WI: No Monitor at Hampton roads.

This, I think, would be an even bigger development then a temporary lifting of the blockade around Hampton Roads. Johnston is without a doubt at least an equal of McClellan, has a Confederate Army that hasn't been bloodied by two different Northern invasions, and the natural terrain of Virginia means he has plenty of river lines to use on the defense; in short, Johnston will be in position to make this Alt-Overland Campaign far too bloody for the North. Even presuming he isn't able to replicate and successfully execute something like he tried to do at Peachtree Creek IOTL, he'll subject the Army of the Potomac to such attrition that an Anglo-French intervention is probably likely, or the Democrats winning the Congressional elections that fall at least.
With McClellan's reputation? Poorly.

My imagination is that he advances on the Rappahannock, and Johnston manages to mousetrap him somewhere, which leads McClellan to retreat, and Johnson is simply holding the line. McClellan might then try an overland through the Valley aimed at Culpeper Court House, but would again probably be foiled there too. I'd see McClellan being defeated at every crossing, and giving way to a solid stalemate in 1862, with McClellan perhaps sacked earlier than OTL.
It doesn't help that McClellan will no doubt be as sluggish here as he was on the Peninsula IOTL, never mind the fact that he would carry out this campaign very reluctantly. Unlike Grant IOTL he will NOT fight it out on this line if it takes all summer.

This is where the POD really generates a LOT of Butterflies. The aftermath of a post alt-Overland campaign has the potential to go in a lot of directions. Lee may not get the chance to command the ANV for example.
 
It doesn't help that McClellan will no doubt be as sluggish here as he was on the Peninsula IOTL, never mind the fact that he would carry out this campaign very reluctantly. Unlike Grant IOTL he will NOT fight it out on this line if it takes all summer.

This is where the POD really generates a LOT of Butterflies. The aftermath of a post alt-Overland campaign has the potential to go in a lot of directions. Lee may not get the chance to command the ANV for example.

If McClellan got sacked earlier, say August, would he be replaced overall by Pope perhaps? That seemed to be Lincoln's choice, and with a most likely much less successful (or at least well prosecuted) campaign in April and May, he could be replaced in June/July rather than November.

There's still the opportunity for Johnston to get wounded/irk Davis into replacing him, but someone other than McClellan taking over in summer 1862 is a very interesting idea.
 
Most of us who are familiar with the ACW know of the battle between the USS Monitor and the CSS Virginia on March 9,1862; however, few people know the Monitor encountered a storm that came close to sinking her. So I got to wondering....


So what are your thoughts? What effects do you think will occur as a result of the Monitor's sinking?

From a shipbuilding standpoint, I don't see too much butterflies. Once the Confederacy realizes what the Merrimac/Virginia can do, they will start to build more of them as harbor defense ships. Once the Union realizes what the Merrimac/Virginia can do, it will copy the design for its own purposes. Once the French, German, English, Russian... Japanese??? Observers realize what is going on they'll hurry to send all available data to their respective navy shipyards. So the only difference I see is that rotating gun turrets, as on the Monitor, will not be introduced as mainstream armament as quickly as otl and navies still prefer armored broadsides at least until 1914.

In the meantime, even with the blockade capacities of the Union navy reduced by half, the Union industrial capacity still vastly outpaces the ones of the South, so before too long the Confederacy as in OTL will still have to resort to power their new ironclads with refurbished steam engines raided from captured paddle steamers.
 
If McClellan got sacked earlier, say August, would he be replaced overall by Pope perhaps? That seemed to be Lincoln's choice, and with a most likely much less successful (or at least well prosecuted) campaign in April and May, he could be replaced in June/July rather than November.

There's still the opportunity for Johnston to get wounded/irk Davis into replacing him, but someone other than McClellan taking over in summer 1862 is a very interesting idea.

Which poses the interesting question: If the Merrimac/Virginia somehow turns the tide for the Confederacy at Richmond, would McClellan get fired earlier and replaced with a (more) competent general? Or would he just muddle on as OTL with all OTL consequences, plus Richmond still having a decent supply line from more successful blockade runners.
 
