WI: No Polish-Lithuanian union?

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
Sea access through Duchy of Słupsk is irrelevant as there is no connection by river to the rest of the monarchy. The only ports that mattered were Gdańsk and Elbląg - both at mouth of Vistula, and Szczecin - mouth of Oder.

But I agree that Casimir of Słupsk is an AU interesting option. Had he lived to 1382 - Louis' death - I imagine him being a strong candidate against Hedvig.
 
Sea access through Duchy of Słupsk is irrelevant as there is no connection by river to the rest of the monarchy. The only ports that mattered were Gdańsk and Elbląg - both at mouth of Vistula, and Szczecin - mouth of Oder.

But I agree that Casimir of Słupsk is an AU interesting option. Had he lived to 1382 - Louis' death - I imagine him being a strong candidate against Hedvig.
His ATL son may well have married Hedwig ITTL....
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
His ATL son may well have married Hedwig ITTL....
True. His 2nd wife had children with her hubby no.2, so she was not barren. Also Margaret gave him an "in" with the Mazovian Piasts.
Casimir of Słupsk held substantial lands in central and northern Poland, mind you.
Had he had a son c.1378 then the boy would had been 5 years Hedwig's junior - not a problem.
In 1382 he also could had raised a stink over the lands that grandpa had left him and were denied him in 1370 - a major swath of central Poland - Duchies of Sieradz and Łęczyca, and in the north - Duchy of Inowrocław and district of Wałcz.
 
He had no children historically, and how does he overcome the obstacle that is Louis of Hungary?
Louis of Hungary was childless untill 1370, so Casimir the Great hoped, that his nephew would die childless leaving Polish throne to Casimir of Słupsk. In 1370 Louis was 45 yo, married from 17 years to Elizabeth of Bosnia and still had no kids, so it seemed likely.
 
True. His 2nd wife had children with her hubby no.2, so she was not barren. Also Margaret gave him an "in" with the Mazovian Piasts.
Casimir of Słupsk held substantial lands in central and northern Poland, mind you.
Had he had a son c.1378 then the boy would had been 5 years Hedwig's junior - not a problem.
In 1382 he also could had raised a stink over the lands that grandpa had left him and were denied him in 1370 - a major swath of central Poland - Duchies of Sieradz and Łęczyca, and in the north - Duchy of Inowrocław and district of Wałcz.
The first wife represents the more interesting marriage politically, but do we know if he could even father children?
 

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
We do not know - his first Lithuanian wife died when he was ... seventeen ... she eighteen ... they were married when nine and ten, respectively ...

His eight-nine year long marriage to Margaret of Mazovia was childless, though.
So, maybe just unlucky?
 
We do not know - his first Lithuanian wife died when he was ... seventeen ... she eighteen ... they were married when nine and ten, respectively ...

His eight-nine year long marriage to Margaret of Mazovia was childless, though.
So, maybe just unlucky?
I tend to assume that if a historical monarch did not have children over successive marriages, he was not going to, especially if his last wife later has children.
 
In my scenario about Poland reunited by Przemysł II:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wenceslaus-ii-of-bohemia-dies-in-1295.446966/
Poland is under different Piast branch and had not lost Pomerelia. As result Teutonic Order state is smaller and weaker. Not as dangerous to Lithuania as IOTL. OTOH Poland ITTL had no conflict with the Order and the two have common enemy-Lithuanians. But unlike TO Poles are more interested in conquering Ruthenian lands, not Lithuania proper or Samogitia. So Lithuanians are not pressed as much like IOTL to baptize, may remain pagan much longer than IOTL.
 
It is very much possible, though, considering that unlike Polonization, Ruthenization was a bottom-up process and did not give any immediate advantages (in OTL, Polish language and culture were seen as "Western" and thus automatically more "civilized" than Lithuanian, which would not be the case with Ruthenian), it would be a slow process.

