WI: No Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact

And likely it would be much worse than that. The Poles were getting better at resisting the Germans and the Germans were tiring, which would mean casualties gained per unit time would be increasing for the Germans.

Indeed, I mentioned that this is a conservative estimate, and exhaustion would certainly be a factor if the Germans want to continue with the same pace - which they have to.

I think the odds are against the generals overthrowing Hitler though. The Germans expected Poland to be a harder fight in OTL, and they expected France to invade deeper into Germany. However, these expectations did not in OTL cause the German commanders to overthrow Hitler as soon as Britain and France declared war. So TTLs war of Poland-versus-Germany with no USSR would lead to something much closer to what was expected. I can't see the generals overthrowing Hitler for that.

True. Not for that. I.e., not for merely having won in Poland but at a noticeable price, and for having lost a bigger morsel of the Saarland, and for not having Soviet friendship and promised supplies. My hypothesis, if you remember it, was that the generals say no - in words, if Hitler will take them, in bullets only otherwise - when ordered to carry out Fall Gelb, the following spring, with a much depleted army due to both these casualties and the need to garrison Poland significantly.

Now that I think of it, the regime will also be under considerable pressure to do something about the Saarland - an idea which a depleted Heer needs like a second you know what, but it's a political issue.

I get what you say about post-war justifications. But another fact to keep in mind is that Hitler would have wanted Fall Gelb in October, and then in November 1940. In OTL. Why didn't such a thing happen? Because the generals said no. And, that time, Hitler grudgingly accepted to wait for the spring.

I tend to believe it will end in a fatal gun-cleaning accident because in OTL, the generals could say: "not now, let's wait for the good weather". In this scenario, they can't set a waiting time of just a few months over winter time; the prudent thing to do would be to wait a full year, in order to rebuild and expand the army. But Hitler will be keenly aware that time is on the enemy's side, that the strategic stockpile of rubber won't last for long, that the Romanians are being difficult with the oil prices, and that the French and British ambassadors in Moscow are offering Stalin the moon and the stars if he'll get down the fence on the right side. So he'll insist.
 

trajen777

Banned
And likely it would be much worse than that. The Poles were getting better at resisting the Germans and the Germans were tiring, which would mean casualties gained per unit time would be increasing for the Germans. The Poles would definitely be pushed back, but I think there is a small chance that they'll be able to hold onto the Romanian bridgehead until the war is decided one way or the other on the French front.



I agree that without the M-R pact Hitler may not have attacked Poland to start with - he may have decided to go after France first.

I think the odds are against the generals overthrowing Hitler though. The Germans expected Poland to be a harder fight in OTL, and they expected France to invade deeper into Germany. However, these expectations did not in OTL cause the German commanders to overthrow Hitler as soon as Britain and France declared war. So TTLs war of Poland-versus-Germany with no USSR would lead to something much closer to what was expected. I can't see the generals overthrowing Hitler for that.

It is really worth remembering that even those generals who did not agree with Nazi ideology saw nothing wrong with sacrificing young German men by the truckload for the cause of "restoring Germany to her rightful place" and to re-awaken German honour after the war-shy weakness of the Weimar period. Oh, and these are generally men who took their oaths very seriously - and their oaths were to Hitler personally. Post-war whitewashing by the surviving generals (who have generally been rather thoroughly debunked now, but whose lies still live on in the popular view of the war) and by the interests of the Cold War West to find "good Germans" around whom they could build a West German ally against the Soviet Union, in my view gives an unrealistic view of the virtues of the German military and of the willingness of the German generals to overthrow their leader. Of course they'd say in their post-war biographies (written for the American and British audiences) that they really, in their heart of hearts, wanted to overthrow Hitler and would have done so at the first opportunity!

fasquardon

The generals all had experience fighting in WW1. Under 1939 conditions, with a much weaker army then 1914, and facing a two front war (potential) i would say their was a hi percentage of Hilter overthrow. This would be what they would face :
1. No allies
2. A large Polish army
3. Stalin as a question mark
4. A French army which was generally viewed as the worlds strongest army at the time
5. A British blockade with a small German navy .
6. A very strong portion of the German army would have to invade Poland and leave the border open in the west (same situation)
7. However the majority of the German army would have to shift west (and consolidate Poland) leaving nothing in the East to defend vs USSR
8. GDP vs the enemies + potential USSR was so skewed against Germany

So with these considerations, the lack of the the aura of the MR treaty, lots of the generals would be concerned about this war.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
The German military really seems to have feared the Soviets not at all though. France and Britain, yes. Russia no.
 
The generals all had experience fighting in WW1. Under 1939 conditions, with a much weaker army then 1914, and facing a two front war (potential) i would say their was a hi percentage of Hilter overthrow. This would be what they would face :

For sure the generals (and indeed Hitler, who from all reliable reports was quite reasonable if you ignore the fact that he was fully invested in his nutzoid ideology) would be aware of your 8 points. However, in OTL the German generals were planning for a harder WW2 than they actually got - they thought Poland would fight harder, they thought the French would fight harder, they thought the Soviets would fight harder - and they still thought they could win. Even accounting for underestimating the sheer flood of war material that the US was able to deploy and the speed with which the US was able to deploy its economic power (and that latter point does seem to have been seriously underestimated by the German leadership), I can't help but think that the leadership of the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe must have been utterly deluded.

When you factor together the seriousness with which most officers took their oaths to Hitler and the over-inflated ideas of German military strength that the officer corps had, I do not think Hitler would be under real threat until far too late.

fasquardon
 
.. in OTL the German generals were planning for a harder WW2 than they actually got (...), they thought the French would fight harder, (...)- and they still thought they could win.

Yes. With what they had. Now put together the German generals' overestimation of the French, with the Heer being able to use only two thirds of the assets it used in OTL in 1940.
Would they still think they could win?
That's the question.

Anyway, I'm not giving it for certain that there would be a coup. Maybe the generals manage to convince Hitler to wait. Or maybe they attack anyway, even against their own best judgement. Maybe we should go into the detail of how many troops do they need to leave in Poland (a larger occupied territory than they had in OTL) given that the Soviets are at least unfriendly if not outright hostile. Maybe we should assess what chances of success are left for Fall Gelb, with the troops they can use in this OTL.
 
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