From a shipbuilding standpoint, I don't see too much butterflies. Once the Confederacy realizes what the Merrimac/Virginia can do, they will start to build more of them as harbor defense ships.
As per OTL; the Richmond class I mentioned earlier became the basis for all Confederate casemate ironclads.
Once the Union realizes what the Merrimac/Virginia can do, it will copy the design for its own purposes.
Uh no. Even with her greater success ITTL, the Virginia was very slow, hard to steer and unseaworthy. A more likely model for the Union would be the New Ironsides.
Once the French, German, English, Russian... Japanese??? Observers realize what is going on they'll hurry to send all available data to their respective navy shipyards. So the only difference I see is that rotating gun turrets, as on the Monitor, will not be introduced as mainstream armament as quickly as otl and navies still prefer armored broadsides at least until 1914.
I would argue that not building more Monitor-style ships may actually be a blessing in disguise; while Monitors were tough ships, they still had a number of shortcomings. One big problem was that with the cramped turret(s), Monitors had very slow rates of fire (one shot every 7-8 minutes) limiting their offensive power.
In the meantime, even with the blockade capacities of the Union navy reduced by half, the Union industrial capacity still vastly outpaces the ones of the South, so before too long the Confederacy as in OTL will still have to resort to power their new ironclads with refurbished steam engines raided from captured paddle steamers.
That was a big problem; the Arkansas, for example had constant problems with her engines, which led to her scuttling.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
That was a big problem; the Arkansas, for example had constant problems with her engines, which led to her scuttling.

The inability of the Confederacy to manufacture sufficiently powerful engines to drive her ironclads was one of its greatest shortcomings of the war.
 
In the wake of the Virginia having greater success against the Union ships at Hampton Roads, the Confederates could decide to launch a campaign to secure the north bank of the James River by clearing out the Union troops in the area.

As this map shows, there were three major Union positions; Camp Butler, Fort Monroe and Fort Wool. If the Confederates seize these positions, this will make the James much more secure for the Confederates. IOTL Major General "Prince" John Magruder was supposed to cooperate with Buchanan for a joint Army-Navy attack on March 8, but was unwilling to do so.
 
After thinking about it, the Orange & Alexandria Railroad is literally the only route McClellan could use to march down Virginia. With the Peninsula route out of the options, the Richmond, Fredericksburg & Potomac railroad is the only other option, but is rather impractical as the primary supply depot (Aquia Landing) is supplied by sea, something McClellan would find to risky given the hysteria about the Merrimac ITTL. So there is no chance of Grant’s or Burnside’s or Hooker’s route being used.

A march down the O&A railroad would be a frustrating one for McClellan. The route did not even lead to Richmond; in fact it led away from Richmond, with Charlottesville being the closest it can get to Richmond. The railroad in question did not supply an entirely adequate volume of traffic, and it represented a long, extended, and indirect route of advance, rendering Union communications vulnerable. This was why Grant went around Lee’s right in 1864, but that option isn’t available for McClellan. If Stuart rode around McClellan’s line and wreaked havoc on McClellan’s supply lines, McClellan would have to halt his advance and possibly retreat.

To McClellan’s advantage, Lincoln is more likely to let him keep the I Corps in the Army of the Potomac and provide McClellan a large numerical advantage over Johnston, while Johnston would not gain Macgruder’s entire force.

I could see Johnston withdrawing to Rappahannock station in hopes of landing a severe blow against McClellan. If the Army of the Potomac were south of Rappahannock station, their backs will be on the Rappahannock river line, where Johnston could launch a punishing counterattack.

On the naval front, Norfolk would remain in Confederate hands for the foreseeable future.
In the wake of the Virginia having greater success against the Union ships at Hampton Roads, the Confederates could decide to launch a campaign to secure the north bank of the James River by clearing out the Union troops in the area.

As this map shows, there were three major Union positions; Camp Butler, Fort Monroe and Fort Wool. If the Confederates seize these positions, this will make the James much more secure for the Confederates. IOTL Major General "Prince" John Magruder was supposed to cooperate with Buchanan for a joint Army-Navy attack on March 8, but was unwilling to do so.
I would like to point out that Macgruder did approach Camp Butler on July 28, 1861 to demand its surrender. The heavy fortifications of Camp Butler discouraged any Confederate attack, and Fort Monroe would have proven to be a tough nut to crack, especially without any heavy siege artillery. Naval bombardments on fortresses tended to be ineffective, though it had a rather demoralizing effect on the men.
 
