WI: No Rout of Nicopolis (1396)

I was reading a list of medieval cavalry charges that ended up poorly when the attackers had other options (as in not in a desperate situation where they need to break out or starve or something) and when it got to Nicopolis it said something along the lines of "The French Knights (does anybody see a pattern here?) ignored the advice of Sigismund." The funny thing is that they had some success, killing inexperienced levies and got stopped by some stakes, but they had plenty of time to disengage and regroup after this limited success and a taste of combat.
 
Maybe the problem is with me but Timur was attacking the Ottomans. The Ottomans not haveing won as decisivly against the crusaders and loosing a lot of money for ransom somehow means that they wont face Timur in battle. Somehow they dont have to try to stop his invading force? Is loosing Antolia to him without a serious fight somehow acceptable?
 
Maybe the problem is with me but Timur was attacking the Ottomans. The Ottomans not haveing won as decisivly against the crusaders and loosing a lot of money for ransom somehow means that they wont face Timur in battle. Somehow they dont have to try to stop his invading force? Is loosing Antolia to him without a serious fight somehow acceptable?
I'm not sure. I know little about Ottoman history, but considering what Hardenberg said at the Congress of Vienna about a ruler rather levying higher taxes than losing a province (higher taxes falls on everyone whereas "surrendering"/losing province lost looks bad on the ruler), I could see there being a sort of squabble among the sultan's advisors about whether to carry on besieging at Constantinople or advance into Anatolia. However, since Nicopolis is still a defeat TTL (just less of one) t might be that the Crusaders/Byzzies make an alliance with Timur to pincer the Ottomans
 
Is loosing Antolia to him without a serious fight somehow acceptable?

I doubt it. At that point the islamisation of the Balkans was just in its infancy. To be almost completely depended upon christian vassals would have been dangerous.
The Ottoman Empire needed the great recruiting pool of Asia Minor.
 
Maybe the problem is with me but Timur was attacking the Ottomans. The Ottomans not haveing won as decisivly against the crusaders and loosing a lot of money for ransom somehow means that they wont face Timur in battle. Somehow they dont have to try to stop his invading force? Is loosing Antolia to him without a serious fight somehow acceptable?
Timur did attack the Ottomans however it was preceded by Timur and the Ottoman Sultan Bayazit insulting each other through letters and the fact that both had pretensions of being protectors of Islam and leaders of the Islamic Turco-Mongol lands. Without a decisive victory in against crusaders gaining Ottomans money and also stopping any danger of Crusades for a longer time Bayazit would be less confident/arrogant and not antagonize Timur enough that he decides to invade.
 
Timur did attack the Ottomans however it was preceded by Timur and the Ottoman Sultan Bayazit insulting each other through letters and the fact that both had pretensions of being protectors of Islam and leaders of the Islamic Turco-Mongol lands. Without a decisive victory in against crusaders gaining Ottomans money and also stopping any danger of Crusades for a longer time Bayazit would be less confident/arrogant and not antagonize Timur enough that he decides to invade.
Maybe. However looking at Timur's career he was near constantly invading someone with this or that pretext. And I doubt that Bayazit would be so much more accomodating to Timur as to deter an attack. Defeating the crusaders even if not decisivly is still a huge burst of prestige. Not to mention if he takes Constantinople - after that he would have much more reason to be even more arrogant than OTL.
 
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Timur did attack the Ottomans however it was preceded by Timur and the Ottoman Sultan Bayazit insulting each other through letters and the fact that both had pretensions of being protectors of Islam and leaders of the Islamic Turco-Mongol lands. Without a decisive victory in against crusaders gaining Ottomans money and also stopping any danger of Crusades for a longer time Bayazit would be less confident/arrogant and not antagonize Timur enough that he decides to invade.
Timur will find another reason to attack.
 
He has to act, otherwise Timur can just devastate the whole of Anatolia and Bayezid may find himself on the wrong end of a silken rope.
Timur will likely go to Izmir where the Citadel was occupied by the Crusaders. Bayezid is fine with that. And yeah, he has to act. But whether he will... he is safe in the Balkans. Worst case scenario for Bayezid is Timur not razing Anatolia but reestablish the Turkoman Beyliks, which was his primary goal. Razing Anatolia means Timur loses his Anatolian allies which were crucial to his victory in OTL.
 
Timur will likely go to Izmir where the Citadel was occupied by the Crusaders. Bayezid is fine with that. And yeah, he has to act. But whether he will... he is safe in the Balkans. Worst case scenario for Bayezid is Timur not razing Anatolia but reestablish the Turkoman Beyliks, which was his primary goal. Razing Anatolia means Timur loses his Anatolian allies which were crucial to his victory in OTL.
If Timur sets up Anatolian client states, the very heartland of the Ottomans is threatened. He absolutely cannot allow that, especially since we was just weakened in the Balkans. And if he meets Timur in the field, it might go the same way as OTL, maybe even worse.
 
If Timur sets up Anatolian client states, the very heartland of the Ottomans is threatened. He absolutely cannot allow that, especially since we was just weakened in the Balkans. And if he meets Timur in the field, it might go the same way as OTL, maybe even worse.
Timur did not stay years in Anatolia. At best he sets up states which still existed in the 1380s, not entire Anatolia. Timur captured Bayezid in OTL so the idea it will end up worse without facing him is silly. Timur DID set up new client states after the Ottoman defeat. The Ottomans WERE in way worse situation in OTL with 11 years of civil war between 4+1 sons.

It won't be worse not to face Timur other than losing prestige in the eyes of the Turkmens who will try to ask Timurid help because of it (which won't come as Timur dies in Central Asia).
 
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