WI - No Potato outside of the Andes

[Tanc49]

Hi all,

I'm currently reading 1493 by Charles C. Mann, which is an absolutely passionnating book (had loved 1491 too).

It says that potato was a major factor in the population explosion of Europe and China, and that without the potato, the situation would have deteriorated in Europe due to reaching its maximum carrying capacity.

It also points out that the population explosion was a major destabilising factor in China, due to the tax system not evolving.

So here's my question: what if the potato had never made it out of the Andes?

Say it rots too fast to travel far, or that the blight travels with it, hindering it becoming a major crop.

What then?


sub-question, what do you guys think of the book 1493? Seems well documented, is it valid?

 

[wtw]

Hi all,

I'm currently reading 1493 by Charles C. Mann, which is an absolutely passionnating book (had loved 1491 too).

It says that potato was a major factor in the population explosion of Europe and China, and that without the potato, the situation would have deteriorated in Europe due to reaching its maximum carrying capacity.

It also points out that the population explosion was a major destabilising factor in China, due to the tax system not evolving.

So here's my question: what if the potato had never made it out of the Andes?

Say it rots too fast to travel far, or that the blight travels with it, hindering it becoming a major crop.

What then?


sub-question, what do you guys think of the book 1493? Seems well documented, is it valid?

It was important for areas where wheat or grain crops did very poor, it allowed peasants to survive when wars destroyed the wheat fields. I have to question how much an impact it had on Asia as China is not know, in fact much of Asia is not known for potatoes. Even Europe I doubt that in the long term it would not be that much of an issue.

 

[Tanc49]

It was important for areas where wheat or grain crops did very poor, it allowed peasants to survive when wars destroyed the wheat fields. I have to question how much an impact it had on Asia as China is not know, in fact much of Asia is not known for potatoes. Even Europe I doubt that in the long term it would not be that much of an issue.

Well apparently it's linked to a massive population boom in all areas that are not rice deltas

 

[Richard V]

Well apparently it's linked to a massive population boom in all areas that are not rice deltas

That's the sweet potato, a totally different plant family, native to a different part of the Americas.

 

[Dave Howery]

the role of the potato is discussed in the second 'What If' book as well, and that author seems to think the main affect of it (at first) was making war less hellish for the civilian population.. potatoes weren't generally plundered by the armies moving around (who seemed to be superb at gathering up every bit of grain and meat), so the peasants had something to eat when the fighting moved away.

 

[Richard V]

the role of the potato is discussed in the second 'What If' book as well, and that author seems to think the main affect of it (at first) was making war less hellish for the civilian population.. potatoes weren't generally plundered by the armies moving around (who seemed to be superb at gathering up every bit of grain and meat), so the peasants had something to eat when the fighting moved away.

The potato is responsible for German population boom and Frederick the Great is often credited with popularizing it in Prussia. Even today people leave potatoes on his grave at Sanssouci Palace.

 

[General Tirpitz]

Turnips would be probably more important than they are today. They used to be one of the main crops at least in Nordic countries before potatoes became common.

 

[riggerrob]

Both "1491" and "1493" are fascinating books and they parallel everything else I have read on the topic of Native American society around the time Europeans arrived. Two other good books are "Collapse" and "Guns, Germs and Steel" written by Professor Jared Diamond.
Another fascinating book is "Made in America" about crops selectively bred by native Americans: potatoes, corn, tobacco, sweet peppers, etc.

Potatoes were most valuable for European peasants. Potatoes became popular in Ireland because they could produce the maximum calories per acre. The Great Irish Potatoe Famine hit in 1848 after three successive cool, wet summers hampered harvests and depleted grain reserves across Europe. Irish (mostly Catholic) peasants died by the thousands. Hundreds of thousands more emigrated to England and North American. The Famine also forced poor Irishman to become nomadic. Itinerant Irishmen became the "Pikies" of the modern UK.
Irish Protestant landlords were happy to see unprofitable peasant farmers leave.

So without potatoes, Ireland would not have devolved to mono-cultural agriculture. Irish population would have smaller, with fewer emigrating to North America. Also far fewer Irishmen would have forceably deported to Van Demon's Land (Australia) as petty criminals.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Turnips would be probably more important than they are today. They used to be one of the main crops at least in Nordic countries before potatoes became common.

But turnips can't fill the role potatoes did OTL. Turnips would definitely be more important, but they can't fulfill the niche potatoes did, and thus you can subtract the value of potatoes from the economy and population growth. For instance, the Russians had come up with many recipes for turnips during the 16th/17th century, but wouldn't use potatoes until the 19th century, where it was derided as the "devil's apple" by some.

It also seems telling that many turnip recipes nowadays demand turnips be mixed with mashed potatoes.

 

[Tanc49]

But turnips can't fill the role potatoes did OTL. Turnips would definitely be more important, but they can't fulfill the niche potatoes did, and thus you can subtract the value of potatoes from the economy and population growth. For instance, the Russians had come up with many recipes for turnips during the 16th/17th century, but wouldn't use potatoes until the 19th century, where it was derided as the "devil's apple" by some.

It also seems telling that many turnip recipes nowadays demand turnips be mixed with mashed potatoes.

Yeah, turnip on its own isn't great texture wise, at least not as easily as potatoes.

