WI: No Marry Thou Happy Austria

This saying is attributed to Matthias Corvinus with regards to the Habsburg marriages that brought that family Spain and in the preceding generation, Burgundy and an attempt at Brittany.

But say Marie of Burgundy has a brother, or her younger son survives and Burgundy is carved off the Habsburg bloc, while Juan of Aragon, prince of the Asturias leaves surviving issue. In other words, no Hasburg-Spain, and perhaps no Habsburg-Burgundy or at least if it is, it's under a cadet branch. How might Spain and Burgundy develop with no Habsburg rule? The same? Differently?
 
This saying is attributed to Matthias Corvinus with regards to the Habsburg marriages that brought that family Spain and in the preceding generation, Burgundy and an attempt at Brittany.

But say Marie of Burgundy has a brother, or her younger son survives and Burgundy is carved off the Habsburg bloc, while Juan of Aragon, prince of the Asturias leaves surviving issue. In other words, no Hasburg-Spain, and perhaps no Habsburg-Burgundy or at least if it is, it's under a cadet branch. How might Spain and Burgundy develop with no Habsburg rule? The same? Differently?
First of all, no Habsburg Spain means they maintain the usual Spanish focus and maybe push the Moroccans back into their own land.
Second, no Austrian nor Spanish Burgundy can be very interesting.
If it's a Valois Burgundy, then unless the new Duke pays homage to Louis XI they will lose Flanders, Picardy, the Duchy of Burgundy and Vermandois to French justice.
If it's a Habsburg independent Burgundy, it might stabilise it a bit, but not much. There is still France to the South which wants their lands.
 
Out of interest, running this question in tandem with my other thread.

How might the existence of a cadet line in Burgundy - whether from a son for Charles the Bold or Mary's younger son Franz surviving - affect things? Particularly, if by some happy accident, he ends up married (to who?) and leaving issue. I thought of Anne, duchess of Brittany, but I'm not sure how to allow that marriage without it turning into a France-screw (since most likely, Charles VIII invades Brittany to force his marriage to Anne as OTL) if she marries a Habsburg archduke, since the Habsburgs were sorta preoccupied with Hungary at the time.
 
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