WI: no PLC-Swedish personal union

Personal union between Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth wasn't easy to maintain. No surprise it ended with disaster. Catholic King of Sweden residing on the wrong side of Baltic, with treacherous, power hungry uncle as regent, had very little chance to keep both crowns. So what if such union never happened? There are many ways to prevent such union.
Say, that John III of Sweden has one more son (his short living oldest daughter (born 1564) with Catherine Jagiellon is born as healthly boy instead, named Sigismund. He is followed by John jr. and Anna. TTL Sigismund is a bit similar to OTL Anna Vasa-disapointed with Catholic Church he converts to Lutheranism, but still keeps good relations with his Catholic brother (John jr is analogue of OTL Sigismund Vasa). So King John had big problem he faced IOTL solved-he could provide both Sweden and PLC with heir of right religion. John Jr Vasa would be the one winning election in PLC while his Protestant older brother would succeede father on Swedish throne. With Lutheran monarch residing in Stockholm Charles of Södermanland had little chance to take the throne, so he'll be either loyal or dead. What else changes? Among others:
-PLC and Sweden would have peaceful realations at least as long as brothers are still alive (until 1630s)
-Jan II Waza, King of Poland, not having to deal with uncle Charles, could concentrate on his another opponent-Chancellor Jan Zamoyski (who IOTL hoped to turn Sigismund III into his puppet, and seeing, that young Vasa is not willing to be his pawn, Zamoyski became fierce opponent of the King).
-Likely there would not be Swedish involvement in 30 Years War (which may not last 30 years ITTL) and no French subsidies for Sweden. ITTL Sweden would rather not be such warlike kingdom like IOTL. And Denmark would be regarded as stronger of Scandinavian monarchies for much longer time.
-Ducal Prussia is likely incorporated by PLC after death of Albert Frederick in 1618 (not only nobility of PLC but even Prussian estates wanted it, knowing that Elector of Brandenburg would not respect their rights. But Sigismund needed Protestant ally against his Swedish cousins, thus he agreed to pass Ducal Prussia to Electoral branch of Hohenzollerns.
-PLC and Sweden would cooperate against Russia during Time of (even deeper) Troubles.
-Wars about Livonia (which were continuation of war over Swedish throne between Sigismund and Charles) are avoided, PLC keeps Riga.
 
Personal union between Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth wasn't easy to maintain. No surprise it ended with disaster. Catholic King of Sweden residing on the wrong side of Baltic, with treacherous, power hungry uncle as regent, had very little chance to keep both crowns. So what if such union never happened? There are many ways to prevent such union.
Say, that John III of Sweden has one more son (his short living oldest daughter (born 1564) with Catherine Jagiellon is born as healthly boy instead, named Sigismund. He is followed by John jr. and Anna. TTL Sigismund is a bit similar to OTL Anna Vasa-disapointed with Catholic Church he converts to Lutheranism, but still keeps good relations with his Catholic brother (John jr is analogue of OTL Sigismund Vasa). So King John had big problem he faced IOTL solved-he could provide both Sweden and PLC with heir of right religion. John Jr Vasa would be the one winning election in PLC while his Protestant older brother would succeede father on Swedish throne. With Lutheran monarch residing in Stockholm Charles of Södermanland had little chance to take the throne, so he'll be either loyal or dead. What else changes? Among others:
-PLC and Sweden would have peaceful realations at least as long as brothers are still alive (until 1630s)
-Jan II Waza, King of Poland, not having to deal with uncle Charles, could concentrate on his another opponent-Chancellor Jan Zamoyski (who IOTL hoped to turn Sigismund III into his puppet, and seeing, that young Vasa is not willing to be his pawn, Zamoyski became fierce opponent of the King).
-Likely there would not be Swedish involvement in 30 Years War (which may not last 30 years ITTL) and no French subsidies for Sweden. ITTL Sweden would rather not be such warlike kingdom like IOTL. And Denmark would be regarded as stronger of Scandinavian monarchies for much longer time.
-Ducal Prussia is likely incorporated by PLC after death of Albert Frederick in 1618 (not only nobility of PLC but even Prussian estates wanted it, knowing that Elector of Brandenburg would not respect their rights. But Sigismund needed Protestant ally against his Swedish cousins, thus he agreed to pass Ducal Prussia to Electoral branch of Hohenzollerns.
-PLC and Sweden would cooperate against Russia during Time of (even deeper) Troubles.
-Wars about Livonia (which were continuation of war over Swedish throne between Sigismund and Charles) are avoided, PLC keeps Riga.
Well in the long term avoiding the Deluge and likely stunting Prussia’s (or ITTL still just Brandenburg) growth would be big positive for PLC and since Vasa’s and Habsburgs were on generally good terms this seems to put the Commonwealth in a much better position than OTL. A friendly Sweden even gives them a helpful ally against Russia. I wonder how long Vasa’s can maintain their position on the throne. Jan Zamoyski was a powerful man and it’s not unlikely that he outlives the king which could pose a problem for the succession.
 
