WI no Nixon (or any other US Prez) to China in 70s or 80s?

raharris1973

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WI neither Nixon (I'm indifferent to whether he is elected or not) or any other U.S. president dared *not* visit China, issue a joint communique with the Chinese, issue an MFN waiver, or otherwise normalize relations with them for fear of adverse domestic reaction through the entire 1970s through the middle 1980s?

The maximum the US does is lift certain travel and trade restrictions and talk over some issues at the Warsaw talks or other secret below the cabinet level meetings.

What is the most likely geopolitical result-

A) A continuation of Maoist 1960s style isolation and anger against both the superpowers and many other countries?

B) Sino-Soviet rapprochement before the end of the 1970s?

C) Sino-Soviet war?

D) Sino-US war?

E) A "silent" US-Chinese geopolitical partnership against the USSR, even while mutual rhetoric, when there is rhetoric, is bitter?
 
China would still experiment with market reforms but it won't go as far as it did in OTL. Economically it would improve ties with the Non-Aligned world, and reach out to the U.K. and Japan which were always more flexible to normalizing ties.

Politically it would seek detente with the Soviets, whether a suitable partner can be found in the Soviet leadership is another question.
 
Maybe our workers would still have the jobs outsourced to China and we would be more economically powerful than we are today and have a better standard of living and higher wages (if I recall, the average job back in the 1970's for Americans were factory jobs with an average pay of $30.00 an hour. Today, its Walmart with something like $7.00 an hour). Then again, maybe they would just be outsourced elsewhere.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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rapprochement w/ Soviets

when would the Chinese try to do this?

a) In Mao's last years? (taking the approach.....only Mao can make a credible compromise w/ Moscow....the Chinese version of only Nixon can go to China).

----pretty unlikely

b) After the post-Mao succession?

---more likely than a)

As for the Soviets being a suitable partner, I wonder what terms they would demand and what they could expect to get from China, and vice versa. I always thought the Chinese were the more prickly of the two during the split, but that might have only the case at the end of the 50s and the first half of the 60s. By 68 or 69, the Soviets negative views of China (and the stake the military developed in countering Beijing) may have been so entrenched that internal groups might have demanded concessions too far reaching for China to make.
 
It is one of those things that would happen sooner or later. I just wonder if China or US would have to offer a better deal to make it happen, ie who wanted it the most? My hunch says China after nearly going to war with Soviet.

However, fastforward a few years result in a Jimmy Charter presidency. That would be interesting in it self.
 
Unlikely a democrat would go to China when there is still a Cold War on the go. Thats just a gift for the Repubs in the next election campaign.

Carter would probably manage to cock it up like much of his other stuff. They would eat him for breakfast.
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