WI: No Lombard invasion of Italy?

Pretty much what it says in the title.

What if the Lombards don't invade invade Italy?

What if they get conquered by the Avars?

or

What if they migrate into Dalmatia and the western portion of the Balkan peninsula like the Slavs did in OTL?
 
What if the Lombards don't invade invade Italy?
The Byzantines would be likely in charge more longer, but they would be still in crisis, and anyone with a bit of ambition would use it.

The most likely candidates :

1)Franks. They already raided Ostrogothia and Byzantine Italy, in the north. They know the country and they would be able to take the north.

It would have very interesting consequences, with Franks having since the beggining mediterranean strong bases, they could manage to put an hand on the western mediteranean trade and to control all the way between Italy and Frisia.

If the Arabo-Islamic conquest still happen, they would maybe be more strong and able to resist naval raids. At the end, Francia could look a bit more like Byzantium.

2)Arabo-Muslims. While we're talking of that.

If the largest part of italy is still under the Byzantine more or less declining control, they could be more interested in conquering Italy rather than Spain.

Critically if they fail to conquer the Berbers at the contrary of OTL, conquering Sicily and then southern Italy is really doable.

3)Exarchate. Ok, a bit of cheating, but it's not unlikely that an ambitious exarch would take opportunity of the problems of Byzantium to just take over Italy for himself. With the possibility to make the pope "his" patriarch and managing to create something bastard between OTL Ostrogothia and Byzantium.

These 3 possibilities aren't even excluding each other.

What if they get conquered by the Avars?
1)More tardive and less formation of Slavic peoples. According to Peary, the crisis of Avar Khanate allowed the slaves they were in their domination and at their periphery to take opportunity to free themselves. By making that, they would have began the processes of "national" formation.

Without Avar to gather slavs, you probably wouldn't have Croats, Slovaks, Slovenians. Slavic minorities, maybe, but mixed with germans and the old roman background.

2)Probably earlier christianisation of Pannonia.

3)Avars became christianised quickly, and abandon as well their more distinctive customs. After 2 generations, "Avar" is not for ethnic people but only for naming the ruling elite whatever from barbaric or roman origin.

What if they migrate into Dalmatia and the western portion of the Balkan peninsula like the Slavs did in OTL?
The problem is the Slavs did it because they're fleeing Avaria.

All depends of the date. If it's before 600, they settle Dalmatia, christianize themselves and you'll have a Bulgaria-equivalent instead of Yugoslavia (to resume, a slavic country named Avaria).
If it's after 600, it's incredibly more hard. Not only they would have a strong resistance from slavs, but they would have been more vulnerable to frankish and byzantine attacks.
 
The Byzantines would be likely in charge more longer, but they would be still in crisis, and anyone with a bit of ambition would use it.

The most likely candidates :

1)Franks. They already raided Ostrogothia and Byzantine Italy, in the north. They know the country and they would be able to take the north.

It would have very interesting consequences, with Franks having since the beggining mediterranean strong bases, they could manage to put an hand on the western mediteranean trade and to control all the way between Italy and Frisia.

If the Arabo-Islamic conquest still happen, they would maybe be more strong and able to resist naval raids. At the end, Francia could look a bit more like Byzantium.

2)Arabo-Muslims. While we're talking of that.

If the largest part of italy is still under the Byzantine more or less declining control, they could be more interested in conquering Italy rather than Spain.

Critically if they fail to conquer the Berbers at the contrary of OTL, conquering Sicily and then southern Italy is really doable.

3)Exarchate. Ok, a bit of cheating, but it's not unlikely that an ambitious exarch would take opportunity of the problems of Byzantium to just take over Italy for himself. With the possibility to make the pope "his" patriarch and managing to create something bastard between OTL Ostrogothia and Byzantium.

These 3 possibilities aren't even excluding each other.

Would the Caliphate be interested in the city of Rome? If what would be the impact on Italy if the Caliphate and Francia were warring over control of the peninsula? What would be the role of the Pope in a situation where the Franks conquer Northern Italy and the Caliphate conquers the southern portion of the peninsula?
 
Would the Caliphate be interested in the city of Rome?
Plunder, capturing an important city at the eyes of Christians, and also securing their grasp on central Mediterranea for both strategic and trading.
Of course, they already plundered the city OTL, during the end of Carolingian era.

