WI: No Polish Uprisings until Crimean War

How would Russia and Kingdom of Poland look like if there were no uprisings until big war involving Prussia, Russia and Austria? How would Nicholas I reforms look like in Poland and Russia. What about intervention in Belgium? Would Crimean War happen and if, could Poland suceed in breaking out from Russia?
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
1 - Nicholas would continue to break the Constitution, bringing Poland more in line with Russia. However, with no November Uprising, the Congress Kingdom thrives. Furthermore, no rebellion probably butterflies away Constantine's death, so he continues to supervise the Western Gubernia's with their Polish language schools.
2 - there would be no "Nicholas' reforms". Reforms give you rebellions - see Decembrists.
3 - no idea how could the situation in Nederlands evolve. If Polish troops are deemed untrustworthy, Russians could arrive in the spring. However, Prussia would have no excuse apart from debt not to intervene.
4 - Crimean War on schedule
5 - No, Poland does not gain independence. This is possible only if Austria and Prussia both move against Russia. And neither has a reason to do so. The Polish Question = Too Big Can Of Worms. Austria - blocking Russia in the Balkans is one thing, inciting a rebellion in Poland - another.
Not having the November Uprising would be WONDERFUL! It avoids the destruction of the fighting and dismantling of Polish state apparatus. Come Alexander II and the "Post-Crimean Thaw" Poland would regain an elected Sejm and finally emancipate the peasants (they were free but landless, compelled to provide unpaid work in return for not being kicked off the land).
 
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Prussia would join Crimean War against Russia to destroy Congress Kingdom. Prussia and Poland can't coexist.

The Congress Poland firmly under Russian control was not a problem for Prussia. The Kingdom of Poland had no its own foreign policy, its army was small and no threat at all. IIRC at the time Prussia was beginning to seriously compete with Austria for unification of German states and just a few years earlier Prussia was forced to accept the Punctation of Olmütz and recognize (temporarily) superiority of Austria. Russia did support Austria at Olmütz, after Austria switched sides during the Crimean War and forced Russians to abandon their progresses in Balkans, Russian-Austrian alliance was over, which made Austria easier target for Prussia. Of course assuming that everything went the same way as IOTL.
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
1 - Prussia joining the Crimean War against Russia? What for?
2 - landing in Poland? The Churchill school of lala-land operations ...
3 - no November Uprising = no Hotel Lambert
4 - oh yes, the allies will try to stir shit up in Poland. And there will be glassy eyed idiots who would lap up all empty promises. And will gladly sacrifice themselves (Darwin Prize!) and that of others (hiss! boo!) in an uprising. But hopefully cool heads will prevail.
 
1. I mean't as intervention in Poland like Svetonius21 said.
2. Maybe that wasn't very good idea but still Polish forces could act as diversive forces. There weren't the best forces in Poland during the war. Allies could land somewhere in Russia (Petersburg?) so to defend it forces from Kingdom would have been redirected and that would give some chances. Rememeber that the generals that were fighting in November Uprising could fight in this one because they dont happen.
 
The Congress Poland firmly under Russian control was not a problem for Prussia. The Kingdom of Poland had no its own foreign policy, its army was small and no threat at all. IIRC at the time Prussia was beginning to seriously compete with Austria for unification of German states and just a few years earlier Prussia was forced to accept the Punctation of Olmütz and recognize (temporarily) superiority of Austria. Russia did support Austria at Olmütz, after Austria switched sides during the Crimean War and forced Russians to abandon their progresses in Balkans, Russian-Austrian alliance was over, which made Austria easier target for Prussia. Of course assuming that everything went the same way as IOTL.
Congress Poland that is on good terms with Russia is mortal danger for Prussia. Poles would try hard to spoil tsar's relations with Prussia. Without common fear of Polish irredentism Russo-Prussian relations would be far worse than OTL (for example Alvensleben Convention-Russian relations with France were improving after Crimean War until Bismarck get gift from heaven-January Uprising, otherwise Russians would not allow Prussians to unite Germany, Prussians would need to wait untill Russian attention is distracted, say by Ottomans, to go to war against France). Look what happened when Polish uprisings stopped.
 
