WI no Operation Husky

Suppose the Americans prevail and Casablanca and no invasion of Sicily is approved following the surrender of Tunis, which still falls on the OTL schedule. How does this affect both World War 2 and the Cold War? What operation do the British and Americans do instead?
 

Deleted member 1487

Suppose the Americans prevail and Casablanca and no invasion of Sicily is approved following the surrender of Tunis, which still falls on the OTL schedule. How does this affect both World War 2 and the Cold War? What operation do the British and Americans do instead?
1943 invasion of France I assume. Which would be a bloodbath, but probably help end the war sooner.
 
Sardinia/Corsica as an earlier alternative to Husky. It threatens Rome directly. If Mussolini is deposed, the Germans occupy quickly, but the allies might be able to scoop up Sicily without much of a fight.

Crete/Dardanelles to try to get Turkey into the fold.

Norway to improve Soviet LL and try to get Finland to sue for peace. Also could provide closer bomber basing to Germany. But the Germans did station a ton of troops there.
 
The first proposal at the SYMBOL Confrence (at Casablanca) was for a capture of Sardinia, & that was to be a all British operation. It was proposed the Sardinian operation be executed not later than March. Grigg '1943' and Atkinson 'Army at Dawn' describe how the Brit CIGS Alan-Brooke had second thoughts on this early in the conference. He convinced Churchill that Sicilly should be the next target, which meant Tunisia had to be cleared of Axis forces first.. In the end Brooke got his way.
 

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The first proposal at the SYMBOL Confrence (at Casablanca) was for a capture of Sardinia, & that was to be a all British operation. It was proposed the Sardinian operation be executed not later than March. Grigg '1943' and Atkinson 'Army at Dawn' describe how the Brit CIGS Alan-Brooke had second thoughts on this early in the conference. He convinced Churchill that Sicilly should be the next target, which meant Tunisia had to be cleared of Axis forces first.. In the end Brooke got his way.

Really, so there was contemplation of getting started with a Sardinia invasion, even without finishing Tunisia?
 
1943 invasion of France I assume. Which would be a bloodbath, but probably help end the war sooner.

If its in the north of France, quite possibly... but considering the presence of officers and troops willing to collaberate that they'd found in North Africa and the continued existance of their state's control in the region (as well as the military assets already being present in the Med.), could Operation Roundup be kept on the backburner and replaced with an expanded Operation Dragoon to placate Britain's desire to strike at the "Soft Underbelly" while balancing it with Stalin's desire for a major second front? If talks could be opened up to get Vichy to "surrender" to an allied landing like historically occured with the Italians, supported by the commanders who'd surrendered in North Africa, a minimally contested cross-sea assult could see the Allies in possession of major ports more or less undamaged and able to quickly link up with a defecting Army of Occupation and organize Resistance forces into effective military units while by-passing the main German static defenses along the Atlantic Wall. Provided the Italian Navy remains neutralized, this could put the Allies into a much less damaging, if further from Germany Proper, strategic position.
 

Deleted member 1487

If its in the north of France, quite possibly... but considering the presence of officers and troops willing to collaberate that they'd found in North Africa and the continued existance of their state's control in the region (as well as the military assets already being present in the Med.), could Operation Roundup be kept on the backburner and replaced with an expanded Operation Dragoon to placate Britain's desire to strike at the "Soft Underbelly" while balancing it with Stalin's desire for a major second front? If talks could be opened up to get Vichy to "surrender" to an allied landing like historically occured with the Italians, supported by the commanders who'd surrendered in North Africa, a minimally contested cross-sea assult could see the Allies in possession of major ports more or less undamaged and able to quickly link up with a defecting Army of Occupation and organize Resistance forces into effective military units while by-passing the main German static defenses along the Atlantic Wall. Provided the Italian Navy remains neutralized, this could put the Allies into a much less damaging, if further from Germany Proper, strategic position.
Dragoon without Overlord first is a disaster for the Allies due the lack of air cover, infrastructure, and Axis favorable terrain (including ability to strike at naval supply lines from an uninvaded Italy). At a minimum Sardinia and Corsica need to be taken first and turned into 1st class bases, which would be a project for most of 1943.
 

Deleted member 1487

The troops would mostly be British so it was not happening.
In 1943 without Italy at all? Doubtful if done later in the year. The US had as many troops to commit if they dipped out of the Mediterranean theater entirely to make their 1943 invasion happen. An early 1943 invasion instead of Torch would have been majority British, but an invasion in say August-September 1943 would have been at least equal parts US forces after a redeployment from the Mediterranean.
 
Really, so there was contemplation of getting started with a Sardinia invasion, even without finishing Tunisia?

Its a bit ambigious. This was before Eisenhower told the Joint Chiefs, Churchill, & Roosevelt that the Tunisian enclave would probably no be cleared until May. While folks had a idea the news from Tunisia was not the best Some were still thinking much sooner. There are arguments that the Allies owning Sardinia/Corsica makes the Axis position in Sicilly & Tunisia untenable, but those are more apparent in hindsight & theoretical from the PoV of January 1943.
 
