WI No Qing Dynasty

The Ming dynasty is replaced by another ethnic Han dynasty. The obvious consequence is that China is much smaller than in OTL. Russia takes Xinjiang, parts of Gansu and Qinghai, Outer and Inner Mongolia, and Manchuria. The British control, but don't annex Tibet. Is Russia much stronger than in OTL? Does it have a larger presence in the Far East? Is China more subject to Russian influence?
 
The Ming dynasty is replaced by another ethnic Han dynasty.
I'd take a possible POD is that Li Zicheng's forces win at Shanhaiguan (maybe he doesn't alienate Wu Sangui, allowing them to join forces against the Manchu), enabling the Shun Dynasty to consolidate it's rule over China and defeat the "Southern Ming" and the Daxi (Zhang Xianzhong's (insane) regime in Sichuan)?
 
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The Ming dynasty is replaced by another ethnic Han dynasty. The obvious consequence is that China is much smaller than in OTL. Russia takes Xinjiang, parts of Gansu and Qinghai, Outer and Inner Mongolia, and Manchuria. The British control, but don't annex Tibet. Is Russia much stronger than in OTL? Does it have a larger presence in the Far East? Is China more subject to Russian influence?
You seem to take all these for granted, while a different Han China might as well be more powerful than the Qing and gobble up the Jurchens.
 
You seem to take all these for granted, while a different Han China might as well be more powerful than the Qing and gobble up the Jurchens.
Historically, the Chinese empires didn't really bother expanding into Manchuria. The south had much nicer land for settling and holding Manchuria was a bit difficult, with its proximity to the steppe in mind. The Manchu had the advantage of having both Manchuria and Mongolia already under their rule to begin with. Conquering it isn't out of the question for the Chinese (so long as there's no Nurhaci figure) but the cost vs the benefits don't really put conquest in a positive balance (gunpowder making steppe nomads more manageable) until a while later, at which point the Russians are starting to get a bit close for comfort.

Not guaranteed, of course, but the possibility exists.
why would Britain even bother with Tibet?
Great Game, India, worries about Russia, stuff that might get butterflied away with a POD pre-1700s. If the Great Game does happen without the Qing, it'd be a possibility.
 
Historically, the Chinese empires didn't really bother expanding into Manchuria. The south had much nicer land for settling and holding Manchuria was a bit difficult, with its proximity to the steppe in mind. The Manchu had the advantage of having both Manchuria and Mongolia already under their rule to begin with. Conquering it isn't out of the question for the Chinese (so long as there's no Nurhaci figure) but the cost vs the benefits don't really put conquest in a positive balance (gunpowder making steppe nomads more manageable) until a while later, at which point the Russians are starting to get a bit close for comfort.
A strong Jurchen state next door is not at all beneficial to China. If the new Han state can keep modernizing with gunpowder weapons, they have the means to put them down for good.
 
How does Russia get parts of China and why would Britain even bother with Tibet?

Russia was already in the Far East north of Manchuria in the 1600s. Without the Qing they can start taking parts of Manchuria from then, but most Russia expansion into OTL China would likely come when Russia was expanding into Central Asia in the 19th century. Unless, of course, they pushed south earlier to access Chinese markets or as part of an alliance with China. I should add that a similar alliance worked out horribly for the Northern Song dynasty. In the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century Britain was very concerned that Russia could send an army through the Khyber pass and take India. Britain fought a cold war against Russia to slow its expansion to prevent this. Britain actually intervened in Tibet in 1904/05.

I'd take a possible POD is that Li Zicheng's forces win at Shanhaiguan (maybe he doesn't alienate Wu Sangui, allowing them to join forces against the Manchu), enabling the Shun Dynasty to consolidate it's rule over China and defeat the "Southern Ming" and the Daxi (Zhang Xianzhong's (insane) regime in Sichuan)?

That would be the most straightforward was to do it. Other possibilities would be no Nurhaci or a more reasonable leader overthrows the Ming.

You seem to take all these for granted, while a different Han China might as well be more powerful than the Qing and gobble up the Jurchens.

