Devolution has changed the substance of Welsh and Scottish politics utterly, of that there is no doubt. But what if there had never been any devolution settlement? What impact would either avoiding the twin referendums in 1997 or watering down the settlement have on politics in the UK?
A Conservative victory in 1997 seems the surest way to stop any devolution settlement, but this seems very unlikely. Even if there was a Conservative victory in 1997 they can't keep winning forever.
It would require little for the 1997 referendum in Wales to fail with the result having been so close, but a failed referendum still produces interesting butterflies. What effect would the humiliation of a failure have on Labour in Wales and across the UK? In addition on Plaid Cyrmu's successes?
Stopping the Scottish referendum of 1997 is very hard. In fact, I suspect that our timeline is somewhat of an aberration for not having a degree of home rule come about sooner in Scotland. Perhaps it is easier to weaken the devolution settlement in Scotland rather than stop it entirely. Perhaps the Scottish Constitutional Convention could be weakened somehow? Or the second question, the question regarding tax-varying powers being devolved to the Scottish parliament, could be dropped from the ballot paper.
In any event, what PODs would you use to prevent or limit devolution and what do you think the consequences would be for politics in Wales, Scotland and the United Kingdom? Would Labour be weakened or strengthened without devolution? What would direct rule from London look like in 21st-century Britain?
Background Reading/Watching:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1997
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Constitutional_Convention
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_devolution_referendum,_1997
The Fall of Scottish Labour (2015):
The Rise of the SNP (2015):
A Conservative victory in 1997 seems the surest way to stop any devolution settlement, but this seems very unlikely. Even if there was a Conservative victory in 1997 they can't keep winning forever.
It would require little for the 1997 referendum in Wales to fail with the result having been so close, but a failed referendum still produces interesting butterflies. What effect would the humiliation of a failure have on Labour in Wales and across the UK? In addition on Plaid Cyrmu's successes?
Stopping the Scottish referendum of 1997 is very hard. In fact, I suspect that our timeline is somewhat of an aberration for not having a degree of home rule come about sooner in Scotland. Perhaps it is easier to weaken the devolution settlement in Scotland rather than stop it entirely. Perhaps the Scottish Constitutional Convention could be weakened somehow? Or the second question, the question regarding tax-varying powers being devolved to the Scottish parliament, could be dropped from the ballot paper.
In any event, what PODs would you use to prevent or limit devolution and what do you think the consequences would be for politics in Wales, Scotland and the United Kingdom? Would Labour be weakened or strengthened without devolution? What would direct rule from London look like in 21st-century Britain?
Background Reading/Watching:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1997
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Constitutional_Convention
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_devolution_referendum,_1997
The Fall of Scottish Labour (2015):