No MiG-23 I suppose leads to greater use of the Sukhoi Su-15. Perhaps the variable wing of the Su-17 bomber makes it onto an updated Su-15.
Has the MiG-23 ever shot down a western-made fighter? I’m not sure it would be missed or noticed by NATO. Soviet-era fighters in the hands of client states always seem like the Stormtroopers of their time, conspicuous and in plentiful supply but unable to hit anything.
Angolan (actually cuban) MiG-23 shot down SAAF fighters and pushed SAAF away from Angolan airspace.
Iraqui MiG-23 claimed a number of kills in the Iran Iraqui war.
The MiG-23 probably has more claimed air to air kills than any western non US built fighter other than the Mirage III in the post WW2 period. It will come down to how Iraq splits their claims btw the F1 mirage and the MiG-23 to see which type betters the sea harrier Falklands score.
The MiG-23ML had a look down shoot down radar and decent missiles. (most export versions didn't) It is a soviet analogue to the Tornado F-1. It's problem is that it took to long do develop and ended up facing F-15 and F-16 when it was designed to fight Phantoms and shoot down B-52s