed them out, or travel with a large fleet to the north and begin marching south.
 
Why march? with a larger army, he could stay on the defensive and bleed them out, or travel with a large fleet to the north and begin marching south.

Rome could mobilize too much manpower for Hannibal to sit back in Spain and wait. 750,000 troops were available to Rome at the beginning of the war in OTL, though clearly not all could be mobilized at once. Further, once the war advanced Rome would not only send troops to Spain but to Africa as well. Hannibal wanted Rome on the defensive trying to protect its allies and food supply.

Now if Carthage used the extra money and time (3 years) to build up its fleet (as I hinted at with a large Carthaginian fleet going to Sicily), then perhaps Hannibal would have gone by sea as he had a greater element of surprise than in OTL. The problem with that option is that it would have decreased the size of the army he could bring with him, particularly cavalry. The cavalry needed transports, so the sea invasion becomes even riskier with 8,000-9,000 cavalry on board. If the fleet was attacked, protecting those transports becomes a problem.

Add in Hannibal's elephants and sea transport becomes impossible.
 
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Reducing the size of the cavalry corps in Hannibal's army in order to make a sea invasion possible would have definate negative effects on the performance of his army in Italy; victories like Cannae were driven in part by Hannibal's cavalry superiority over the Romans.
 
Reducing the size of the cavalry corps in Hannibal's army in order to make a sea invasion possible would have definate negative effects on the performance of his army in Italy; victories like Cannae were driven in part by Hannibal's cavalry superiority over the Romans.

What might be possible using the fleet would be for Hannibal to arrange for reinforcements coming from Spain, but again, this depends entirely upon Carthage building up its fleet and sparing some ships for Hannibal to use in the northern Med.
 
Another Possible Scenario

I'd seen a suggestion on another thread presenting the possibility that Hannibal might have constructed his own fleet of triremes. Say this were done by Hasdrubal in order to reinforce Hannibal by sea, and that Carthage had built up its own navy with the extra 3 years thus providing some naval competition with Rome.

Would this tactic have allowed Hannibal to receive reinforcements from Spain later during the campaign, or would Rome have won back control of the sea too quickly to allow it?
 
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