Given Ericsson's poor treatment at the hands of the Navy I'm rather shocked he even considered helping them. A very reasonable butterfly would be he refuses to submit his model. OTOH the Coles turret does point the way towards a similar ship in the future, but that doesn't help now...
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I would like to point out that Macgruder did approach Camp Butler on July 28, 1861 to demand its surrender. The heavy fortifications of Camp Butler discouraged any Confederate attack, and Fort Monroe would have proven to be a tough nut to crack, especially without any heavy siege artillery. Naval bombardments on fortresses tended to be ineffective, though it had a rather demoralizing effect on the men.

If the CSS Virginia has the run of Hampton Roads, can the Confederates cut off Fort Monroe's food supply and starve them out?
 
Given Ericsson's poor treatment at the hands of the Navy I'm rather shocked he even considered helping them. A very reasonable butterfly would be he refuses to submit his model. OTOH the Coles turret does point the way towards a similar ship in the future, but that doesn't help now...
How Ericsson reacts to the Monitor's loss would generate a swarm of butterflies by itself. The Navy would certainly try to have Ericsson re-pay the money spent on the ship (citing the "complete success" clause in the contract). Lincoln, however, could encourage Ericsson to build another ship.
 
If the CSS Virginia has the run of Hampton Roads, can the Confederates cut off Fort Monroe's food supply and starve them out?
Looking up ‘How the North won’ by Archer Jones and Herman Hattaway, Fort Monroe was supplied to last 60 days of siege according to Commisary General Taylor.

The Battle of Hampton Roads led to the War Board panicking and taking measures to ensure the Fortress was supplied to withstand a siege for 6 months. The narrow land connection to Virginia and the size of the fortress ensured that a Confederate land assault was not likely to succeed and the sturdiness of the fort allowed it to withstand any naval bombardment the Merrimac can throw at it.

So in order for Fortress Monroe to fall, the Confederates must ensure the supply lines remain cut for more than 60 days.
 
Virginia had Washington in a state of hysterics since it was believed she could sail up the Potomac and shell Washington at her leisure if allowed to move unmolested.

AFAIK, Sec of War Stanton was hysterical, but most everyone else knew better. Navy Sec Welles assured the Cabinet that Virginia drew too much water to pass Kettle Bottom Shoals.
 
Well, if worst comes to worst, a Tiger tank could beat many Sherman tanks, but the USA could build many many Sherman tanks. Also, Monitor's guns with a full charge could crack open Virginia.

The OP has a storm sinking Monitor, so the design's battle-worthiness hasn't been doubted.
 
Well, if worst comes to worst, a Tiger tank could beat many Sherman tanks, but the USA could build many many Sherman tanks. Also, Monitor's guns with a full charge could crack open Virginia.

The OP has a storm sinking Monitor, so the design's battle-worthiness hasn't been doubted.
Exactly; I can see Lincoln simply asking Ericsson to build a new Monitor. It took just over three months to build the first one so the second one could be built quicker (incorporating lessons learned from creating the original.)
One possible change would be Lincoln asking Ericsson to build the new ship in Baltimore instead of Brooklyn so that it doesn't have to risk storms on the high seas or an encounter with the Virginia at the entrance to Chesapeake Bay; that way it could be in position to defend the northern area of the Bay and have a chance to do trial runs.
 
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Looking up ‘How the North won’ by Archer Jones and Herman Hattaway, Fort Monroe was supplied to last 60 days of siege according to Commisary General Taylor.

The Battle of Hampton Roads led to the War Board panicking and taking measures to ensure the Fortress was supplied to withstand a siege for 6 months. The narrow land connection to Virginia and the size of the fortress ensured that a Confederate land assault was not likely to succeed and the sturdiness of the fort allowed it to withstand any naval bombardment the Merrimac can throw at it.

So in order for Fortress Monroe to fall, the Confederates must ensure the supply lines remain cut for more than 60 days.

Well say the Confederates got the clever idea to build mortar rafts like Grant and Pope did out West, that might help. It probably won't make the siege shorter, but I could see it helping with morale, making the Confederates feel better and the Union troops demoralized. Especially if they can see their own navy further out to sea and realize it won't be coming to help.

