Maybe this has been discussed before but the search engine didn't work so I post it here.
What if the R-J war would have been avoided, the Russians coming to an agreement with Japan dividing spheres of influence in the East: Manchuria for Russia and Korea for the Japanese. I can see a role for Sergei Witte here.
So tensions may be still there but having found a solution with the Japanese a war would have been prevented.
What would this mean?
There would be significant butterflies:
1) on the Russian Revolution of 1905
2) on the development of pan-slavism and Russian policies on the Balkan
3) on the Russian army and navy
4) Russian prestige as a strong power
SO, any ideas on this, what would be the maior butterflies??