WI No Pope Julius II in 1503?

In 1503 wealthy and influential Cardinal D'Amboise aspired to become Pope following the death of Alexander VI. So he placed French troops around Rome and in the city gates hoping to intimidate the Conclave to vote for him. However several Cardinals managed to talk him out of it and Cardinal D'Amboise ordered the French troops to leave Rome relying only to his personal influence upon the Cardinals. However this proved to be a mistake as the Cardinals free from the fear of the French troops elected Cardinal Piccolomini as Pope Pius III and after his untimely death a month later they elected Cardinal Della Rovere as Pope Julius II.

WI Cardinal D'Amboise stuck to his guns and kept the French troops around Rome thus forcing the Conclave to vote for him? Historically Cardinal D'Amboise died in 1510 so assuming that he dies as per OTL the Papacy of Julius II is eliminated. So how is History affected by that?
 
Julius isn't eliminated, he's just not the only Pope elected that year. The moment the French army disappeared Naplesward, the Italian cardinals would get together again without inviting any of the French or Spanish ones and "elect" della Rovere Pope. Since the city of Rome would emphatically prefer della Rovere to d'Amboise, I expect d'Amboise is forced to flee to Avignon, but to persons with a legalistic turn of mind, he's still the true Pope and della Rovere is an antipope. So, schism again.

Maximilian's response will be interesting and complicated; he loathes the French, but most of the Empire would strongly prefer d'Amboise to della Rovere. I suspect large parts of the HRE use the schism as an excuse to withhold tithes from either of them. And if Max gets one of the Popes to say he doesn't need a papal coronation to be Emperor, as he got from Julius II OTL, his detractors will be using the schism for a LONG time to say that he and his son aren't legitimately Emperor...
 
Julius isn't eliminated, he's just not the only Pope elected that year. The moment the French army disappeared Naplesward, the Italian cardinals would get together again without inviting any of the French or Spanish ones and "elect" della Rovere Pope. Since the city of Rome would emphatically prefer della Rovere to d'Amboise, I expect d'Amboise is forced to flee to Avignon, but to persons with a legalistic turn of mind, he's still the true Pope and della Rovere is an antipope. So, schism again.

Maximilian's response will be interesting and complicated; he loathes the French, but most of the Empire would strongly prefer d'Amboise to della Rovere. I suspect large parts of the HRE use the schism as an excuse to withhold tithes from either of them. And if Max gets one of the Popes to say he doesn't need a papal coronation to be Emperor, as he got from Julius II OTL, his detractors will be using the schism for a LONG time to say that he and his son aren't legitimately Emperor...

A schism, really? I think that's way to extreme, especially for the time. Perhaps d'Amboise might suffer a fall from his horse or fall ill and die but I doubt the cardinals would rick another great schism. Also, you seem to forget Franc controled both Naples and Milan at the time. So there's nothing stopping them from sending troops in to resolve the "Schism".

Personally wonder how d'Amboise's papacy would look like. Would be a mere puppet to the French? Would he attempt to reform the Church or merely pay lip service to the idea? Would having a French Pope strengthen French power in Italy?
 
If they can catch and kill della Rovere, sure, problem solved quickly. I wouldn't count on that when he has the support of Rome and Venice though. He's a slippery bastard, and the Roman mob is one of the hardest to subdue. Your point about d'Amboise being murdered is also fair, but I think there was a real desire, even among the degenerate cardinals, to try and turn over a new leaf after Alexander VI. Not killing the Pope you don't like could go a ways towards restoring respect to the Curia.

I wouldn't characterize d'Amboise as a puppet of the French. Like his predecessors, he'd be handing out choice offices to his family, but his relationship with Louis XII was mutually respectful (both pious men elevated by chance far beyond what they might reasonably have expected). He'd try to reform the church, but he wouldn't get far - in terms of manipulative ability, there's half a dozen Italian cardinals who massively outclass him IMHO.

Anyway, I see it as a "hearts and minds" problem. All of Italy would reject d'Amboise and embrace della Rovere. d'Amboise cannot be an effective Pope from Rome, and he probably can't be effectively Pope of more than France from Avignon. Alexander VI had done his part to stack the College of Cardinals with rotters.
 
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