Well in the long term avoiding the Deluge and likely stunting Prussia’s (or ITTL still just Brandenburg) growth would be big positive for PLC and since Vasa’s and Habsburgs were on generally good terms this seems to put the Commonwealth in a much better position than OTL. A friendly Sweden even gives them a helpful ally against Russia. I wonder how long Vasa’s can maintain their position on the throne. Jan Zamoyski was a powerful man and it’s not unlikely that he outlives the king which could pose a problem for the succession.
Zamoyski would need to live to his 90s to outlive King (Jan II Waza is bassically Zygmunt III with different name), and his position was undermined by Zborowski's case.
 
Even Zamoyski admitted to Zygmunt III, that due to his Jagiellon blood, no one would deny Polish throne to him and his sons, so as long as there are adult male Vasas around, they would sit on the throne. Also, without animosity between PLC and Sweden members Swedish branch could easily take the throne if Polish line is excint.

Meanwhile in HRE...
How would lack of Lion of the North affect 30 (or less) Years War? Would we see shorter war and Habsburg victory?
 
By the way, given that TTL Sigismund will likely marry OTL Gustav Adolph's mother, some genetics is bound to be there. 1/2 Wladyslaw IV, 1/2 Gustav Adolph is going to be an interesting personage... who, BTW, without war with Denmark in early 1610ies, is going to marry the OTL Winter Queen... so some of OTL 30 Years War pretext is gone by this.
Maybe, a different noble is invited to be the King of Bohemia TTL (Gabor Bethlen sounds like a likely candidate).
 
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I'm not entirely certain that someone else ruling Sweden rather than Karl IX and Gustav II Adolf will change some of the larger geopolitical issues - the protestants in Germany will be defeated, as will probably the Danes, and Sweden will still have a strong centralised state punching far above its weight class due to an effective administration. Men like Banér, Torstensson and Oxenstierna are still there even if Gustav II Adolf is not. The Swedes will be worried about the Emperor appointing an Admiral for the Baltic Sea and the Swedish peasants will be decently easy to convince that it is better that Swedish soldiers tie their horses to others' fences than others tying their horses to the fences of the Swedish peasants (an OTL argument used in the estates parliament to convince the peasants to agree to war).
 
I can't find that source now, but IIRC Johan Vasa wanted to marry his daughter Anna (who ITTL could stay with older brother in Sweden instead of going to Poland) to Danish prince, although I'm not sure which one. Was it future Christian IV or his brother Ulrik (I think it was the latter)?
 
I can't find that source now, but IIRC Johan Vasa wanted to marry his daughter Anna (who ITTL could stay with older brother in Sweden instead of going to Poland) to Danish prince, although I'm not sure which one. Was it future Christian IV or his brother Ulrik (I think it was the latter)?

Johan III also wanted to marry his daughter to an Italian prince (either the duke of Savoy, the widowed duke of Ferrara, or the grand duke of Tuscany). I suspect that her Sforza blood would've made her attractive to the duke of Parma (who was sitting on a portion of the former duchy of Milan) as well
 
Johan III also wanted to marry his daughter to an Italian prince (either the duke of Savoy, the widowed duke of Ferrara, or the grand duke of Tuscany). I suspect that her Sforza blood would've made her attractive to the duke of Parma (who was sitting on a portion of the former duchy of Milan) as well
If Anna is Protestant like IOTL, Danish marriage is much more likely (and more politically justifiable, chances of getting back Bona's lands from Spanish Habsburgs were close to zero).
 
If Anna is Protestant like IOTL, Danish marriage is much more likely (and more politically justifiable, chances of getting back Bona's lands from Spanish Habsburgs were close to zero).

Didn't say it was plausible. This WAS the Vasas we're talking about - they didn't always have the...strongest...grip on reality
 
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