WI: No Partition of Jin (5th century BCE)?

[GauchoBadger]

During the Spring and Autumn Period of the imperial Chinese Zhou dynasty, which preceded the well-known Warring States Period, there was a vassal state of the Zhou emperor located in the center-north of the middle kingdom known as Jin (not to be confused with the Jin dynasty of the Middle Ages). While a powerful entity and power player within the Zhou sub-state system from the start of the period, the state apparently declined due to internal feudal strife between multiple aristocratic families for dominance over others and the Duke of Jin. Eventually, sometime in the 5th century BCE, Jin's central army was defeated by an alliance of three noble families, who went on to partition Jin between them, forming the states of Zhao, Wei, and Han. The creation of these three new states eased the pressure from the other major states within the empire (Chu to the south, Qin to the west, and Qi to the east in Shandong), allowing them some room to expand their influence outwards, thus setting the stage for their rise to prominence for the following Warring States period.
But what if the situation in Jin had stabilized, and the duchy had managed to remain as a single entity?
How powerful could Jin have been compared to its neighboring states?
Would the survival of Jin have led to an unification of China under its thumb? Or would the absence of a power vacuum in the center region of the middle kingdom have prevented the expansion of Qin into the area, thus prolonging the Warring States period?

 

[Hegemon]

During the Spring and Autumn Period of the imperial Chinese Zhou dynasty, which preceded the well-known Warring States Period, there was a vassal state of the Zhou emperor located in the center-north of the middle kingdom known as Jin (not to be confused with the Jin dynasty of the Middle Ages). While a powerful entity and power player within the Zhou sub-state system from the start of the period, the state apparently declined due to internal feudal strife between multiple aristocratic families for dominance over others and the Duke of Jin. Eventually, sometime in the 5th century BCE, Jin's central army was defeated by an alliance of three noble families, who went on to partition Jin between them, forming the states of Zhao, Wei, and Han. The creation of these three new states eased the pressure from the other major states within the empire (Chu to the south, Qin to the west, and Qi to the east in Shandong), allowing them some room to expand their influence outwards, thus setting the stage for their rise to prominence for the following Warring States period.
But what if the situation in Jin had stabilized, and the duchy had managed to remain as a single entity?
How powerful could Jin have been compared to its neighboring states?
Would the survival of Jin have led to an unification of China under its thumb? Or would the absence of a power vacuum in the center region of the middle kingdom have prevented the expansion of Qin into the area, thus prolonging the Warring States period?

To my knowledge this is actually quite possible. The Zhi clan had been gaining ascendancy in Jin and issued an ultimatum to the other three (Zhao, Hann, Wei) to surrender their influence and domains to Zhi. Hann and Wei agreed, but Zhao refused, and when the other three sieged the Zhao stronghold, Zhao secretly allied with Hann and Wei to destroy Zhi. Had Zhao not resisted or had Zhao been crushed quickly, you could see Zhi become predominant within Jin.

Jin’s potential is enormous. Even divided, it was no pushover. Wei quickly became a strong power under Marquess Wen, to the point that it was considered a hegemon and frightening enough that a coalition of Kingdoms was assembled to defeat it. Zhao was the last real opponent to Qin, and the battle of Changping utterly exhausted Qin. Qin only defeated Zhao by virtue of attrition: it recovered while Zhao never did. Now a unified Jin that implements legalistic or even proto-legalistic reforms is a beast to be contended with. It will almost certainly be a hegemon, and it is unclear to me if even all the other states put together at that time would be able to defeat Jin. Of course, it doesn’t have to be this way, Jin might be more lax than its OTL successor Wei in implementing reforms for example, but I believe a unified Jin is both possible and has enormous potential.

 

[GauchoBadger]

To my knowledge this is actually quite possible. The Zhi clan had been gaining ascendancy in Jin and issued an ultimatum to the other three (Zhao, Hann, Wei) to surrender their influence and domains to Zhi. Hann and Wei agreed, but Zhao refused, and when the other three sieged the Zhao stronghold, Zhao secretly allied with Hann and Wei to destroy Zhi. Had Zhao not resisted or had Zhao been crushed quickly, you could see Zhi become predominant within Jin.

Jin’s potential is enormous. Even divided, it was no pushover. Wei quickly became a strong power under Marquess Wen, to the point that it was considered a hegemon and frightening enough that a coalition of Kingdoms was assembled to defeat it. Zhao was the last real opponent to Qin, and the battle of Changping utterly exhausted Qin. Qin only defeated Zhao by virtue of attrition: it recovered while Zhao never did. Now a unified Jin that implements legalistic or even proto-legalistic reforms is a beast to be contended with. It will almost certainly be a hegemon, and it is unclear to me if even all the other states put together at that time would be able to defeat Jin. Of course, it doesn’t have to be this way, Jin might be more lax than its OTL successor Wei in implementing reforms for example, but I believe a unified Jin is both possible and has enormous potential.

Can Jin end up unifying China under its thumb earlier than OTL's Qin? That in itself could cause many butterflies.

 

[LostInNewDelhi]

To my knowledge this is actually quite possible. The Zhi clan had been gaining ascendancy in Jin and issued an ultimatum to the other three (Zhao, Hann, Wei) to surrender their influence and domains to Zhi. Hann and Wei agreed, but Zhao refused, and when the other three sieged the Zhao stronghold, Zhao secretly allied with Hann and Wei to destroy Zhi. Had Zhao not resisted or had Zhao been crushed quickly, you could see Zhi become predominant within Jin.

If the Zhi clan unifies the Jin domain, and later tries a similar gambit on a larger scale (getting other domains to declare their submission and surrender resources), how might they seek to institutionalize their status? Could there be a diarchy of the reigning Zhao head of state and a Zhi clan leader who is the effective head of government? It seems a similar reigning-emperor/ruling-strongman model was already in place within Jin at the time. The consequences of this on future theories/conceptions/historiographies of Chinese (and wider East Asian) kingship would be enormous.

 

[aura]

A surviving Jin doesn't prolong the warring states period: even disunited, Jin beats up every other state under marginally competent leadership. A united Jin (or rather a united Zhi, most likely) most likely crushes all other states by the time the first emperor historically comes around. even Han beats around Qin for a bit after the disunion-imagine how little chance they'd have against Jin proper.

 

[Hegemon]

If the Zhi clan unifies the Jin domain, and later tries a similar gambit on a larger scale (getting other domains to declare their submission and surrender resources), how might they seek to institutionalize their status? Could there be a diarchy of the reigning Zhao head of state and a Zhi clan leader who is the effective head of government? It seems a similar reigning-emperor/ruling-strongman model was already in place within Jin at the time. The consequences of this on future theories/conceptions/historiographies of Chinese (and wider East Asian) kingship would be enormous.

Strongmen (or rather strong-families) usurping a state are not rare in history, nor was Jin’s usurpation story unique during the warring states. An model of this familial usurpation the Tian clan usurping power in Qi, which they did quite successfully without fracturing like Jin did. The Tian clan first puppetized the Qi rulers, then deposed them officially. Jin was likely on that path until Zhi was destroyed by the other three clans. I don’t see why Jin would be any different if the Zhi has succeeded in gaining de facto power. The logical conclusion to the situation to me is that the Zhi keep the Jin rulers as puppets for a while, then depose them. A sort of “shogun situation” or “cloistered rule” is perhaps possible, but seems without precedent to me.