WI: No Militarist Japan

In early 20th century there was a power struggle between the Japanese civilian government and the military in which the military became increasingly powerful and independent. Military extremists assassinated the warlord of Manchuria in 1928 and blocked government attempts to discipline the officers involved. In 1930 young officers assassinated Japanese Prime Minister Osachi Hamaguchi and a year later manufactured an excuse to invade Manchuria. This was the course that led to Japan's ultimate defeat in 1945 with tens of millions of deaths in its wake.

Yet did it have to happen this way? What if the moderates were able to keep militarists at bay? What path would Asian history take instead?

I think a possible POD that may lead to this is if Japan suffer a worse outbreak of the Spanish Influenza in 1918-19. As it were Japan was able to successfully quarantine the whole country and by closing all its ports. As a result the infection rate was far lower than in Europe or neighboring countries. However a little bad luck could change everything. Unlike most outbreaks, The Flu was especially dangerous to the young. A serious outbreak would therefore sap military manpower reserves and thin out the officer ranks. The door would close on expansionist agendas forcing the country to take make more rational choices.
 
Less of a depression...or the depression striking when the Militarist-Nationalist wing was in charge, could sway things to the Democrats and save the Taisho.

The short answer is things are probably better for Japan. There's probably no invasion of China (a quagmire that even before WW2 was destroying the Japanese military and economy). There's closer economic and diplomatic ties to the western world. Manchuria remains de jura Chinese but a de facto Japanese protectorate. No Sino-Japanese war means no US embargo and no PH. Perhaps the Brit-Jap Alliance holds.

The big question is Russia. There will likely be skirmishes in Manchuria and even Mongolia. Will there be a longer war? Japan got really lucky in 1905 that the war ended when it did (the Japanese Army was depleted and overstretched and the Russians were just bringing more troops to the front). A long, all-out war in Manchuria could be devastating to Japan.
 
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