Does turnip have the same nutritional value? I was reading that you could live well on just potatoes and milk as it brings you all you need

 

[Jared]

Does turnip have the same nutritional value? I was reading that you could live well on just potatoes and milk as it brings you all you need

No, turnips have worse nutritional value than potatoes. Turnips give somewhere around a third of the same amount of calories per unit of weight. Most of this is carbohydrates, with very little fat or protein. (Turnips are 1% protein, potatoes are about 2%). Neither are particularly good sources of micronutrients, except for Vitamin C, and in some potato varieties, Vitamin B6.

In the "potatoes and milk" diet, the potatoes basically supply the energy and the milk supplies all of the other required nutrients.

Overall, though, the crucial difference is that potatoes yield much better per acre than turnips, which is why they permitted such a population boom. Potatoes are pretty much the highest-yielding vegetable in terms of calories, except in some very specialised circumstances (such as very intensively-irrigated sweet potato systems or areas which yield several rice harvests per year).

 

[Tanc49]

Anybody has more thoughts?

 

[BellaGerant]

It was important for areas where wheat or grain crops did very poor, it allowed peasants to survive when wars destroyed the wheat fields. I have to question how much an impact it had on Asia as China is not know, in fact much of Asia is not known for potatoes. Even Europe I doubt that in the long term it would not be that much of an issue.

China produces 22% of all potatoes in the world, amusingly, as a side note.

But not having new world crops in general is going to stunt the Chinese population growth a bit, since famines hit harder when they do. No 4x pop growth like during the Qing. Which has quite sizeable impacts, I would imagine, for the East at least.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

It says that potato was a major factor in the population explosion of Europe and China, and that without the potato, the situation would have deteriorated in Europe due to reaching its maximum carrying capacity.

Probably in that case you'd see more emigration to the New World. What the effects of that might be I'm not sure, although it might make, e.g., New France better able to defend itself if more settlers have moved there.

 

[Tanc49]

Probably in that case you'd see more emigration to the New World. What the effects of that might be I'm not sure, although it might make, e.g., New France better able to defend itself if more settlers have moved there.

But would we see the type of population explosion that led to mass emigration?

 

[Richard V]

China produces 22% of all potatoes in the world, amusingly, as a side note.

But not having new world crops in general is going to stunt the Chinese population growth a bit, since famines hit harder when they do. No 4x pop growth like during the Qing. Which has quite sizeable impacts, I would imagine, for the East at least.

That's the current production, but I don't know if Solanum tuberosum was a significant crop during the Qing dynasty. I would like to see some sources on this, as everything I've seen is about the impact of the sweet potato or Ipomoea batatas on China, of which it is pretty much the main beneficiary. China produces 80% of the world's sweet potato with production about the same as the unrelated potato.

In any case, absent the potato France may come to dominate Europe as southern Europe benefits disporportionally from corn compared to Britain and Germany. For all the importance of the potato the world grows much more corn, and its importance would be all the more without the potato.

 

[Thesaurus Rex]

Jared Diamond

Careful, partner. That name ain't used lightly 'round these parts.

No, turnips have worse nutritional value than potatoes. Turnips give somewhere around a third of the same amount of calories per unit of weight. Most of this is carbohydrates, with very little fat or protein. (Turnips are 1% protein, potatoes are about 2%). Neither are particularly good sources of micronutrients, except for Vitamin C, and in some potato varieties, Vitamin B6.

In the "potatoes and milk" diet, the potatoes basically supply the energy and the milk supplies all of the other required nutrients.

Overall, though, the crucial difference is that potatoes yield much better per acre than turnips, which is why they permitted such a population boom. Potatoes are pretty much the highest-yielding vegetable in terms of calories, except in some very specialised circumstances (such as very intensively-irrigated sweet potato systems or areas which yield several rice harvests per year).

That's the root, but what about the leaves? I thought turnip greens had pretty much everything.

 

[Jared]

That's the root, but what about the leaves? I thought turnip greens had pretty much everything.

Turnip greens are decent at supplying some further micronutrients (e.g. Vitamin A, K, B9), but not all (e.g. most other B vitamins, and their calcium and iron is both low and not very bioavailable). They are also low in the other key macronutrients (fat, protein). Worse, though, like most leafy green vegetables, turnip greens don't store very well, so they're not a year-round solution. Turnip greens are certainly a useful bonus from growing turnips, but not a complete diet.

 

[Revachah]

Well to butterfly away potato in Europe you'd have to butterfly away potato region of diversification in Chile specifically chiloe which were the basis of day length neutral tuberization.

That going to be hard-pressed given the sheer diversity of potato species in chiloe and Chile as a whole that hybridized to make these day length neutral variants.

No matter what it'll eventually come about, mashua has Ken Aslet after all and that formed from a botanical garden specimen in England that produced a day length neutral mutant (which despite tasting too strongly to be a staple or even a garden crop provides many, many calories per sq meter).

Ireland's issue was a result of a specific inbred line of chiloe derived potatoes called collectively "lumpers" that were blight suspectable. Not all potatoes were though, some have always been blight resistant, they just weren't day length neutral.
_____
Given the hardiness zones of Ireland reaching 9b/10a any potato species or variant will grow as a decent and worthwhile garden crop that begins tuberization around the time of the fall equinox. It could be a prized supplement for winter food stores.

Where I live I can grow several kinds of day length sensitive andean crops: oca, ulluco, mashua without much worry given similar hardeness zones to Ireland.

Regardless the population booms seen elsewhere in the old world through new world crops would be much lower in Europe and China. It'd be more corn centered which has its pros and cons.

Sweet potato would probably be bred to be successively cool tolerant mirroring Papuan varieties.