I do admit that I kind of cheated in TSK by generating strife between the Lithuanians, Ruthenians and Russians, disincentivizing assimilation in exchange for continuous lack of stability, which is why in TSK, Lithuanian language and culture remains, endures and even expands to other Baltic territory. In an OTL-like situation of peaceful coexistence, this would not be the case.
Let's say that an east-focused Lithuania conquers and unites the Russian principalities, and without generated strife and with many more East Slavic lands, steadily Ruthenizes from the lands it rules. Perhaps with the new center of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania becoming Kiev, Smolensk, or Minsk.

If this Slavicized Lithuania founded "Russia" as a Lithuanian and Ruthenian-dominated instead of a Muscovite-dominated state, how would it look like?

What could we predict in terms of economics, social structure, and urban centers? Perhaps it would look like a greatly enlarged Cossack Hetmanate?

In my scenario about Poland reunited by Przemysł II:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wenceslaus-ii-of-bohemia-dies-in-1295.446966/
Poland is under different Piast branch and had not lost Pomerelia. As result Teutonic Order state is smaller and weaker. Not as dangerous to Lithuania as IOTL. OTOH Poland ITTL had no conflict with the Order and the two have common enemy-Lithuanians. But unlike TO Poles are more interested in conquering Ruthenian lands, not Lithuania proper or Samogitia. So Lithuanians are not pressed as much like IOTL to baptize, may remain pagan much longer than IOTL.
That sounds interesting. Maybe pagan remnants could survive in parts of Lithuania up to the Reformation.
 
That sounds interesting. Maybe pagan remnants could survive in parts of Lithuania up to the Reformation
That's OTL. Large portions of the Lithuanian countryside remained pagan until the Counter-Reformation.

Hell, Lithuanian paganism even had myths about magical pistols gifted by the god Perkūnas, that's how long it managed to endure.

Let's say that an east-focused Lithuania conquers and unites the Russian principalities, and without generated strife and with many more East Slavic lands, steadily Ruthenizes from the lands it rules. Perhaps with the new center of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania becoming Kiev, Smolensk, or Minsk.

If this Slavicized Lithuania founded "Russia" as a Lithuanian and Ruthenian-dominated instead of a Muscovite-dominated state, how would it look like?

What could we predict in terms of economics, social structure, and urban centers? Perhaps it would look like a greatly enlarged Cossack Hetmanate?
Personally, I doubt that even with all of Rus' under Lithuanian control and Lithuanian nobility Ruthenizing, the capital of the state would stray very far from Vilnius. For the Grand Dukes of Lithuania, Lithuania Propria (ethnic Lithuanian territory centered around Vilnius) had always been the primary anchor of power, as it answered directly to the ruler rather than autonomous dukes or governors. It provided disproportionately more income and soldiers to the country than any Ruthenian territory (in the Battle of Grunwald, banners from Lithuania Propria composed half of the Lithuanian army, as an example).

To break this ethnic Lithuanian importance in ruling Lithuania, centralization even beyond what was done in OTL would be required, which first, would be even more difficult to pull off with so much more mass attached to it, and second, would take a long enough time that by the time the rest of Rus' start pulling their weight, Vilnius will already be established as a major population center with regional importance, so moving the capital out of it into Kiev, Polotsk or wherever would hardly be worth it.

It would not look like an enlarged Cossack Hetmanate for obvious reasons (wildly different story of formation), but I would not discount it evolving into something militaristic and absolutist, even possibly similarly despotic to OTL Tsarist Russia. Medieval Lithuania, before the Union of Krewo, was definitely not lacking in despotism despite its innate decentralization, and the old theory of this being an imported influence from annexed Rus states has generally been discredited in favor of it rising from the Lithuanians themselves.

Still, I also believe that Lithuania would be more Western-influenced than it's Muscovite counterpart. For one, it wouldn't have to fight for access to Baltic sea ports, as it immediately comes with easy access to them, so Western technology, culture and influence would flow in more easily.

In my opinion, an Orthodox Lithuania would look like a some form of hybrid between OTL early modern Lithuania and OTL Tsarist Russia.
 
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