The Siege of Cochin (1504) was one of the most detailed sieges of the modern age, mainly due to its astonishing nature -- a thousand portuguese and cochinese managed to defeat tens of thousands of the Zamorin of Calicut's troops, due to a combination of luck, spying on the enemy's command structure, and the notable cleverness of portuguese commander Duarte Pacheco.
But what if at least one of these factors wasn't present, and the portuguese had lost the battle? What if the portuguese presence in southern India had been strangled in the cradle?
Could the Zamorin manage to estabilish a kingdom of Kerala in some way?
With a less direct portuguese presence in Dravidia, what are the effects on trade and the overall economy of Portugal and India?
 
The Siege of Cochin (1504) was one of the most detailed sieges of the modern age, mainly due to its astonishing nature -- a thousand portuguese and cochinese managed to defeat tens of thousands of the Zamorin of Calicut's troops, due to a combination of luck, spying on the enemy's command structure, and the notable cleverness of portuguese commander Duarte Pacheco.
But what if at least one of these factors wasn't present, and the portuguese had lost the battle? What if the portuguese presence in southern India had been strangled in the cradle?
Could the Zamorin manage to estabilish a kingdom of Kerala in some way?
With a less direct portuguese presence in Dravidia, what are the effects on trade and the overall economy of Portugal and India?
I had a few thoughts about this...

I don't think the samudri would create an actual kingdom with direct rule, from the little I understand about Coromandel politics, he'd be happy with an alliance dominated by him, like Italy at the same time or the Rhine confederation.
It's important for him to not get TOO bogged down in wars as it could have impact on the attractivity of the city as a trading hub. You don't want corsaires and privateers attacking your partners.

Now, what he'd probably try to do, and actually tried to, is create a sort of "Continental blocus". That does go about his principles about free trade, but his city had been bombarded twice so fuck it and fuck the firangis.
IF he can actually get that blocus going and enforced, this is pretty bad for the portuguese as they wouldn't have a resting/refuelling base after crossing the sea of Oman, at which time they were always pretty battered.
So while they could probably get some limited plunder going, they couldn't get it on the same scale as OTL.

From there, three possibilities:
  • Portuguese find a different partner like Vijayanagar, but I believe Vijayanagar would be influenced by the new League of Coromandel and possibly refuse access. The sultanates are off limit at this time for ideological reasons
  • Find another base not too far, like Ceylon, Malabar or Ormuz. It's possible but two issues. First they're out of the big trading hub, and second the muslim traders which were lobbying against them in Coromandel might well continue their lobbying in Malabar.
  • The last one is the most likely given OTL: abandon the Manueline vision of base/network building and embrace a fidalgo vision of pure plunder and privateering, like Gama and the like
 
@Tanc49 thanks for the page on this one, but I only saw this now so I shall just do a brief answer to this right now and leave the long one for tomorrow.

Well it took me a while, and I don't even have time right now to give a full answer, but I shall give my take on this.

If Dom Pacheco and his men fail to protect Cochin then the Portuguese Empire just gained a serious problem.

The plan had always been to control the spice trade and that meant that there's the need to have ports, either directly controlled or under the control of allies/vassals, on both sides of India and Western India was of vital importance to serve as a base to future operations to block the Strait of Hormuz and the Mendeb Strait, so Cochin was considered vital to the Empire until the conquest of Goa, so Zamorin's victory will be temporary.

Dom Francisco de Almeida was sent in 1505 with 22 ships and 1500 men to fortify several positions, and among those there was Cochin, so when he finds about the defeat at Cochin, things won't be pretty. Even before he lost his son Almeida was known for being rather heavy handed and he had almost 40 years of experience has a soldier from El Toro, to the brutal fights at Morocco and the Conquest of Granada, Cochin will be his first target and he will throw all he has at it, and after he recovers it, this time under the direct control of the Viceroy, he will go looking for blood and revenge for the death of the Cochin garrison.

Now this creates several problems, least among them that Almeida lacked the men to purse vengeance and to fulfill all of his orders which, overall, weakness the position of the Portuguese Empire in the Indian Ocean, but that means that there may not be a Battle of Diu as OTL, the Empire would lack the power projection that gave birth to that coalition, Gujarat wouldn't be a priority compared to Calicut, but that also means that he may not jail Albuquerque when he arrives to replace him, he may even try a compromise to combine both forces to attack the Zamorin and Albuquerque would probably support the move. How the attack would go I don't know, I don't have my books with me right now so that I can see the available resources for it, so I will leave it at this, for now, and finish tomorrow.
 
