Archibald

Banned
Somebody has to have written a TL on this already (in addition to Turtledove's series on the subject).

I'm very curious to see how a 1938 Wehrmacht will fare against the Czech fortified border. Also, no Skoda: much less panzers (at least for the Germans. The Czech, on the contrary, have them). The French military is flawed (no question about that) but it has also large numbers. Take time to mobilize, but after that, its a steam roller.
I really wants to see a TL where the Czechs hold long enough for France to attack Germany from the West, with a British demonstration of naval power in the Baltic. Kudos if chamberlain cancer kills him some years earlier to make room for a true British leader with BALLS (Chamberlain had no balls, not at all)
 

Archibald

Banned
I'm very curious to see how a 1938 Wehrmacht will fare against the Czech fortified border. Also, no Skoda: much less panzers (at least for the Germans. The Czech, on the contrary, have them). The French military is flawed (no question about that) but it has also large numbers. Take time to mobilize, but after that, its a steam roller.
I really wants to see a TL where the Czechs hold long enough for France to attack Germany from the West, with a British demonstration of naval power in the Baltic. Kudos if chamberlain cancer kills him some years earlier to make room for a true British leader with BALLS (Chamberlain had no balls, not at all)

My scenario doesn't include a coup against Hitler because the S.O.B was protected by the Devil himself.
 

Redbeard

Banned
But what is the French or British military response? If the French respond early, they may get smoked by the Germans, not because the latter is better prepared, but because the French will be poorly led and trained on offensive.
It is a myth only that the French pre WWII were not trained for offensive warfare. In fact their operational doctrines put very much emphasis on the offensive, but it was the WWI type of well prepared all-out offensive with heavy concentrations of firepower and movement meticulously co-ordinated (not unlike how the Soviets and Wallies later crushed Germany...).

In OTL the French leadership overestimated the German strength of 1939 and anyway found they were not ready yet for the kind of "crush everything before you" offensive they wanted. It appears like 1941 was the ambition for the great offensive.

If Munich had "failed" I'm sure the French wouldn't have waited until 1941 before taking action as it would be obvious that the Germans couldn't at the same time defeat Czechoslovakia and withstand a major French offensive. I'm also quite sure the Poles would sooner or later join the French - it would be their obvious opportunity to get rid of German claims and/or get a share of the booty. The biggest question is if the German army has "deleted" Hitler before the war really has begun.

We will not avoid a big war though, it will come when Stalin has his 500 Divisions ready by 1942 or 1943...
 
You sure?
How powerful was the nazi military in 1938? I reckon they only grew to a powerful conspiratory force in nazi politics after Stalingrad. Would there be a military coup or a civilian revolution, considering that Germany could be fighting France, Britain, and Czechoslovakia all alone?

If you really believe that then research "assassination attempts against Hitler". All in all there were some 40+ attempts to kill Hitler.
And quite a lot of them planned by army officers. Before WW2, in the early years and in the later years.
Most historians believe that the 1938 plot was the best planned plot and the one with the highest chance of success.
Why?
  • Read Shirer´s "Rise and Fall of the Third Reich". When the war broke out in 1939, according to him the German population didn´t cheer like they did in 1914. The atmosphere in Berlin was glum, depressed. The people really didn´t want a second "Great War". And that would have been a powerful justification for a military coup in 1938 too.
  • All of the army conspirators in 1938 were inside Germany. Meaning easy communication and planning. Later attempts all had to deal with some of the conspirators deployed to Russia, others in France, other in Germany....
    You get the idea.
  • In 1938 the army generals still had some "autonomy". It was only after the defeat of France that Hitler started to believe that he was the greatest strategist of all times. And that he should meddle in anything. Which means that in 1938 the plotters were able to assemble an assault unit comprised of nationalist (patriotic) anti-Nazis willing to sacrifice their lifes in an assault of the German Chancellory where Hitler resided.
  • The very same plotters did send an emissary to Britain to beg the British government to not surrender. To not give in.
    When Chamberlain went to Munich he destroyed any justification for a German military coup.
 
It is a myth only that the French pre WWII were not trained for offensive warfare. In fact their operational doctrines put very much emphasis on the offensive, but it was the WWI type of well prepared all-out offensive with heavy concentrations of firepower and movement meticulously co-ordinated (not unlike how the Soviets and Wallies later crushed Germany...).

In OTL the French leadership overestimated the German strength of 1939 and anyway found they were not ready yet for the kind of "crush everything before you" offensive they wanted. It appears like 1941 was the ambition for the great offensive.

If Munich had "failed" I'm sure the French wouldn't have waited until 1941 before taking action as it would be obvious that the Germans couldn't at the same time defeat Czechoslovakia and withstand a major French offensive. I'm also quite sure the Poles would sooner or later join the French - it would be their obvious opportunity to get rid of German claims and/or get a share of the booty. The biggest question is if the German army has "deleted" Hitler before the war really has begun.

We will not avoid a big war though, it will come when Stalin has his 500 Divisions ready by 1942 or 1943...
In Czech book series about Munich war author went with Czechoslovakia deffending and managing to blunt German offensives. Heydrich sent his men to Poland to attack Polish home quard units in Czechoslovak uniforms. Polish local commanders overreacted and attacked Czechoslovaks with local forces. Soviets used it as pretext and bound by Czechoslovak-Soviet treaty occupied eastern Poland. Meanwhile Czechoslovaks bought few hundreds of I-16s and nanaged to use them to gain local air superiority over Austria where they counterattacked from Slovak territory. Hitler is shot by his adjutant and generals took over. Now democratic Germany under Adenauer is preparing for war against USSR after it dropped any claims on Czechoslovakia. Stalin attacks in 1942 what is left from Poland.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Well, in 1938, Allies and Czech could also persuade Romania and Soviet to stop selling oil to Germany. Game over.
 
By offering what in return?

Well OTL the munich agreement was the final nail in the Little entente.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Entente

If France is standing up to Germany it likely holds together, and there is a good chance Yugoslavia and Romania honour their alliance with Czechoslovakia. Whether this involves going to war or not is hard to tell, but i am pretty sure Romania is not selling oil to Germany.

And i believe the Soviets offered to send troops to support the Czechs, and the Romanians were considering letting them through in sealed trains.

Germany was really hanging out there by themselves at Munich. The only friend Hitler had was Chamberlain.
 

Archibald

Banned
In OTL the French leadership overestimated the German strength of 1939 and anyway found they were not ready yet for the kind of "crush everything before you" offensive they wanted. It appears like 1941 was the ambition for the great offensive.

A striking example of France complex of inferiority and misjudgement of 1938 Wermacht is Henri Vuillemin.
Henri Vuillemin was chief of the Armée de l'Air all the way from 1938 to June 1940. In August 1938 he went to Germany to assess strength of the Luftwaffe in view of the iminent war with the Czech. The Luftwaffe went into full Potemkine mode and Vuillemin was greated with an impressive air show. He went back to France with a pretty low morale, convinced that the Armée de l'Air could no nothing against the Luftwaffe masses. His negative feelings went to Daladier and was one argument against war and in favor of the Munich agreement.
 
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By offering what in return?
What? Romania was member of Little Entente. Romania partially mobilised in 1938 end sent troops to Hungarian border to tie down Hungarians in order to discourage them to join attack on Czechoslovakia. They did the same in March 1939.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
What? Romania was member of Little Entente. Romania partially mobilised in 1938 end sent troops to Hungarian border to tie down Hungarians in order to discourage them to join attack on Czechoslovakia. They did the same in March 1939.
And Soviet was also willing to support Czech, not Hitler
 
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