What if the NDP did not get the surge in support they received in the 2011 Canadian election and the Liberals weren't forced into third place and the Bloc Quebecois did not lose most of its seats? I made these changes to the election results: Quebec; NDP -27%, Conservative +5%, Bloc +15%, Liberal +7%. Elsewhere; NDP -9% Liberal +9%. This is what I got for the overall election result.
2011 Canadian election
Stephen Harper-Conservative: 153+10 40.84%(+3.19%)
Michael Ignatieff-Liberal: 67-10 27.42%(+1.16%)
Gilles Duceppe-BQ: 52+5 9.69%(-0.29%)
Jack Layton-NDP: 35-1 17.25%(-0.93%)
Elizabeth May-Green: 1+1 3.91%(-2.87%)
308 seats
155 for majority
The Conservatives do worse with regards to seats because many of the seats that got them their majority were seats they narrowly won over the Liberals in Ontario. I didn't increase the Conservative vote outside of Quebec as I thought that Ignatieff being less popular than Layton would be cancelled out by Ignatieff likely being less unpopular in a scenario where he doesn't lose so badly. What would be the effects of this election result? While Harper again fails to win a majority, it is also hard to see an alternative government forming since he is only 2 seats short. What would be the ramifications for him of this result and how would the resulting parliament go? What would be the effects of a stronger BQ? How would the last few years in Canadian politics have gone differently-would Justin Trudeau have still become Liberal leader and Prime Minister? What are your thoughts?
PS: Since this was 8 years ago I thought it was fine to put it in this forum. If this does count as Current Politics or end up shifting into that kind of discussion I'm fine with it moving to Chat and understand if that is what happens.
2011 Canadian election
Stephen Harper-Conservative: 153+10 40.84%(+3.19%)
Michael Ignatieff-Liberal: 67-10 27.42%(+1.16%)
Gilles Duceppe-BQ: 52+5 9.69%(-0.29%)
Jack Layton-NDP: 35-1 17.25%(-0.93%)
Elizabeth May-Green: 1+1 3.91%(-2.87%)
308 seats
155 for majority
The Conservatives do worse with regards to seats because many of the seats that got them their majority were seats they narrowly won over the Liberals in Ontario. I didn't increase the Conservative vote outside of Quebec as I thought that Ignatieff being less popular than Layton would be cancelled out by Ignatieff likely being less unpopular in a scenario where he doesn't lose so badly. What would be the effects of this election result? While Harper again fails to win a majority, it is also hard to see an alternative government forming since he is only 2 seats short. What would be the ramifications for him of this result and how would the resulting parliament go? What would be the effects of a stronger BQ? How would the last few years in Canadian politics have gone differently-would Justin Trudeau have still become Liberal leader and Prime Minister? What are your thoughts?
PS: Since this was 8 years ago I thought it was fine to put it in this forum. If this does count as Current Politics or end up shifting into that kind of discussion I'm fine with it moving to Chat and understand if that is what happens.