WI: No Munich Agreement, WW2 in 1938

GauchoBadger

GauchoBadger

So, let's assume that Chamberlain dies early and is replaced by someone more war-willing, or is a bit less prudent. What then happens is that the munich agreement is never signed, and the franco-british governments threaten to declare war. Hitler, being a very bold and ambitious guy, still invades Czechoslovakia to get the Sudetenland anyway, but the french and british declare war then.
-How would the war drag through? Who has more chance of winning? I hear that nazi Germany's military industry only started to skyrocket after they defeated Czechoslovakia and seized their industry and supplies.
-Are there any nations other than Britain, France, Germany and Czechoslovakia willing to join the war on a specific side?
-In case of anglo-franco-czechoslovak victory, what would the terms most probably be?
-In case of german victory, what would the terms be?
 

Theoretical_TJ

The German army successfully coups Hitler as soon as France or Britain actually respond militarily. You could have ended up with a Civil War, but likely the Army wins.
 
GauchoBadger

GauchoBadger

Theoretical_TJ said:
The German army successfully coups Hitler as soon as France or Britain actually respond militarily. You could have ended up with a Civil War, but likely the Army wins.
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You sure?
How powerful was the nazi military in 1938? I reckon they only grew to a powerful conspiratory force in nazi politics after Stalingrad. Would there be a military coup or a civilian revolution, considering that Germany could be fighting France, Britain, and Czechoslovakia all alone?
 

jmc247

GauchoBadger said:
You sure?
How powerful was the nazi military in 1938? I reckon they only grew to a powerful conspiratory force in nazi politics after Stalingrad. Would there be a military coup or a civilian revolution, considering that Germany could be fighting France, Britain, and Czechoslovakia all alone?
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You mean German military.

The Nazi military was the Waffen SS and yes many in the German military had a serious coup all planned out if both Hitler and Chamberlain refused to back down. Chamberlain backing down discredited the officers who believed Hitler's strategy was too dangerous for Germany.

As of 1938 the German officers still had the power to force anyone joining the army to have to burn their Nazi Party card and all had to in order to put things in prospective. They lost that power a little over a year later.
 
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sloreck

In 1938, while British and French rearmament was ramping up, Germany was not as well prepared as it was a year later. Going through the Czech defenses in the Sudetenland would not be a walk in the park for the Wehrmacht. Unlike the Maginot line these defenses can't be flanked in a major way and the terrain favors the defense. Germany now faces a two front war to start - against France and against Czechoslovakia. Poland is not friendly, although whether or not Poland would jump in at this point is unlikely - Poland did take a small chunk of Czechoslovakia post Munich.

With the war starting like this in 1938, i expect that the neutrals; Holland, Belgium, Denmark, Norway, and also Poland, will take measures to improve military readiness. IMHO pro-German/pro-Nazi/fascist elements in these countries may lose some traction - perhaps Quisling is less influential for example. To the extent that these countries improve military preparedness over OTL levels over the next 12-24 months this will make things more difficult for Germany if they ever embark on campaigns in the west.

Even if Germany takes Czechoslovakia after a fight, this means a good deal of Czech equipment that was taken intact will be destroyed, and you may see sabotage/destruction of czech industrial resources taken intact OTL - all of which has consequences (negative) for Germany.
 
Ferreti

Ferreti

Beck starts his coup. little civil war. Either Göring is used as a puppet or the military takes over directly for some time before it allows a slow transition back to a democratic system (without communists).
 
GauchoBadger

GauchoBadger

naraic said:
I'm sure Italy will join the war before Germany falls in order to attempt to establish an Italian puppet in Austria.
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But how long would this puppet Austria last? I reckon it'd be unpopular, face with the nazis and pan-germanists.
Would Germany be allowed to keep Austria in case they lose?
 

Admiral Beez

Banned
Theoretical_TJ said:
The German army successfully coups Hitler as soon as France or Britain actually respond militarily. You could have ended up with a Civil War, but likely the Army wins.
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But what is the French or British military response? If the French respond early, they may get smoked by the Germans, not because the latter is better prepared, but because the French will be poorly led and trained on offensive.
 
GauchoBadger

GauchoBadger

Admiral Beez said:
But what is the French or British military response? If the French respond early, they may get smoked by the Germans, not because the latter is better prepared, but because the French will be poorly led and trained on offensive.
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I doubt the french will get easily crushed by the germans in 1938. The technological/supply/administrative development gap between Germany and France would be smaller, as the germans wouldn't have looted czech and polish tanks/supplies before their operations against France. France would have expected a trench war or a war of attrition ITTL, and it would be surprisingly likely.
Plus, France has Britain and Czechoslovakia on her side here. You don't just fight on two fronts at the same time, but i doubt Hitler is that sane to just surrender.
 
GauchoBadger

GauchoBadger

Admiral Beez said:
Britain has no forces in Europe in 1938.
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Rearmament was already a thing by 1938, i reckon it was as much of a viable option as Chamberlain's appeasement. Like i said, the PoD could be Chamberlain's early death, with a more interventionist PM (such as, at this time, Halifax) replacing him.
And even if the british are unwilling to commit land troops, they can still impose a naval trade blockade against Germany.
 
GauchoBadger

GauchoBadger

Admiral Beez said:
Were the Brits ready for ASW?

How many u-boats did Germany have by this time? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:U-boats_commissioned_in_1938
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Like i said, it depends on how willing the british government/command is to go to war before the sudetenland crisis. I hear Britain still had a decent navy by the interwar period which could be mobilised -- german industry wouldn't be fast enough to churn that high an ammount of U-boats to deal with a british blockade.
 

sloreck

The number of U-boats in 1938 was still small and most were small boats. Furthermore getting them to where they can do any serious damage is difficult with the outlets to the sea quite limited - either between Denmark/Sweden/Norway in to the North Sea, or through the North Sea end of the Kiel Canal. The U-boats were not really a threat until late 1940 and beyond with more boats, larger/long range boats, and U-boat pens in Norway and France.
 
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