WI: No Operation Nickel Grass

Delta Force

Banned
It seems the first American shipments under Operation Nickel Grass didn't arrive until October 14, the same day the Israelis won the Battle of Sinai that began to turn the tide on the Egyptian front. Egypt began to receive Soviet resupply shipments on October 14 as well, and the war soon turned into a battle of attrition, with both Egypt and Israel suffering heavy losses. Eventually Israel was able to prevail.

However, what if Operation Nickel Grass had not been launched? Could Israel have achieved victory anyways? What would the repercussions be for the United States in the Middle East and the Arab-Israeli Conflict? Would the Arab states still try to launch a petroleum embargo?
 
Given the timescales, if NICKEL GRASS doesn't happen, the Soviet resupply to Egypt still will. A war of attrition where one side is being resupplied and the other isn't ends badly for the second party. The question is, how badly?

Best case, Israel is reduced to pre-1967 borders. Worst case, Israel cracks open the special weapons lockers and sends a Skyhawk on a one-way mission to Moscow, bringing about the Great Day of Universal Bereavement.
 
Given the timescales, if NICKEL GRASS doesn't happen, the Soviet resupply to Egypt still will. A war of attrition where one side is being resupplied and the other isn't ends badly for the second party. The question is, how badly?

Best case, Israel is reduced to pre-1967 borders. Worst case, Israel cracks open the special weapons lockers and sends a Skyhawk on a one-way mission to Moscow, bringing about the Great Day of Universal Bereavement.
To Moscow, NOT the invading armies or their supply depots/artillery/reserves?
Because nuking the Arab armies might very well cause Soviet nuclear retaliation, but hitting Moscow -If they could reach it, which an A-4 certainly can NOT - would guarantee the USSR hammers Israel. Yes that would kill a lot of Arabs, but the Soviets will be too angry to care and the Arab world will be too busy celebrating their victory. They have a major annual celebration in Egypt to mark the start of the war even given the way it went OTL, if destroying 'the zionist entity' involves some radiation deaths it will be seen as the price of victory. Or an evil plot to destroy them ...
 
To Moscow, NOT the invading armies or their supply depots/artillery/reserves?
That too. Actually, doing that and leaving Moscow alone is a more likely option.
Because nuking the Arab armies might very well cause Soviet nuclear retaliation, but hitting Moscow -If they could reach it, which an A-4 certainly can NOT - would guarantee the USSR hammers Israel. Yes that would kill a lot of Arabs, but the Soviets will be too angry to care and the Arab world will be too busy celebrating their victory. They have a major annual celebration in Egypt to mark the start of the war even given the way it went OTL, if destroying 'the zionist entity' involves some radiation deaths it will be seen as the price of victory. Or an evil plot to destroy them ...
Supposedly they planned for Moscow, it's right on the bleeding edge of what a Skyhawk can do one-way and at high level. This is the extreme worst case, where Israel sees their defeat as inevitable, and the nuclear weapons are intended to make sure that if they go down, everyone else is coming down too. It's not terribly likely, but it's just about possible.
 
That too. Actually, doing that and leaving Moscow alone is a more likely option.

Supposedly they planned for Moscow, it's right on the bleeding edge of what a Skyhawk can do one-way and at high level. This is the extreme worst case, where Israel sees their defeat as inevitable, and the nuclear weapons are intended to make sure that if they go down, everyone else is coming down too. It's not terribly likely, but it's just about possible.

The Sampson Option was the name for it I believe. Yes I have heard of it, but my fear of crazy desperate people with nuclear weapons keeps me hoping it is just a bad dream...
 
I'm almost 100% certain that the "Sampson Option" where they go full retard and attack European targets is pure neo-nazi bullshit. The Israelis would use their nuclear arsenal in a tactical role long before they even think of nuking Middle Eastern capitals let alone commit suicide by attacking Moscow for zero gain.
 

Delta Force

Banned
There would be a tactical nuclear phase prior to any strategic escalation. There isn't much point in having a nuclear force that only exists as a vengeance weapon, especially if your enemies don't have any nuclear weapons of their own.

It could even be a South Africa type gambit in which nuclear weapons are used or threatened to be used to attract foreign intervention on terms favorable to Israel.
 
I'm almost 100% certain that the "Sampson Option" where they go full retard and attack European targets is pure neo-nazi bullshit. The Israelis would use their nuclear arsenal in a tactical role long before they even think of nuking Middle Eastern capitals let alone commit suicide by attacking Moscow for zero gain.

I thought the Sampson Option bit had been discredited. I'll have to look that up...
 
Best case, Israel is reduced to pre-1967 borders...
Not the worst outcome in the world - West Bank goes to the Palestinians, split Jerusalem, Golan Heights back to Syria, Israel annexes the Gaza Strip and transfers the population to the new Palestinian state. Not perfect but you're never going to get perfect harmony out there.
 

Pomphis

Banned
Not the worst outcome in the world - West Bank goes to the Palestinians, split Jerusalem, Golan Heights back to Syria, Israel annexes the Gaza Strip and transfers the population to the new Palestinian state. Not perfect but you're never going to get perfect harmony out there.

Not the worst outcome if it results in peace. The problem is, why should it ? More likely you will see a repeat of the sixties pre-67, until the next round is fought.
 
More likely you will see a repeat of the sixties pre-67, until the next round is fought.
If that happens, the Israelis know that they're one Arab strongman with a point to prove away from being driven into the sea, and will act accordingly.

Meanwhile, every would-be Arab strongman knows Israel is one more big offensive from being destroyed, and act accordingly.

This is what is known as an unstable equilibrium. Another war is inevitable, the only questions being when it happens and who starts it.
 
How does Israel go in the war of attrition without the stuff that was delivered by nickel grass? A lot of aircraft were delivered including the IAFs first Hercules squadron but how many tanks, spgs, radars and CH 53s could be delivered in 145 C5 flights? How much other shit could be delivered by 412 C141 flights and would this stuff make a difference in the war?
 
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