You are going to have to take Sicily eventually. Leaving the island in Axis hands means Axis aircraft (Luftwaffe) in a position between Sardinia and Tunisia. Part of the Allied Air Forces is going to be tied down keeping the Axis airfields on Sicily under siege.
Here is what I see happening:
1. Finish clearing Tunisia. The Allies need a major victory and it shows that they are going to finish what they start.
2.Make the jump to Sardinia in July 1943. Push on to Corsica.
3. Make a grab for Sicily in September instead of OTL Salerno. No Churchill Greek adventure to the Dodecanese. Those forces instead are used for the alternate Husky.
4. Build up Sardinia and Corsica as bases for Dragoon/Anvil. Keep mainland Italy under air attack.
The main problem with this strategy is that it gives the Germans time to fortify Sicily. BUT, you may tie up Axis troops sitting on Italian beaches waiting for an invasion.
 
My impression was that with the fall of Tunis delayed until May 1943, Sicily was the closest available target and it didn't involve a massive redeployment of the forces already in Tunisia.

Presumably at Symbol the Americans veto any attempt on Sicily knowing Turnis won't fall until 1943, because they fear being sucked into Italy as happened IOTL. I choose this POD because I think it is easier to never plan to go to Sicily in the first place than it would be to take Sicily and not land on the mainland considering the fascist regime was collapsing.

So the question can the forces in Tunisia be redeployed out of the Mediterranean entirely to try something elsewhere later in 1943, or does the next offensive have to be in the theater in which case its hard to not just invade Sicily. Could the Allies have also decided to to leave Tunis alone or does it need to be cleared, if only to avoid tying up lots of British and French troops that would still have to seal it off?
 
Tunis has to be taken. With Tunisia in allied hands, fast convoys can hug the coast under close air support.
Without Tunisia, the Mediterranean route is closed and everything goes the long way around South Africa.
 
You are going to have to take Sicily eventually. Leaving the island in Axis hands means Axis aircraft (Luftwaffe) in a position between Sardinia and Tunisia. Part of the Allied Air Forces is going to be tied down keeping the Axis airfields on Sicily under siege.
Here is what I see happening:
1. Finish clearing Tunisia. The Allies need a major victory and it shows that they are going to finish what they start.
2.Make the jump to Sardinia in July 1943. Push on to Corsica.
3. Make a grab for Sicily in September instead of OTL Salerno. No Churchill Greek adventure to the Dodecanese. Those forces instead are used for the alternate Husky.
4. Build up Sardinia and Corsica as bases for Dragoon/Anvil. Keep mainland Italy under air attack.
The main problem with this strategy is that it gives the Germans time to fortify Sicily. BUT, you may tie up Axis troops sitting on Italian beaches waiting for an invasion.

For this TL, I could see the Mincemeat convincing the Axis they would land in Rome directly from Sardinia.
I know it takes time to build up airfields/ports and logistics make it impractical, but the Italians will be fearful and keep units near Rome instead of Sicily.
 
My impression was that with the fall of Tunis delayed until May 1943, Sicily was the closest available target and it didn't involve a massive redeployment of the forces already in Tunisia.

It did require redeployment. The Eight Army Embarked from Alexandria, except the 1st Canadian ID which embarked directly from the UK. The US 7th Army embarked in Algerian ports. The 80 odd days between the capture of Tunis & Bizerte & the start of Op Husky were not enough time to both restore the Tunisian ports and prep for launching a amphib. op from there. Plus the two ports were not big enough to support a army group size operation. The small landing craft were collected or staged in the bay adjacent to Bizerte, it was a good shelter from weather. The all weather airfields in Tunisia were important. they allowed the Allied air forces to dominate the air over Sicilly.

So the question can the forces in Tunisia be redeployed out of the Mediterranean entirely to try something elsewhere later in 1943, or does the next offensive have to be in the theater in which case its hard to not just invade Sicily. Could the Allies have also decided to to leave Tunis alone or does it need to be cleared, if only to avoid tying up lots of British and French troops that would still have to seal it off?

One hindsight suggestion is to have left a holding force in Tunisia, let the Axis sink more forces in there and capture more African orchards and hills. The Allies can divert the OTL reinforcements elsewhere to build up another attack. Back of the envelope figures suggest this is worth looking at deeper.

For this TL, I could see the Mincemeat convincing the Axis they would land in Rome directly from Sardinia.
I know it takes time to build up airfields/ports and logistics make it impractical, but the Italians will be fearful and keep units near Rome instead of Sicily.

This is exactly what the Germans thought when Op TORCH was launched in 1942. Allied deception ops convinced the German leaders Sardinia was the target. Converesely the Italians correctly judged the target to be the French colonies.

During the war the Italains did little substantial to reinforce Sardinia. Sometime in late 1942 they seem to have decided the place was indefensible and left the ground force at two infantry divisions and some corps units, plus local militia.
 
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Tunis has to be taken. With Tunisia in allied hands, fast convoys can hug the coast under close air support.
Without Tunisia, the Mediterranean route is closed and everything goes the long way around South Africa.

This was the obsession of Brooke & Churchill. They had some good arguments in that direction. The Tunisian airfields were essential for this. Once captured by the Allies the weak Axis air forces were unable to interfere with Allied operations in the Sicilian Strait. Allied warships were passing the strait in April, the first convoy went through with insignificant interference in June. That summer Axis air force operating strength in the Med peaked at near 2,600 aircraft, Allied air forces opposing them grew past 5,000 operational aircraft & continued growing. Unable to effectively operate their air force out of Sicilly the Axis had lost control.

The Tunisian airfields were essential to contesting the air over Sicilly & the strait.
 
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