WI No Occupation of Haiti (1915-34)?

Supposing the United States doesn't invade and occupy Haiti in 1915 -- maybe the President (whoever he is) is (even slightly) sensitive to how it would play with the black vote, maybe the "German threat" is neutralized by then, or just what have you.

My primary question for this thread is the effect on Haiti -- generally speaking, just how much better does the nation do in the decades to come? And given these changes, what might Port au Prince be like today?
 
Only poorly thought out ones...

Wilson will not care about the black vote. He was alive during the ending of the US Civil War, and him mother refused to sleep in the Lincoln bedroom at the White House. Also, at this time most African Americans vote Republican. I doubt the money the US could lose was a lot, but it is the principle, I suppose. That last sentence is irony.

What raw resources does Haiti produce? WW1 will increase food demand, but the 1920's glut and the Great Depression will ruin the party. A problem is the US was irrationally worried about German influence at the time. Either the German immigrants have less influence, or the US more. Maybe the ban on foreign ownership can be gotten around by the US floating bonds with fixed dividend, err I mean interest payments? A savvy diplomat/politician could make it work.

My POD's are either: Teddy wins 1912, appoints Taft to run Haiti. He does ok; does not dismantle French education system but sets up vocational schools for the lower classes. Upper class is marginalized (not really necessary, more to diminish German influence). NYC finance breaks into Haiti by rolling over all debt at low rates (German immigrants charged higher rates). That means more current funds for bettering the needs of Haiti. Also to break upper class, poorer (not much) non mulattoes (full blacks? not sure what they are called) are given responsibility (the US declined to let the Haitians run Haiti). Can't think of any other POD's for this option.

2. A Progressive, non-Teddy wins (anti-imperialism, strong Christian needed. WJB?). The Philippines are let go. Haiti is ignored, especially with voodoo practiced. Still has debt, coups, and the Depression to deal with, but at least Haitians get to decide.

3. OTL, but Wilson fears Teddy, and his new Rough Riders. Says something about "blacks helping blacks, with white guidance" (might not be word for word...) so FDR and Teddy, plus the Rough Riders, are sent to Haiti instead of France. This POD might be too late, honestly, but it feels fun.
The Rough Riders are only for defeating the rebels, and do not shoot unarmed people. Black officers help give the US some good PR. Teddy sees this as another Philippines (very bad), but FDR keeps him on a leash. The US political dynamics mean the US is more moderate, and follows more of option 1. And for fun, when Wilson leaves the Republicans behind in 1919 (when he goes to France), they pass a bill that says the US will pull out of Haiti within 18 months, out of spite.
 
Wilson will not care about the black vote. He was alive during the ending of the US Civil War, and him mother refused to sleep in the Lincoln bedroom at the White House.
Wilson will purposefully alienate the black vote just 'cuz. That was Truman's mom though.
 
Wilson will not care about the black vote. He was alive during the ending of the US Civil War... Also, at this time most African Americans vote Republican.

I doubt the money the US could lose was a lot, but it is the principle, I suppose. That last sentence is irony.
Wilson will purposefully alienate the black vote just 'cuz.
Wilson, proud Virginian who supported the KKK and whose historical research helps forms a basis for the novel Birth of a Nation?

Yeah, I'd say having a Republican administration would be key here, though I actually think Theodore Roosevelt would be enough.

What raw resources does Haiti produce? WW1 will increase food demand, but the 1920's glut and the Great Depression will ruin the party. A problem is the US was irrationally worried about German influence at the time. Either the German immigrants have less influence, or the US more.

What if TTL has a shorter WWI, that's over by the summer of 1915 -- assuming it wasn't a straight up German victory, might this peace make the US less paranoid about their influence?

Maybe the ban on foreign ownership can be gotten around by the US floating bonds with fixed dividend, err I mean interest payments? A savvy diplomat/politician could make it work.

Interesting... By any chance, could this be done without invading the island, or at the very least without an occupation lasting more than a couple months?
 
I'm not convinced that Haiti does better. The US wouldn't have invaded at all if it were not for the corruption, violence and chaos that Haiti had fallen into. [Epitomized by the event that triggered the intervention -- President Vilbrun Sam had one of his predecessors killed in jail, following which an enraged mob tore Sam to bits].

Wilson's administrators were poor, but under the next three administrations, there was a major improvement: order was maintained, infrastructure (water supply and roads) improved and government debt eliminated.

Unfortunately, the country gradually slipped back into repression after the marines were withdrawn.
 
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