WI: No Russo-Japanese War
- Thread starter Ellie
- Start date
Russia swang between Far East focus and Euro focus, so logically nothing else changed, it remains Far East focused. Japan either has a failure of nerve or an internationally brokered solution is brought about for Korea. What it would mean is growing Russian influence and power in this theatre, and less Russian focus on the West, ie Balkans
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Well let's say for conversations sake that Russia doesn't force the Triple Intervention and the two powers negotiate a sphere of influence in Korea.
We see a Japan which is still arming itself, but at a considerably slower pace since they don't feel so threatened by the Western powers (and obviously Russia) as well as one which is probably significantly richer due to not bankrupting itself on the war.
Russia OTOH is going to be weaker for the lack of war. Sure this probably butterflies the 1905 revolution, but it also means the Russians never make a number of critical military reforms which means that they have logistical and command problems out the wazoo.
We see a Japan which is still arming itself, but at a considerably slower pace since they don't feel so threatened by the Western powers (and obviously Russia) as well as one which is probably significantly richer due to not bankrupting itself on the war.
Russia OTOH is going to be weaker for the lack of war. Sure this probably butterflies the 1905 revolution, but it also means the Russians never make a number of critical military reforms which means that they have logistical and command problems out the wazoo.
The navy was a curious creature, rapidly modernising but uncertain in which direction to go, and buying a hodge podge of ships from France, USA and even Denmark some of which were excellent, some of which were good but from which Russian designers learned the wrong lessons and some of which were not so good but could perform if crewed well and led well.
Russia did not aim to use the army in a massed war in this theatre, it was forced on them, so where they did aim to intervene it would have been with the best available troops.
None of this matters if they get into a full-blown war, but avoiding one, they could well develop a decent navy and give out the impression of a first class army because nobody ever sees the rest of it
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
I think the easiest route to preventing the war would be to have Russia accept the so-called Man-Kan trade (where Russia would respect Japanese influence in Korea, and Japan would respect Russian influence in Manchuria). That would require huge changes in Russian leadership, though. They were constantly trying to expand their influence in Korea, and they saw no real reason not to try to establish and/or keep Manchuria and Korea in their sphere.
Anyway, assuming the war does not occur for any reason, I wonder if Russia will be stronger or weaker in WW1 (assuming it is not butterflied). On the one hand, the political situation in Russia may be a bit better with no 1905 revolution and no damage to Russia's prestige. On the other hand, Russia does not get the chance to learn from their defeat, so their army may be a bit weaker, their will likely be slower railroad expansion in European Russia.
Anyway, assuming the war does not occur for any reason, I wonder if Russia will be stronger or weaker in WW1 (assuming it is not butterflied). On the one hand, the political situation in Russia may be a bit better with no 1905 revolution and no damage to Russia's prestige. On the other hand, Russia does not get the chance to learn from their defeat, so their army may be a bit weaker, their will likely be slower railroad expansion in European Russia.
One way it could happen
Different leadership in Berlin responds positively to Chamberlain's offers of an alliance with Britain, and as a result, Balfour feels less incentive to create one instead with Japan. A Japan without Britain as a naval ally and benevolent nonbelligerent suddenly might be less eager to take on Russia in a war.
OTOH...an Anglo-German alliance might embolden both countries to challenge Russian ambitions, and that might make Russia a more attractive target for Japanese leaders bent on expansion into Korea and Manchuria.
Nonetheless, it's hard to see Japan and Russia not coming to blows at some point; their ambitions were too directly in conflict with each other. But without that alliance, Japan might wait a while longer before confronting St. Petersburg.
Different leadership in Berlin responds positively to Chamberlain's offers of an alliance with Britain, and as a result, Balfour feels less incentive to create one instead with Japan. A Japan without Britain as a naval ally and benevolent nonbelligerent suddenly might be less eager to take on Russia in a war.
OTOH...an Anglo-German alliance might embolden both countries to challenge Russian ambitions, and that might make Russia a more attractive target for Japanese leaders bent on expansion into Korea and Manchuria.
