WI: No Pilsudski and different rebirth of Poland after WWI

Very popular WI question in Polish AH community that was never asked here:

What if Joseph Pilsudski dies in 1914 before WWI. Leaving leadership of Polish independence movement to other political forces, most notably his rival and Dmowski and National Democrats.
1. Assuming no significant butterflies in WWI, just who might take charge of the very first practical steps towards independence in 1918?
2. Assuming ND takes power what would be the consequences taking into account the fact pro-Russian stance of conservative ND and their focus on Western expansion rather then attempts to recreate Commonwealth in the East, combined with anti-German attitude of their party?
3. What about Russian civil war? Would alliance with White Russians be more likely?
What would be consequences of no Polish support for Petlura in Ukraine? What are the prospects of success of incorporation policy and Dmowski line?
4. Would National Democrats play their neoslavism card and influence their attitude to Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia?
5. How does the new Polish constitution look like if it is not tailored against Piłsudski?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Dmowski would be worst possible "national father" for Poland, if I remember correctly he wished for a Poland with something like OTL borders in 1920.
 
Dmowski Line didn't really resemble modern borders:
Liniadmowskiego.png


Note that this was just a proposal at Versailles that would have to be discussed taking into account political considerations. Especially agreement with Russian forces in order to secure independence would perhaps reduce the unreasonable borders in the East, in exchange for support in western demands where Poles were more numerous. Also note, that this border project was later scrapped by Dmowski himself.
 
1. Assuming no significant butterflies in WWI, just who might take charge of the very first practical steps towards independence in 1918?
In November 1918 Dmowski (and his major supporters) were in Paris (if I'm not mistaken), so PPS-men would be in charge in Warsaw (Sosnkowski, for example).
But without Pilsudski, civil war between Endecja and PPS could be even more possible, than in OTL (Haller could became military leader of ND-side with Paderewski as figurehead and Dmowski as supreme leader).
2. Assuming ND takes power what would be the consequences taking into account the fact pro-Russian stance of conservative ND and their focus on Western expansion rather then attempts to recreate Commonwealth in the East, combined with anti-German attitude of their party?
1919 war against Germany would be more prolonged than in OTL. At the end Allies would make Germans to surrender and accept new border with Poland (maybe, worse for Germans than in OTL), but German-Polish relation in 1920-30-ies would be even more acrimonious. Pro-Russian stance means anti-Bolshevik and anti-Ukrainian policies. Assuming that the Reds would triumph as in OTL, it doesn't bode well for the new Polish state.

3. What about Russian civil war? Would alliance with White Russians be more likely?
What would be consequences of no Polish support for Petlura in Ukraine? What are the prospects of success of incorporation policy and Dmowski line?
White Russians were strongly against any enlargement of Poland beyond pre-war Polish Kingdom's eastern border. I don't see possibilities for lasting reconciliation between Dmowski's Poland and Denikin (some joint military actions could be possible, but they wouldn't change the White Movement's fate). Army of the UNR and Petliura government would be destroyed even faster than in OTL, with Poland as an additional enemy. Dmowski line could became real border in the case of even more successful for the Poles Polish-Soviet war; however, taking into account amount of luck, received by the Polish Army in OTL 1920, I doubt that Haller could do better than Pilsudski. So Endecja's government would receive more or less OTL eastern border.
4. Would National Democrats play their neoslavism card and influence their attitude to Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia
Alliance with the Czechs against Germans would be possible, but what to do with Zaolzie? And Yugoslavia... What Poland could do for the Serbs? And what it could receive from them?
5. How does the new Polish constitution look like if it is not tailored against Piłsudski?
It depends on Dmowski's decision, whether to become the President. If the answer is "yes", then Poland would have 1935 Constitution in 1919. If Paderewski or someone else would be chosen for figurehead presidency, then the Constitution would be similar to OTL March 1921 Constitution.
Besides, it depends on the level of violence during PPS-Endecja struggle for power. If civil war happened, then non-Constitutional dictatorship could be possible (at least for the early 1920-ies).
 
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