WI No Mayerling Incident

abc123

Banned
We are all aware of so called Mayerling incident.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayerling_Incident

Heir of throne of Austro-Hungary Archduke Rudolf apparently commited suicide in 1889. with his mistress Maria Vechera.

But, what id he didn't do that?

BTW. What do you think did really happen that night?


( I know that the POD is pre-1900, but butterflies will mostly be after-1900 )
 

Deleted member 1487

Well, Rudolf had syphilis so he would slowly degenerate and be driven mad by the illness. Not a good result. This is why he killed himself. Had he not died then, it would have been some other time, probably by his own hand, perhaps more publicly. It would be bad for the monarchy, that's for sure. It may prevent FF from getting the throne though, especially if he marries before he is designated heir. FJ might just pass him over in favor of Karl. With Karl as designated heir than there would be much less pressure to kill him, as he wasn't a reformer at all and WW1 might have been averted. I don't buy into the inevitability of the war, so without the assassination as a spark the war is pushed back and Germany by 1916 had declared the Schlieffen plan (Moltke plan if you really want to be accurate) infeasible, so they won't press for war after that point. That means if other sparks happen, Germany won't be eager for war and will try and negotiate to prevent it.
 
Source for that?
:confused:

For example this one: http://hubpages.com/hub/The-Incident-at-Mayerling
It has also been mentioned in an TV2 / arte-tv documentary aired in 2009.
This documentary is mentioned here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Rudolf,_Crown_Prince_of_Austria

Rudolf was not only suffering from syphilis himself, but had also infected his wife Princess Stephanie of Belgium with this or another venereal disease, that had made her infertile. Since they had only a daughter before this incident, the line of succession would not have changed even if Rudolf had not commited suicide in 1889. Due to his poor state of health and his rather unhealthy lifestyle, Rudolf would definately not have outlived his father.
 
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abc123

Banned
For example this one: http://hubpages.com/hub/The-Incident-at-Mayerling
It has also been mentioned in an TV2 / arte-tv documentary aired in 2009.
This documentary is mentioned here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Rudolf,_Crown_Prince_of_Austria

Rudolf was not only suffering from syphilis himself, but had also infected his wife Princess Stephanie of Belgium with this or another venereal disease, that had made her infertile. Since they had only a daughter before this incident, the line of succession would not have changed even if Rudolf had not commited suicide in 1889. Due to his poor state of health and his rather unhealthy lifestyle, Rudolf would definately not have outlived his father.

I'm still not quite convinced, all of that are just a rumors and opinions, little evidence...
;)
 
I'm still not quite convinced, all of that are just a rumors and opinions, little evidence...
;)

It will be hard to find real evidence. The Habsburgs have done their best to keep everything about the Mayerling incident secret from the very beginning and revealed the truth only as far as it was absolutely inevitable, e.g. they at first claimed that Rudolf had died from a stroke and when the photos of his burial clearly showed his bandaged head, the story was changed to an accident with a hunting weapon. To gain clear evidence that Rudolf did indeed suffer from syphilis, there would have to be an autopsy of his corpse, something the Habsburg family council will never allow.
 

abc123

Banned
It will be hard to find real evidence. The Habsburgs have done their best to keep everything about the Mayerling incident secret from the very beginning and revealed the truth only as far as it was absolutely inevitable, e.g. they at first claimed that Rudolf had died from a stroke and when the photos of his burial clearly showed his bandaged head, the story was changed to an accident with a hunting weapon. To gain clear evidence that Rudolf did indeed suffer from syphilis, there would have to be an autopsy of his corpse, something the Habsburg family council will never allow.

We'll never probably know what really happend there, but what intrigues me is a fact that security of the castle was practicly nonexistant.
There wer just a few servants and that's all.
 
We'll never probably know what really happend there, but what intrigues me is a fact that security of the castle was practicly nonexistant.
There wer just a few servants and that's all.