Nonetheless, it's hard to see Japan and Russia not coming to blows at some point; their ambitions were too directly in conflict with each other. But without that alliance, Japan might wait a while longer before confronting St. Petersburg.
I think that this is potentially, quite an interesting possibility. Probably the biggest stumbling block would be to try and get Russia to negotiate with 'yellow monkeys' as equals; OTL, Russia was simply not willing to do that until their defeat in the Russo-Japanese War. Having said that, I would be curious as to the effect on Japanese politics; as Korea is placed under Japanese dominion, but with Manchuria ever more securely in the Russian camp, how would this effect the ideology of the Hokushin-ron faction in Japanese politics? This faction's targets are no longer held by a relatively weak power, but is now firmly in the sphere of influence of a Great Power, albeit one of the weaker ones.
WRT the effect on Russia, TBH, everything I know suggests that Russia basically learned virtually nothing, militarily at least, from their defeat in the R-J war (neither did Japan, for that matter). There are, however, certain other implications; this could potentially delay by a fair clip the Dreadnaught naval revolution, which has a huge amount of its impetus in the stunning Japanese naval victory at Tsushima (too, this could also do a great deal to cure the myth of invincibility that was pervasive in the IJN following the R-J war, that arguably helped a great deal in fueling militarism in later years). Politically, on the other hand, Russia may or may not still experience the 1905 Russian Revolution. I, for one, think that it is still likely it will happen; while the defeat in the R-J war is often cited as a cause of the 1905 revolution, I think it is important to remember that the underlying issues and some of the most major eruptions occurred long before the truly disastrous defeats of Russia in the war (ie, Bloody Sunday). The loss of the war contributed to the sense of disillusionment with the Czar among the people, but repression, economic stagnation, and calls for reform had just as huge a role in preparing the ground for the 1905 revolution.
BooNZ
Banned
Russia was already up to it's neck in the Balkan 'diplomacy' before the Russo-Japanese war. Without the RJ war, Russia would be even more assertive in the Balkans e.g. I doubt if AH would have the balls to annex Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Similarly, Russia would still be considered at threat by the British, which might butterfly away the Entente...
Sergei Witte - the long serving Russian Minister of Finance until 1903 was strongly against Russian involvement in Korea - or anything that would provoke a war with Japan. If he was not 'promoted' to Chairman of Ministers in 1903 - then common sense may have prevailed and the Man-Kan trade put in place.
Russia's rare attempts at influence in Korea could be described as adventurism and a sideshows only. OTL Russia struggled to administer those parts of Manchuria over which it did have influence, being heavily reliant on local Chinese administrators. The high population density on the Korean peninsular would make it an unattractive proposition - even without Japan aspirations.
With an earlier POD, an decent agreement between Russia and Japan might butterfly away the British-Japanese alliance.
If Russia had effective control of Manchuria and a warm water port, I cant see Russia coveting the heavily populated Korean peninsular. If Russia did, with a mature railway, Japan's position would not be good.
Russian foreign policy was deeply muddled after count Muraviev died (most likely by killing himself in a drunken fit of despair) right in the middle of Boxer Revolution. Witte, Kuropatkin and Lamsdorf all wanted different things, and Japanese leadership had similar problems of factionalism. Groups like the Bezobrazov circle and Amur River Society drove the two countries towards a collision course, and moderating voices (which were present on both sides on high levels) were ignored on critical decisions. But the Russo-Japanese War was far from unavoidable.
I've actually written a little TL about it
Russian foreign policy was deeply muddled after count Muraviev died (most likely by killing himself in a drunken fit of despair) right in the middle of Boxer Revolution. Witte, Kuropatkin and Lamsdorf all wanted different things, and Japanese leadership had similar problems of factionalism. Groups like the Bezobrazov circle and Amur River Society drove the two countries towards a collision course, and moderating voices (which were present on both sides on high levels) were ignored on critical decisions. But the Russo-Japanese War was far from unavoidable.
I've actually written a little TL about it
...and I enjoyed reading it!