Congress Poland that is on good terms with Russia is mortal danger for Prussia. Poles would try hard to spoil tsar's relations with Prussia. Without common fear of Polish irredentism Russo-Prussian relations would be far worse than OTL (for example Alvensleben Convention-Russian relations with France were improving after Crimean War until Bismarck get gift from heaven-January Uprising, otherwise Russians would not allow Prussians to unite Germany, Prussians would need to wait untill Russian attention is distracted, say by Ottomans, to go to war against France). Look what happened when Polish uprisings stopped.
Russia and Prussia had had decent relations since the defeat of Napoleon and have no conflicting interests, Russia fought against Germany in ww1 because when forced to choose the Germans chose the Austrians, it had nothing to do with less polish uprisings.
The polish uprisings may have brought them closer together but at the end of the day they have no quarrel with eachother either.
Poland is not a mortal danger to Prussia, Prussia was massively more populous and industrialized, Poland would be a thorn I their side but they would utterly steamroll them if that' what it came too.
Prussia would join Crimean War against Russia to destroy Congress Kingdom. Prussia and Poland can't coexist.
Incorrect they can coexist fine as long as Poland relinquishes any ridiculous ambitions of being a great power and accepts it's position in central Europe as that of a weaker power that has to make sure it doesn't piss off it's much bigger and massively more powerful neighbours and like wise Prussia and Russia need only be not hostile just on principle to an independent Poland.
Basically as long as everyone plays nice and keeps their ambitions low they could get along fine.
 
The very fact that Russo-German war was possible in 1914 was only possible due to Poland being calm from two generations. If Piłsudski's lunacy of uprising in 1905 came to existence Germans and Russians would crush it together and Russians would not seek for alliance with France. Disloyal Poland would make any war in the west pointless.
Independent Poland alone was not danger to Prussia, Poland conflicted with Russia even less. But Poland allied with Russia is extremaly dangerous. Prussia was traditional British ally against France, Britain was traditional Russia's rival. Without fear of Polish uprising cementing Russo-Prussian alliance conflict between the two would happen sooner of later due to International alliances like in 1914. And what could happen with Prussia in such case? Year 1945 gives the answer.
 
The very fact that Russo-German war was possible in 1914 was only possible due to Poland being calm from two generations. If Piłsudski's lunacy of uprising in 1905 came to existence Germans and Russians would crush it together and Russians would not seek for alliance with France. Disloyal Poland would make any war in the west pointless.
Independent Poland alone was not danger to Prussia, Poland conflicted with Russia even less. But Poland allied with Russia is extremaly dangerous. Prussia was traditional British ally against France, Britain was traditional Russia's rival. Without fear of Polish uprising cementing Russo-Prussian alliance conflict between the two would happen sooner of later due to International alliances like in 1914. And what could happen with Prussia in such case? Year 1945 gives the answer.
1945 gives the answer? That answer would be without land lease and ridiculous German war goals the Russians get hammered? Good to know. O would have thought since it is an entirely different scenario it would be entirely different but silly me I guess.
 
Giving German lands to Poland was idea floating in Russia since Seven Years War. Better crush potential danger using opportunity than check if Russians are really capable of doing it. Before German unification Prussia was not first European power.
 
Prussians already know that Poles, despite being overally weaker, could use opportunity when Prussia is in trouble (they did it in 1807). I don't think Poles in Congress Poland would stay calm during 1848 uprising in Posen. Especially if Constantine is still alive. In long run either there is war with Prussia or Poles would rebel against tsar sooner or later, likely sooner.
 
You mean apart from the Napoleonic Wars, the Crimean War, the Seven Weeks' War and the Franco-Prussian War.

Not to mention the fact that the Fashoda Crisis almost erupted into war.
I was thinking apart from the Napoleonic wars because that what applies here and yeah just the 2, unless you count the ottomans as a European great power and some do.
 
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