I'm specifically interested in how this would impact Russia, though naturally I wouldn't mind information on the rest of the world either.
WI no Russo-Japanese War?
- Thread starter PobreCesar
- Start date
No Anglo-Japanese alliance since that came about after. But Russia probably gets curbstomped in whatever sparks ww1 ttl given the lack of necessary reforms
Realistically, the only way Japan makes nice with Russia is if Russia pulls up stakes in Korea and lets the Japanese do their thing.
The Russian Revolution would be delayed.
Korea would have become part of the Russian Empire instead of the Japanese Empire.
Korea would have become part of the Russian Empire instead of the Japanese Empire.
RJW was a unneccessary war. Tsar should have accepted Japanese deal(Manchuria in Russian SoI, Korea in Japan SoI).
Japanese war cost 170 million £ , of which 80 million £ were from foreign debt(mostly from USA). Japan public debt to gdp ratio rose from %25 to %70. Debt ratio reduced to pre-RJW level in 1919. Apperently it was a very expensive victory. Considering Japan still could have taken Korea even without war if Tsar weren't delusional.
ITTL by 1914 Japan would have been much more powerful than OTL.
Japanese war cost 170 million £ , of which 80 million £ were from foreign debt(mostly from USA). Japan public debt to gdp ratio rose from %25 to %70. Debt ratio reduced to pre-RJW level in 1919. Apperently it was a very expensive victory. Considering Japan still could have taken Korea even without war if Tsar weren't delusional.
ITTL by 1914 Japan would have been much more powerful than OTL.
Without the Russo-Japanese War, Russia will be perceived to be more powerful than it actually is, and Russia will think itself more powerful than it actually is. Very bad combination. An Anglo-Russian agreement on Persia is less likely based on Russian overconfidence.
The UK grows more fond of Germany, considered less of a threat. In alt-WWI, the Anglo-German-Japanese-Austrian alliance curbstomps the Franco-Russian alliance, to the surprise of everyone that was expecting a stronger Russia.
The UK grows more fond of Germany, considered less of a threat. In alt-WWI, the Anglo-German-Japanese-Austrian alliance curbstomps the Franco-Russian alliance, to the surprise of everyone that was expecting a stronger Russia.
McPherson
Banned
Defacto, the British and Japanese were anti-RUSSIAN with the battleship deal being negotiated around 1898...
Formalized the defactor understanding.
Couple of things.
1. US wanted to underwrite foreign debt in that time frame for balance of payments reasons because the Spanish American War and the First Filipino American War was VERY expensive.
2. Nicky the Nut was possibly the most incompetent of a whole series of incompetent European leaders in the era. By the metric of nutty Kaiser Bill Number Two, Nicky was completely looney tune. His ministers were WORSE.
Addenda.
Japan was spending up to 50% of her revenues on her navy. That is a LOT, even by UK Edwardian standards. She continued this ruinous practice all the way to WWII. So if she "appeared" powerful on paper, it was "on paper". One more month of the RTL RJW and she would have been economically Venezuelaed. It was that close for Tokyo, before Teddy Roosevelt staged his publicity stunt and managed to convince both sides to accept a peace of exhaustion.
That would be a heinously one-sided version of World War One.
Would the United States have a significantly weaker economy ITTL due to the differing debt?
McPherson
Banned
No. The concern was balance of payments (about 2% of total net), not danger of national economic collapse as both Japan and Russia faced. The Americans were in a naval buildup, like Japan, but unlike Japan, the expenditure was about 8% of the total US revenue stream for financing the USN.
The 1905 Russian Revolution doesn't happen (since it was triggered by the Russian loss in the RJW).
As a result, there is no October Manifesto, no 1906 Constitution, no State Duma, and political parties wouldn't form. Several political assassinations wouldn't happen.
en.wikipedia.org
There's a whole load of butterflies just for Russia.
As a result, there is no October Manifesto, no 1906 Constitution, no State Duma, and political parties wouldn't form. Several political assassinations wouldn't happen.
Russian Revolution of 1905 - Wikipedia
There's a whole load of butterflies just for Russia.
Even if they are bigger headed, would France and Russia actually go to war with Germany, Austria, Britain, and Japan at the same time? The OE Empire would probably be a part of that bloc as well, with Italy leaning in either direction.
If France lost they could find themselves losing colonies to Britain, Germany, and Japan (in addition to potentially losing land to Germany and Italy in Europe).
I‘m skeptical that a 1914 Russia might think it can stall the entire Japanese military, defend Central Asia from Britain, defeat close to half of the German army and most of the AH army, and be prepared to deal with the entire OE military at the same time. It seems more likely that such an alliance would scare Russia or France into an alternate system.
The 1905 Russian Revolution doesn't happen (since it was triggered by the Russian loss in the RJW).
As a result, there is no October Manifesto, no 1906 Constitution, no State Duma, and political parties wouldn't form. Several political assassinations wouldn't happen.
Russian Revolution of 1905 - Wikipedia
There's a whole load of butterflies just for Russia.
Revolution of 1905 started BEFORE the end of RJW. Political situation in Russia was unstable and moving towards revolutions since at least 1902 according to one authors and since 1899 (major student riots and massive unrest) according to others. Military victories would neither hinder nor stop revolutionary movement.
Potentially different Anglo-French entente, because of less hurry to come to terms to avoid being dragged in to the war.
No OTL Moroccan crisis since Germany is not in a position to bluff with a threat of war.
Russian foreign policy focus returns to Central Asia and the Balkans.
Russian naval programme that worried the British pre-RJW continues.
German military leadership will be even more pessimistic regarding their chances for a quick victory.
edit: yes, I'm writing a TL about this POD.
No OTL Moroccan crisis since Germany is not in a position to bluff with a threat of war.
Russian foreign policy focus returns to Central Asia and the Balkans.
Russian naval programme that worried the British pre-RJW continues.
German military leadership will be even more pessimistic regarding their chances for a quick victory.
edit: yes, I'm writing a TL about this POD.
BooNZ
Banned
Yes, definitely excluding Russia and potentially replacing France with Germany. Overall an Anglo-German reconciliation will be in the best interests of Russia, because together they are likely to curtail Russian adventurism - for all its enthusiasm, Russia was the least equipped/prepared/suited for war.
An earlier Butterfly might be the OTL A-H annexation of B-H for similar reasons. It could go anywhere.
Russian foreign policy was continually active in the Balkans.
Probably
Unless, the price of the German sword on the continent is a serious Anglo-German relationship.
Excellent!
France would be too dangerous with a strong Russian alliance to be left aloof as a potential hostile. And as long as France and Germany are at odds, Russia has the perceived luxury of keeping Germany honest. In OTL Britain approached Russia when she did both to get a good deal while Russia was weak, and to prop up Russia as a counterbalance to Germany.
The earlier policy of keeping Balkans on ice and cooperating with Vienna was replaced by Pan-Slavic coalition building after the RJW.
The pro-German British politicians could never provide a good reason for Germany to bind herself to such an uncertain deal with a power that could do next to nothing decisive to support her in a quick war.