OK, this may be unlikely, but what if the Luftwaffe was never formed?
IIRC, independent air forces were relatively rare in the 1930's - most were parts of the relevant Navy and Army. So let us assume that instead of an independent Luftwaffe, the Heer and the Kriegsmarine both have their own air forces?
In some ways, this will increase efficiency. An air force under the direct control of the Kriegsmarine will almost certainly develop a proper 4-engine maritime patrol/strike aircraft, probably similar to the Dornier 19 or Junkers 89. Guided missiles similar to the Fritz X may appear sooner than OTL, though I don't know how soon.
The Heer will probably have an air branch based around ground support - the Ju 87 will almost certainly appear, along with the Me 109. Some medium bomber designs will appear, although the Ju 88 may be forced into a dive bombing role as in OTL.
I suspect that strategic bombers will not appear - although the Heer may well let the Kriegsmarine do the development work and then modify them as bombers later! I think that, at least in part, the attraction of strategic bombing was that it would allow the air force to win a war on it's own, and the Heer wouldn't be so interested. That said, the USAAF was a big strategic bombing force, so that's uncertain.
The structure of Nazi Germany will probably hurt development. With the Heer and Kriegsmarine now in direct opposition over aircraft, I could see the Heer might well get aircraft from Junkers and Messerschmidt, and the Kriegsmarine from Focke-Wulf and Dornier! No co-operation on engine development either, and separate aircrew training schemes as well.
There might well be a geographical separation of air defence as well - the Kreigsmarine covers the coasts and the Heer takes over inland. If they insist on separate control rooms it will get even more confused . . .
Goring would have to be removed for this to work, I'm not sure about Milch, Wever et al.
Thoughts?