Well, it always strikes us, the post 9/11-generation, used to having to walk through metal detectors and have our bags and sometimes even our shoes X-rayed whenever entering places such as our public library, town hall or even the office building we work in every day, as odd, how lax security measures were back in the 19th and even early 20th century, just like e.g. the White House during the American Civil War, where anyone could walk in and out as he or she plaesed without being searched for weapons.
 

abc123

Banned
Well, it always strikes us, the post 9/11-generation, used to having to walk through metal detectors and have our bags and sometimes even our shoes X-rayed whenever entering places such as our public library, town hall or even the office building we work in every day, as odd, how lax security measures were back in the 19th and even early 20th century, just like e.g. the White House during the American Civil War, where anyone could walk in and out as he or she plaesed without being searched for weapons.

OK, but I was thinking that security measures in continental Europe were stronger than in USA or Britain. After all, he was second man in Austria- Hungary.
At least 2-3 secret policeman should be there...
 
If Rudolf lives, his mother Empress Elisabeth ("Sissi") probably does as well. It was the blow of her son's death, though I understand they were on somewhat strained terms, that chased her out of Vienna more or less for good (except for occasional visits back) and set her on her peregrinations around Europe over the last decade of her life (ironically, she was beginning a return journey to Vienna when she was assassinated in Geneva in September of 1898). With Rudolf alive, she will probably spend a lot more time in the capital, though she'll still do a lot of wandering around the continent, though not to the obsessive degree of OTL.

The status of Franz Ferdinand is also interesting. If Rudolf is still alive and in reasonably good health if and when FF meets Sophie Chotek (I think he still would; I believe Sophie was already working as a lady-in-waiting for Archduchess Isabella at the time of Mayerling OTL - she would have been 20/21 then), then there won't be quite so much pressure on FF to forswear her in favor of a lady with a suitable (Habsburg) bloodline. In that case, the previous speculation is probably right that when Rudolf does die, Franz Josef goes to the next-in-line, Karl. This might mean that Karl and Zita (or whomever Karl marries if he doesn't meet Zita) could become the targets/victims of the Black Hand or other violent radicals. Assuming, of course, that the situation in Serbia develops precisely as it did OTL; the butterflies might have spread far enough by 1905 that King Alexander and Queen Draga (if the two even marry) might survive the coup attempt of that year and "Apis" might end up in front of a bullet-pockmarked wall instead.
 

abc123

Banned
If Rudolf lives, his mother Empress Elisabeth ("Sissi") probably does as well. It was the blow of her son's death, though I understand they were on somewhat strained terms, that chased her out of Vienna more or less for good (except for occasional visits back) and set her on her peregrinations around Europe over the last decade of her life (ironically, she was beginning a return journey to Vienna when she was assassinated in Geneva in September of 1898). With Rudolf alive, she will probably spend a lot more time in the capital, though she'll still do a lot of wandering around the continent, though not to the obsessive degree of OTL.

The status of Franz Ferdinand is also interesting. If Rudolf is still alive and in reasonably good health if and when FF meets Sophie Chotek (I think he still would; I believe Sophie was already working as a lady-in-waiting for Archduchess Isabella at the time of Mayerling OTL - she would have been 20/21 then), then there won't be quite so much pressure on FF to forswear her in favor of a lady with a suitable (Habsburg) bloodline. In that case, the previous speculation is probably right that when Rudolf does die, Franz Josef goes to the next-in-line, Karl. This might mean that Karl and Zita (or whomever Karl marries if he doesn't meet Zita) could become the targets/victims of the Black Hand or other violent radicals. Assuming, of course, that the situation in Serbia develops precisely as it did OTL; the butterflies might have spread far enough by 1905 that King Alexander and Queen Draga (if the two even marry) might survive the coup attempt of that year and "Apis" might end up in front of a bullet-pockmarked wall instead.

Will we see a update in the "A Knee in the wrong place"?
 
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