@Tanc49

The plan had always been to control the spice trade and that meant that there's the need to have ports, either directly controlled or under the control of allies/vassals, on both sides of India and Western India was of vital importance to serve as a base to future operations to block the Strait of Hormuz and the Mendeb Strait, so Cochin was considered vital to the Empire until the conquest of Goa, so Zamorin's victory will be temporary.

Dom Francisco de Almeida was sent in 1505 with 22 ships and 1500 men to fortify several positions, and among those there was Cochin, so when he finds about the defeat at Cochin, things won't be pretty. Even before he lost his son Almeida was known for being rather heavy handed and he had almost 40 years of experience has a soldier from El Toro, to the brutal fights at Morocco and the Conquest of Granada, Cochin will be his first target and he will throw all he has at it, and after he recovers it, this time under the direct control of the Viceroy, he will go looking for blood and revenge for the death of the Cochin garrison.
But could he? News of a Cochin massacre could shake the Swahili alliances in Malindi?
Would they be physically able to do anything? OTL, Portuguese crossing to India were a spent force, how much damage could they inflict?
Were there any ships still in Cochin with Pacheico that the samudri could steal and copy? We know Indian states tried that with the remains of the mameluk fleet slightly later

Now this creates several problems, least among them that Almeida lacked the men to purse vengeance and to fulfill all of his orders which, overall, weakness the position of the Portuguese Empire in the Indian Ocean, but that means that there may not be a Battle of Diu as OTL, the Empire would lack the power projection that gave birth to that coalition, Gujarat wouldn't be a priority compared to Calicut, but that also means that he may not jail Albuquerque when he arrives to replace him, he may even try a compromise to combine both forces to attack the Zamorin and Albuquerque would probably support the move. How the attack would go I don't know, I don't have my books with me right now so that I can see the available resources for it, so I will leave it at this, for now, and finish tomorrow.
Interesting about Albuquerque. But the loss of the fortress, could we see a big push for fidalgos led piracy?
That would be a very solid argument for saying fortresses and stronghold are a waste of men and money
 
I do wonder something, maybe @John7755 يوحنا can help, although I'm not sure it's his domain of predilection.

The Mamluks sent a massive fleet which had some success in Chaul and was then smashed at Diu. That cemented the blocus of the Red Sea after, which led to Ottoman dominance, and a lot of soft power (and hard power) implication in the Indian Ocean. I remember a lot of communities dedicated their prayers to the Ottoman sultan before switching to the Moghol Emperor (there's a specific name for that dedication but forgot it)

Now, if Cochin is a Portuguese defeat, might the Mamluks stay longer? Would they keep control of Djeddah, Jerusalem and Meccah? What would be the short and long term implications?
 
It took me a while but I found the damn books!

So according to "História da Expansão e do Império Português" by João Paulo Oliveira e Costa (coordinator), José Damião Rodrigues and Pedro Aires Oliveira:

Parte II said:
The nascent Empire thus had an African dimension connected to the old Mediterranean Crusade, for many of the Crowns means were channeled to the war against the Moroccan Moors, and the years of 1505 to 1515 saw a period of consecutive triumphs that managed to give the illusion that the Manueline Imperialism won in Africa.

So while they don't say how many resources were channeled into Africa, it indicates that during the 1505-1515 period the main interest of the King was Morocco and that most of the Kingdom resources were used there.

Then you have this, from "Mare Nostrum - Em Busca de Honra e Riqueza", by João Paulo Oliveira e Costa:

Capítulo 5 - A Fundação do Estado da Índia e os Desafios Europeus de D. Manuel I said:
For that reason, D. Manuel I manifested, several times, hurry to his officers to reach Malacca, to avoid that the Castilians would reach it first.

So at the same time you also have the King pushing the Indian officers to reach Malaca as fast as possible, to avoid the Castilians to reach the city first*.

Considering all of this, there's, what I consider, a clear path for the King. No Miracle at Cochin, means that the King will sideline Morocco, Malacca was more important for his plans and to get Malacca you need a stable and solidified control over Indian ports. So the resources used to wage war in Morocco will be channeled into India, I wouldn't be surprised if Manuel, like Afonso V, made a 25 years peace treaty with Morocco to be able to focos all his resources in India.

So instead of having the gradual increase of the Portuguese Forces in India, over the early 16th century, the Viceroy may end up with the resources of the 1510's-1520's, as soon as 1507.

Basically the Zamorin of Calicut better hope for a miracle of his own, because God knows that neither Almeida nor Albuquerque, the two main contenders for the post of Viceroy, would have any pity.

*The King really considered this a main fear, despite the Portuguese knowledge of the world indicating that that wouldn't happen, but I guess he really didn't want to allow any European rivals in Asia.
 
Top