The Han and Tang dynasties were able to hold barbarian territory in Xinjiang and exert a kind of hegemony over the steppe, but since then the Northern barbarians had been able to maintain their independence or dominate China. By the time technology swung back in China's favor, Russia would have already taken those territories.
 
Russia would have already taken them in the 1700s? The Russians didn't take Bukhara until well into the 19th century...
 
Aww... replacing the Ming immediately with just another Han dynasty isn't fun. There should be an extended warlord period in which Spain or France tries to quietly convert southern China to Christianity and backs Western-sympathetic warlords as semi-client states! :p
 
Aww... replacing the Ming immediately with just another Han dynasty isn't fun. There should be an extended warlord period in which Spain or France tries to quietly convert southern China to Christianity and backs Western-sympathetic warlords as semi-client states! :p

There were major Christian communities there OTL, which foundered when the wise Europeans said "you can't honor your ancestors."
 
So, what would the internal development of a lasting Shun China be as it's the most likely way one could avert a Qing takeover of China without a lasting Ming?
 
Before the rise of Song Dynasty whose capital had been situated in Kaifeng, four states -- (Later) Shu, (Later) Zhou, (Southern) Tang, Khitai were present before the rise of the Mongols. In this ATL, history would be repeated that Daxi regime, Dashun regime, (Southern) Ming, Qing would represent (Later) Shu, (Later) Zhou, (Southern) Tang, Khitai respectively, until the arrival of Mongols, that would be represented by the Russians.

*erratum, the rise, not fall. I am sorry for this typo.
 
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Russia would have already taken them in the 1700s? The Russians didn't take Bukhara until well into the 19th century...

Judging from Russia's expansion into Kazakhstan, only the low hanging fruit would be taken in the 1700s. This would probably mean some of Manchuria and Outer Mongolia. The bulk of the conquests would occur in the second half of the 19th century. I think we could reasonably expect Russia to annex Mukden and Port Arthur and if they were lucky to capture Beijing and do what they could with that. I'm not sure the Western Powers would allow Russia to turn China into a puppet state.

Before the fall of Song Dynasty whose capital had been situated in Kaifeng, four states -- (Later) Shu, (Later) Zhou, (Southern) Tang, Khitai were present before the rise of the Mongols. In this ATL, history would be repeated that Daxi regime, Dashun regime, (Southern) Ming, Qing would represent (Later) Shu, (Later) Zhou, (Southern) Tang, Khitai respectively, until the arrival of Mongols, that would be represented by the Russians.

This isn't correct. Those states date before the rise of the Song dynasty. Before the fall of Kaifeng, Northern Song shared China with the Khitan-Liao and the Xixia. Then, the Jurchen Jin dynasty rose from Manchuria and destroyed both the Liao and Northern Song.
 
Why must the Russian project influence in the 1700s? When Qing could represent the combination of Khitai and Jurchen -- a span of middle 10th century to middle 13th century, Qing dynasty lasted in the OTL from early 17th century to early 20th century. The span of time was similar. So when the Mongols destroyed Jurchen in the OTL, it would be the Russians defeated the Qing in this ATL.

In OTL, Russia influenced the land masses what are now known as Xinzhang, Mongolia and Russian Far East.

Before the rise of Song Dynasty whose capital had been situated in Kaifeng, four states -- (Later) Shu, (Later) Zhou, (Southern) Tang, Khitai were present before the rise of the Mongols. In this ATL, history would be repeated that Daxi regime, Dashun regime, (Southern) Ming, Qing would represent (Later) Shu, (Later) Zhou, (Southern) Tang, Khitai respectively, until the arrival of Mongols, that would be represented by the Russians.

Or if the readers prefer another analogy, Dali, Jurchen, Xixia, Southern Song, Kara-Khitai in the OTL would correspond in this ATL to Daxi, Qing, Dashun, Southern Ming, Mongols. Mongols in the 13th century in the OTL would corresponds to the Russian in middle 19th century in the OTL and this ATL.

When readers want to go into details, I am stepping away from this post.
 
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