WI: No May Coup, Serbia in Central Powers, Neutral Bulgaria

BigBlueBox

Banned
So let's say the following events take place:
  1. No May Coup, so the Austria-friendly House of Obrenovic stays in power
  2. Austria rewards Serbia's loyalty by giving them part of Bosnia, thus strengthening the domestic credibility of King Alexander Obrenovic
  3. Balkan War still happens, but Bulgaria gets enough of Macedonia to be satisfied, so there is no Second Balkan War
  4. Some event happens in 1914 to a Great War similar to OTL, but with Serbia in the Central Powers and Bulgaria neutral
How does this war turn out?
 
Was surviving Obrenovic even possible? Last Obrenovic king was quiet unpopular so even if no May Coup, his reign might still meet violent end.
 
Assuming the same coalitions at the outset: Not having to divert 300,000 men to the Serbian front would greatly strengthen the Austrians. They are likely to still lose in the opening round but they should be able to save Przemsyl. This could prove critical as the fall of that fortress is what got Italy to joint he war. Italian participation begins shortly after Gorlice-Tarnow starts. Now if you delay Italian entry by a couple of weeks, that offensive is going to start looking pretty powerful. The Italians are unlikely to join the war which would be fatal to the Entente

THis should be cautioned with the understanding that a large part of the ustrian military expansion is due to the growing menace of Serbia so Austria would spend even less on its military. That might lead to less Russian spending as well canceling the effect

Bulgarian neutrality wouldn't matter as the Bulgarians only fought the Serbs, Greeks and Romanians all of whom will be neutral or, in Romania's case may switch sides and join the CP

I'm not sure how realistic these changes are:

First, King Alexander had been drawing closer to Russia- Nicholas is t he best man by proxy at the wedding for example. Also, Austria's whole Balkan policy was against the expansion of the Balkan states especially Serbia. Austria might tolerate Serbia's growing strength but would never be pleased with it. The idea that a power could just give away territory is rather hard to believe either. Finally, given the realities of Balkan rivalries, its hard to see an arrangement that is satisfactory for all
 

BooNZ

Banned
So let's say the following events take place:
...
The Balkan League was the outcome of concerted Russian diplomacy with the intent to undermine the A-H and Ottoman positions - No Russian influence over Serbia, no Balkan League, no Balkan war...
 
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