WI No Miracle at Midway?

The whole point of the Battle of Midway was to deny the US of striking Japan thru Midway, right?

The Midway operation was actually a bit of a knee jerk reaction to Doolittle's raid on Tokyo. It was felt that if Midway could be taken, then any future attempts to raid the Home Islands would be detected in time to give ample warning and provide an opportunity to intercept. There is just one problem with this scenario: They would have to keep it.

Had the Japanese been able to invade and take Midway, building it up into a base capable of patroling the entire northern Pacific would have been extraordinarily difficult. It is a very long way from Japan, requiring a very long and very vulnerable supply train. It has no source of fresh water, no sources of food, and virtually no building materials. Every bean, bullet, and blanket needed to support the men on Midway had to be brought in by ship. Due to its small size, it can not support a large surface task force and can only handle maybe two squadrons of aircraft. The Combined Fleet Staff fully understood that keeping Midway adequately supplied was going to be very difficult, and I believe that they were hopelessly optimistic even with this dire assessment. They just did not have the shipping to support it, nor the warships to support the shipping even if they had it.

What do you think would have been our very first target once we had rebuilt our carrier forces? Midway would have been back in our hands by early 1944 at the latest and the Japanese would have expended a large percentage of their precious warmaking potential to take an objective that did not directly support the whole reason that they went to war to begin with, i.e. the resources of the DEI !

Dave

www.pigboats.com
 
As for butterflies, they are enormous, as already noted. Let me just mention my fave,:p which nobody has yet: pull the subs back to Hawaii & grab Japan by the throat with them. Put as much effort as you can on the maru code (Where did all those BB band members go? They'd be useful.), & get as much help from DC as possible, even if it means constant complaining; this was the single biggest factor in improving the success of the Sub Force. Put subs in the Luzon Strait, Yellow Sea, Tsushima Strait, & Bungo & Kii Suido, not all over the damn Pacific; this is the second biggest factor. Fix the damn Mark 6 exploder!! This probably requires relieving English (if he hasn't been killed in that aircraft accident yet). (If that means detailing Christie & Fife to garbage scows for the duration, I can live with it.:cool: I suppose shooting the SOBs is ASB?:mad:) Put tankers at #1 priority (which will shortly lead to immobilizing IJN & soon enough to crippling Japan's industrial production), DDs #2 (to make shooting tankers & other merchies easier). Mine the major Japanese anchorages! Monitor movements with DF, T/A, & callsign crypto, to keep IJN TFs bottled up with mining. Keep a watch on minesweepers the same way, & when the go to mined anchorages, shoot them & lay more mines. (Not that they'll do much harm to minefields in any event, but why give a sucker an even break?) This should see the war end before the end of 1943.

I actually agree with all of this, but before you get too carried away, check out this thread https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=109950

While certainly satisfying, I don't think the quote above is realistic.

Dave

www.pigboats.com
 
I actually agree with all of this, but before you get too carried away, check out this thread https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=109950

While certainly satisfying, I don't think the quote above is realistic.

I'm presuming the loss of CVs leaves Nimitz with many fewer offensive options for the immediate future, so it's not quite as unrealistic as all that. It would've taken foresight, & action, not present OTL, but none of it is impossible. It was never all done at once, or intensively, OTL, which is what I'm suggesting can happen TTL, given a different immediate outlook.

BTW, I don't need the thread. I know the maru code didn't get broken again til 1/43, nor the Mark 6 problems solved til 9/43, nor tanker priorities changed til (IIIRC) late '43, OTL...but this isn't OTL, is it?
 
@ pacifichistorian - You're flagging a dead horse. And that dead horse has been whipped to an unrecognizable pulp already by those before you - I suggest you don't ressurect any of bard32's threads. Instead, make a new one, or better still, come up with a TL...

@ DaveJ576 - That's what I said, right? Denying another chance to strike the Son of Heaven?
 
I would think the political answer to a defeat at Midway would be for the
British Pacific fleet (Formidable and Imdomitable) to be dispatched to the US Pacific Fleet. Doubtless the Guadalcanal campaign might have to be scratched and USN pride would have bruised but with help from the British fleet, the western allies would be strong enough to hold the line until Essex class carriers begin arriving in 1943. Presumably more land based assets like the P-38 would have to be sent to the Pacific in addition to the British fleet assets to defend Australia.
 
@ DaveJ576 - That's what I said, right? Denying another chance to strike the Son of Heaven?

Slamet - No flame intended. I wasn't entirely sure what you were getting at, but my intention was to expand on what you said. My wording could have been better...:eek:
 
I'm presuming the loss of CVs leaves Nimitz with many fewer offensive options for the immediate future, so it's not quite as unrealistic as all that. It would've taken foresight, & action, not present OTL, but none of it is impossible. It was never all done at once, or intensively, OTL, which is what I'm suggesting can happen TTL, given a different immediate outlook.

BTW, I don't need the thread. I know the maru code didn't get broken again til 1/43, nor the Mark 6 problems solved til 9/43, nor tanker priorities changed til (IIIRC) late '43, OTL...but this isn't OTL, is it?

Please, enough with the thread necromancy. Especially when it relates to Bard32. Look him up on this sites wiki if you want to know why people still shudder when his name is mentioned, or his threads resurrected.
 
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