If what would be the impact on Italy if the Caliphate and Francia were warring over control of the peninsula?
Probably a north/south line, more or less the today's one.
North Italy would be even more francised than OTL, while the south would be comparable to (if the conquest is lasting two centuries) Al-Andalus.

What would be the role of the Pope in a situation where the Franks conquer Northern Italy and the Caliphate conquers the southern portion of the peninsula?

Before Pépin III, the Pope didn't had this authority that he had and still have. The churches were more "national" with a king at their head. Probably the bishopry of Rome would be abandoned to the Saracens, and that the Patriarch of West would be relocated to Ravenna.

Maybe you would have ultimatly the creation of others Patriarchates elsewhere, in imitation of Byzantium : Hispania, Francia, Aquitania. I mean, yes OTL you had already these ones, but with real autonomy here.
 
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Vitruvius

Donor
3)Exarchate. Ok, a bit of cheating, but it's not unlikely that an ambitious exarch would take opportunity of the problems of Byzantium to just take over Italy for himself. With the possibility to make the pope "his" patriarch and managing to create something bastard between OTL Ostrogothia and Byzantium.

But the Exarchates were established after the Lombard invasion of Italy. Without the Lombards conquering a large portion of the peninsula and threatening Byzantine control would Maurice still invest the governor of Italy with the powers of the Exarch? That's a lot of power for one person, compare the Exarch of Ravenna, holding a strip of land from Ravenna to Rome and tenuous control of coastal cities like Naples and Venice, to an Exarch holding all of Italy.

I think its worth considering what Byzantine Italy would look like if it persisted through the end of the 7th century. The Arabs didn't reach Carthage until 698. The Franks didn't intervene in Italy until the 8th century. Would it be used by Maurice to try to buttress the Byzantine position in the Balkans? Would Byzantine Italy last long enough to be included in the Theme system?
 
But the Exarchates were established after the Lombard invasion of Italy.
I assumed the creation of an exarchate in case of Frankish invasion. I think the context would be likely similar, at least enough to have it created ATL?

I think its worth considering what Byzantine Italy would look like if it persisted through the end of the 7th century. The Arabs didn't reach Carthage until 698. The Franks didn't intervene in Italy until the 8th century.
I'm sorry, but they clearly intervened in Italy earlier. During the Gothic Wars by exemple.

Would it be used by Maurice to try to buttress the Byzantine position in the Balkans? Would Byzantine Italy last long enough to be included in the Theme system?
The problem is that Italy is simply too far from biggest threats to Empire. By pot luck : Arabs, Persians, Avars. It's not really vital to the ERE as well, it's a good marche and allow to preserve byzantine interest in Mediterannea, but the empire could do that with the southern Italy as well.

As I think that, if the Lombard don't do it, others would (critically, because you would have more wealth to plunder without a Lombard invasion), even if it can be held for...let's say 50/75 years, eventually someone would just use the problems of Byzantium to create itself a pretty kingdom in Italy.

For the themes...Well, as you had Italian themes OTL, I don't see why you wouldn't have particularly ITTL.
 
The creation of an exarchate is the most likely solution. As a matter of fact, there might be even two or three exarchates: Northern Italy (with a capital at Ravenna), Italy proper (probably with a capital at Florence or Rome) and Sicily. The advantage for the emperor would be that no one would be invested with power over the whole of Italy, the disadvantage would be a lesser degree of coordination and a higher probability of intrigue.

The border with the Frankish kingdoms was quiet enough in the second half of the 6th century and for all of the 7th, AFAIK. The eastern border can be much more complicated to handle: in the end, it depends on the reason for which the Lobards have not invaded Italy. If this did not happen because they were settled as socii in the Noricum, the border becomes much safer.

Anyway, even if there is no Lombard invasion, Italy is still very badly hit by the Gothic wars and the Justinian plague. It will take a few decades to recover, but maybe by the early to middle 7th century they should be in a better position.

At this point the question is what is going to happen in Italy: will the exarch/exarchs remain loyal or will a rebellious exarch raise his flag against the ERE? If there is a rebellion, the exarch might either go for the purple in Constantinople or try to revive the WRE, and he may or may not be successful in either. Not to mention that there is going to be the attack on Carthage at the end of the 7th century and the siege of Constantinople soon after that. There are a lot of butterfly which may come up and change the historical outcome: IMHO the period from the 6th to the 8th century is very fluid, and a major POD like the no-invasion of Italy would have certainly a big impact
 
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