If the Confederates do manage to besiege Fort Monroe for, let's say 70 days, so it would surrender sometime around June 19th, how secure is the Confederate position at Norfolk now? And with Fort Monroe besieged you probably have McClellan being pushed into action well in advance of what he wants, and if he delays he is given an ultimatum. Move to take the pressure off of Fort Monroe, or face dismissal.

AFAIK, Sec of War Stanton was hysterical, but most everyone else knew better. Navy Sec Welles assured the Cabinet that Virginia drew too much water to pass Kettle Bottom Shoals.

And a single ironclad as difficult as Virginia isn't exactly an existential threat to Washington either.
 
Well say the Confederates got the clever idea to build mortar rafts like Grant and Pope did out West, that might help. It probably won't make the siege shorter, but I could see it helping with morale, making the Confederates feel better and the Union troops demoralized. Especially if they can see their own navy further out to sea and realize it won't be coming to help.
That is true, I suppose. Naval bombardments rarely did any heavy damage in the American Civil War but proved to be a huge morale booster for the side with the gunboats.

If the Confederates do manage to besiege Fort Monroe for, let's say 70 days, so it would surrender sometime around June 19th, how secure is the Confederate position at Norfolk now? And with Fort Monroe besieged you probably have McClellan being pushed into action well in advance of what he wants, and if he delays he is given an ultimatum. Move to take the pressure off of Fort Monroe, or face dismissal.
If Fort Monroe falls, the Union would have lost ‘the Key to the South’. Camp Butler would surely be lost with Fort Monroe and thus Norfolk is completely secure.

The fall of Fort Monroe also relieves a lot of pressure from Union coastal raids in South Virginia and North Carolina. Burnside’s North Carolina expedition may be aborted due to its fall and sent to McClellan’s command instead.

To be frank, McClellan is pretty much doomed to failure on the Orange & Alexandria Railroad route.

The mentioned railroad did not supply an entirely adequate volume of traffic, and it would take months of build up to ensure adequate supply would be ready for any such campaign, and time would not be on McClellan’s side. So McClellan has two options:

1) Agree to go on the offensive. The Army of the Potomac would probably march slowly to keep in touch with its supplies. If Stuart could go ride around the lines, then the campaign is over and the Army of the Potomac would have to go back to its starting point. Considering the pitiful state of the AotP’s cavalry force was (only one cavalry brigade (regulars) and volunteer cavalry dispersed), I’m fairly certain that Stuart can do so with ease.

2) Don’t give in to the demand. I don’t think Lincoln will immediately relieve McClellan, but the relationship between the two will deteriorate to quite an extent. This may fuel the desire in the Republican Party to sack him.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
What a coincidence! I had just been thinking of this POD last week. Given that my knowledge doesn't exceed reading one or two books, Les Tuniques Bleues and playing Frank Hunters From Sumter to Appottomax I will refrain from commentary but follow this thread with interest :)
 
First of all, thanks to everyone who commented on this post!

A few observations:

Regarding the James River, I agree that any assault on Fort Monroe would be long and drawn-out, requiring a massive army and siege train. As an alternative, I would consider an attack on Camp Butler instead; if the Confederates could seize the camp and emplace artillery there, it would further cement control of the mouth of the James. One possibility; Lee is given command of the Army of the Peninsula with reinforcements and ordered to seize Camp Butler.

As for McClellan, as Arnold d.c. noted, his strategic options are quite limited. McClellan would no doubt insist the Navy secure at least Aquia Landing so he can use the R,F & P railroad as his line of advance. He could also consider operations in the Shenandoah Valley to prevent Confederate incursions.

For Secretary Welles, his first priority will be to a) protect Fort Monroe and b) find ways to counter the Virginia. IOTL several ships with armored bows designed for ramming were sent to Hampton Roads to counter the Virginia; ITTL they could be sent to Fort Monroe or Baltimore to protect against the Virginia.

One person who could be brought to the forefront would be Charles Ellet Jr. An eccentric genius, he had been proposing for years the creation of steam powered rams to the Navy but got no interest. IOTL after the Virginia sank the Cumberland, he got a hearing with Secretary Stanton. Stanton was quite impressed and appointed him an Army Colonel sent to convert steamboats into rams on the Ohio river. ITTL, Stanton could ask him to build a fleet of Rams in Baltimore as a means of attacking the Virginia. (IOTL the "Ellet Rams" were quite successful, playing a major role in the Battle of Memphis).
 
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