WI: No naval defeat in Egypt for Napoleon

Hi all,

I was relistening to the Revolutions podcast and it struck me that the naval battle that crushed the French fleet in Egypt was not inevitable.

If another formation had been adopted or if the Admiral had followed orders, the fleet could have been saved easily.

So what if it had been the case? What if the fleet had been saved?
 
Hi all,

I was relistening to the Revolutions podcast and it struck me that the naval battle that crushed the French fleet in Egypt was not inevitable.

If another formation had been adopted or if the Admiral had followed orders, the fleet could have been saved easily.

So what if it had been the case? What if the fleet had been saved?

I'm not entirely sure what Brueys could have done differently to save the fleet. Napoleon ordered no confrontation risking it and IIRC Brueys was planning to slip away at night, after abandoning his initial plan to flee because a lot of his men were ashore on work parties and he lacked the men to sail the ships and fight the guns at the same time. Of course Nelson threw away the rulebook and then attacked anyway.
 
Oh I didn't know that part, thanks for the details!

That's still an easy enough PoD though, Nelson decides to wait, enough men are on board to sail, Nelson doesn't find them...

Plenty of ways to avoid it without being a major change
 
It depends if the fleet is saved (i.e. follows Napoleon's advice and retires to Corfu), damaged (attritional battle with Nelson coming off slightly worse - perhaps the most likely outcome pre battle) or is victorious (possible if better preparation and slightly different deployments).

In all alt-cases Nelson may well be removed from command - he was under pressure from politicians and the Admiralty back home to bring the French to a successful battle. Without the Nile, the Second Coalition is probably butterflied away until after the alt-Peace of Amiens. I don't see Napoleon doing much better in Egypt or Syria (although he may last longer). Absent the Second Coalition I can see him getting bored of administering a rebellious colony in Egypt and returning to France to follow his OTL exploits sans the second Italian Campaign (no Marengo)

So for the alt-Trafalgar / Austerlitz campaign the French Army is in better shape (notably with no Marengo, Desaix is still available for Corps command) and the French Navy has a dozen more ships (and the British half a dozen fewer). Napoleon is probably not Emperor (yet) although is likely first minister or something similar in a broadly pro-war "Jacobin" administration (no military catastrophe displacing the government in 1799 and no coups as per OTL)
 
From what I understood, a lot of the trouble with the Syrian campaign was the lack of guns due to the lack of naval supplies. One can imagine that if the war fleet hasn't been crushed, they can offer protection to the convoys?

Probably won't lead to French Constantinople (one can dream) but probably a firmer foothold and turning the East Mediterranean into a French zone.

If the French are more stable in the region, taking Acre for example, could they starve Constantinople into submission? IOTL they relied on Egyptian grain after all
 
From what I understood, a lot of the trouble with the Syrian campaign was the lack of guns due to the lack of naval supplies. One can imagine that if the war fleet hasn't been crushed, they can offer protection to the convoys?

Probably won't lead to French Constantinople (one can dream) but probably a firmer foothold and turning the East Mediterranean into a French zone.

If the French are more stable in the region, taking Acre for example, could they starve Constantinople into submission? IOTL they relied on Egyptian grain after all
The French threatening Constantinople would lead to a Second Coalition as in OTL the Russian and Turkish fleets combined to occupy Corfu in 1799. In this time line they would combine with the British to make any French close blockade impossible and prevent Constantinople from falling to the French. After all, for all that Russian would like to control the Straits, preventing France from doing so would be the first objective.
 
Oh I didn't know that part, thanks for the details!

That's still an easy enough PoD though, Nelson decides to wait, enough men are on board to sail, Nelson doesn't find them...

Plenty of ways to avoid it without being a major change

Problem is that Nelson would never have waited. He had a tactical plan all worked out for defeating the French fleet and it was in a perfect position for that plan to succeed. He would always have ordered an immediate attack. You'd need a PoD involving Brueys, but even then it's tricky. If he had his ships weigh anchor and run for it the moment that Nelson was sighted then yes, he might have been able to get out of the Bay, but he would have been massively undermanned and at a hopeless disadvantage for any attack. Don't forget that Nelson had been looking for the French fleet for weeks and was highly annoyed at having missed them earlier (one of the great what-ifs of history is what would have happened if Nelson had come across the French fleet when it was escorting Napoleon's army, because it would have been a slaughter) and therefore champing at the bit.
 
Problem is that Nelson would never have waited. He had a tactical plan all worked out for defeating the French fleet and it was in a perfect position for that plan to succeed. He would always have ordered an immediate attack. You'd need a PoD involving Brueys, but even then it's tricky. If he had his ships weigh anchor and run for it the moment that Nelson was sighted then yes, he might have been able to get out of the Bay, but he would have been massively undermanned and at a hopeless disadvantage for any attack. Don't forget that Nelson had been looking for the French fleet for weeks and was highly annoyed at having missed them earlier (one of the great what-ifs of history is what would have happened if Nelson had come across the French fleet when it was escorting Napoleon's army, because it would have been a slaughter) and therefore champing at the bit.
Honestly, I think we are overstating the inevitability of that PoD.

Top of my head:
  • Nelson is not at the head of the fleet
  • Nelson gets sick and can't launch the attack in time
  • Enough sailors are on board to make a successful escape
  • That lone English ship doesn't force a wedge
  • Nelson arrives a few hours later and cannot start a battle during the night, leaving time to escape
None of that is particularly ASB but they would change a lot of things.

Sure "Nelson gets diarrhea in Malta and gets delayed by a few hours" isn't a particularly dignified PoD but as far as PoD go it's very small
 
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