WI: No Rwanda/Buruni Presidential assassination

April 6th 1994 saw one of the most momentous events in African history of the last 20 years, when the plan carrying President Juvenal Habyarimana of Rwanda and President Cyprien Ntaryamira of Burundi was shot down by still unknown assassins, killing both of them. Habyarimana had been President of Rwanda since 1974, but had moved from a relatively moderate regime to one which increasingly favoured a small group of close supporters, all Hutus of extreme ethnocentric viewpoints. Ntaryamira meanwhile was a compromise candidate selected to end the civil war that had been sparked by the election, and subsequent assassination, of Melchior Ndadaye the previous October.

The assassination was to prove to have some of the bloodiest consequences in history, being the direct catalyst for both the Rwandan Genocide and the reintensification of the Burundian Civil War which would last for another decade, and in turn pretty much directly leading onto the First Congo War.

So, assuming the plane lands successfully at Kigali, what are the effects?
 
April 6th 1994 saw one of the most momentous events in African history of the last 20 years, when the plan carrying President Juvenal Habyarimana of Rwanda and President Cyprien Ntaryamira of Burundi was shot down by still unknown assassins, killing both of them. Habyarimana had been President of Rwanda since 1974, but had moved from a relatively moderate regime to one which increasingly favoured a small group of close supporters, all Hutus of extreme ethnocentric viewpoints. Ntaryamira meanwhile was a compromise candidate selected to end the civil war that had been sparked by the election, and subsequent assassination, of Melchior Ndadaye the previous October.

The assassination was to prove to have some of the bloodiest consequences in history, being the direct catalyst for both the Rwandan Genocide and the reintensification of the Burundian Civil War which would last for another decade, and in turn pretty much directly leading onto the First Congo War.

So, assuming the plane lands successfully at Kigali, what are the effects?

I think the genocide was hardly a spontanious event. There is a great deal of evidence that it had been planned as early as 1990. This article gives a chilling account:

The Rwandan Government was heavily involved during 1993 in buying military equipment: arms and ammunition. This is shown by the funds of 2.5-billion Rwandese francs, paid to Dominique Lemaunier, a French businessman, who was supposed to deliver the equipment. It was Marc RUGENERA, by then Finance Minister, who signed the contract for the purchases on the Government side. The deal was followed up by Lt.- Col. Kayumba Cyprien of the FAR (Rwandan Armed Forces).
In March 1994, arms purchased in Egypt and sent to Kigali by a British aircraft were distributed to the Interahamwe militia of Pres. Habyalimana’s political party, the MRND. These Interahamwe militia units were being trained militarily and receiving arms and ammunition specifically to undertake a genocidal assault against the nation’s Tutsi population. They also planned a massacre of some political opposition leaders, including those who happened to be moderate Hutu. At the same time the Interahamwe were recruiting, with their numbers growing to 50,000. Army (FAR) Reservists, too, were given instructions to train the Interahamwe. All prefectures of Rwanda received funds from the Government, to distribute to the Interahamwe.
President Habyalimana in 1993, meanwhile, deliberately delayed the implementation of the Arusha Peace Accords, in order to allow more time for his Army units and militias to prepare for the coming mass destruction.
Radio Television of Mille Collines (RTLM) was strengthened in human and financial terms from the Akazu (clan, support base) of Habyalimana, specifically to propagate ethnic hatred against the Tutsi and to mobilize all Hutu extremists favoring the genocide against the Tutsi population.

To be honest, I think it would have still happened. Perhaps not as brutal. But it would happen. The trigger would be a battlefield defeat as opposed to the shooting down of the plane. The RPF and Paul Kagame were winning the war in 1994, I predict a major victory on the battlefield for the RPF which would in turn trigger the genocide.
 
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