alternatehistory.com

In early 20th century there was a power struggle between the Japanese civilian government and the military in which the military became increasingly powerful and independent. Military extremists assassinated the warlord of Manchuria in 1928 and blocked government attempts to discipline the officers involved. In 1930 young officers assassinated Japanese Prime Minister Osachi Hamaguchi and a year later manufactured an excuse to invade Manchuria. This was the course that led to Japan's ultimate defeat in 1945 with tens of millions of deaths in its wake.

Yet did it have to happen this way? What if the moderates were able to keep militarists at bay? What path would Asian history take instead?

I think a possible POD that may lead to this is if Japan suffer a worse outbreak of the Spanish Influenza in 1918-19. As it were Japan was able to successfully quarantine the whole country and by closing all its ports. As a result the infection rate was far lower than in Europe or neighboring countries. However a little bad luck could change everything. Unlike most outbreaks, The Flu was especially dangerous to the young. A serious outbreak would therefore sap military manpower reserves and thin out the officer ranks. The door would close on expansionist agendas forcing the country to take make more rational choices.
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