WI: No Lewinsky Scandal

What would Clinton be remembered for today? How would Democrats perform in the 1998 midterms? Would Gingrich keep his job? What would the 2000 election look like?
 
It's arguable that Monica Lewinsky, unintentionally of course, prevented the partial privatization of Social Security! For confirmation that Clinton and Gingrich were on the verge of a Social Security "compromise" involving private accounts, see http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/05/29/the-pact-between-bill-clinton-and-newt-gingrich

Whether it would have passed is another matter: Social Security is a lot more popular than welfare, and I think Clinton would have faced a massive revolt in his party, no matter how much he tried to label it "saving" Social Security.

Apart from that, I think the Democrats might have done a little worse in the 1998 midterms. (I wouldn't expect them to lose many seats in the House because the most vulnerable were lost in 1994 and for the most part not recovered in 1996. But I doubt that they would actually *gain* seats as in OTL.) OTOH, Gore might well have won in 2000. By that time, the unpopularity of the GOP's impeachment effort had largely faded from memory, but people did remember Clinton's own behavior, and while his job approval ratings were high, his personal approval was much lower. This made Bush's appeal to "change the tone" of Washington DC and to restore "honor and dignity" have some plausibility. I don't say Gore lost many votes on this issue. But of course given the extreme closeness of the election, it didn't need to cost him many...

Another point is that without Monicagate, Gore is unlikely to choose Lieberman as his running mate. The main reason for choosing Lieberman was that he was a moralist, had condemned Clinton's behavior, etc.
 
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It's arguable that Monica Lewinsky, unintentionally of course, prevented the partial privatization of Social Security! For confirmation that Clinton and Gingrich were on the verge of a Social Security "compromise" involving private accounts, see http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/05/29/the-pact-between-bill-clinton-and-newt-gingrich

Whether it would have passed is another matter: Social Security is a lot more popular than welfare, and I think Clinton would have faced a massive revolt in his party, no matter how much he tried to label it "saving" Social Security.

Apart from that, I think the Democrats might have done a little worse in the 1998 midterms. (I wouldn't expect them to lose many seats in the House because the most vulnerable were lost in 1994 and for the most part not recovered in 1996. But I doubt that they would actually *gain* seats as in OTL.) OTOH, Gore might well have won in 2000. By that time, the unpopularity of the GOP's impeachment effort had largely faded from memory, but people did remember Clinton's own behavior, and while his job approval ratings were high, his personal approval was much lower. This made Bush's appeal to "change the tone" of Washington DC and to restore "honor and dignity" have some plausibility. I don't say Gore lost many votes on this issue. But of course given the extreme closeness of the election, it didn't need to cost him many...

Another point is that without Monicagate, Gore is unlikely to choose Lieberman as his running mate. The main reason for choosing Lieberman was that he was a moralist, had condemned Clinton's behavior, etc.
Do you think Gingrich would run in 2000?
 

Deleted member 9338

If it wasn't Monica there would have been someone else
 
Saddam took advantage of the time to boot the weapons inspectors for the next four years with only a token US response and that caused the US government at the time to become convinced he was reconstituting his weapons.

The new status quo where Iraq no longer considered the No Fly Zone valid and would no longer tolerate the terms of the Gulf War cease fire put the US on a trajectory for another war with Iraq no matter who won in 2000.

A not hobbled Clinton would have had more leeway to try to avoid this from happening.
 
Without the whole Lewinsky scandal and impeachment what would relations between the two parties and general tone of Washington possibly be like?
 
Without the whole Lewinsky scandal and impeachment what would relations between the two parties and general tone of Washington possibly be like?
Relations between the two parties and the general tone of Washington has been hyper-partisan and hateful since Gingrich became Speaker.
 
If it wasn't Monica there would have been someone else

I wouldn't say it was inevitable. He cheated a ton, continued doing so long after the scandal, and only got caught once in a significant way with Monica and Gennifer Flowers.
 

What did a lot more damage than the actual "morals" aspect was that it convinced Gore it wouldn't be a good idea to use Clinton to campaign for him in Arakansas, Tennessee, and other key states. If Clinton had been able to do that, that would have massively boosted Gore's chances. Might have even been hard for him to lose, which is amazing given what a terrible campaigner he was.
 
Easiest way to do this have SCOTUS reverse 8th Cir.'s desision and uphold Judge Wright's in Clinton v Jones, kicking the sexual harrassment suit until after he leaves office. No suit, no purjury, no Lewinsky scandal.
 
Relations between the two parties and the general tone of Washington has been hyper-partisan and hateful since Gingrich became Speaker.
And yet as David T linked to Clinton and Gingrich were quietly working together to carry out the part privatisation of Social Security, that would seem to suggest that things weren't completely irreparable. Granted that's just the two of them but if the Lewinsky scandal had never occurred to sink relations down another level and the reform been passed would it not potentially help set a slightly better tone? As a non-American I have no real idea.
 
And yet as David T linked to Clinton and Gingrich were quietly working together to carry out the part privatisation of Social Security, that would seem to suggest that things weren't completely irreparable. Granted that's just the two of them but if the Lewinsky scandal had never occurred to sink relations down another level and the reform been passed would it not potentially help set a slightly better tone? As a non-American I have no real idea.
Keep in mind that Gingrich often held Clinton hostage. For example, Gingrich used the threat of obstruction and government shutdowns to force Clinton to cut Welfare.
 
Keep in mind that Gingrich often held Clinton hostage. For example, Gingrich used the threat of obstruction and government shutdowns to force Clinton to cut Welfare.
Yep, it was really hard to convince Bill "end welfare as we have come to know it" Clinton...
 
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No Government shutdown in '95 might do the trick as, IRC, the whole affair with Lewinsky started during that shutdown. However, no shutdown could make Bill weaker going into the '96 election (though I still think he'd win, just by a lower margin).
 
Yep, it was really hard to convince Bill"end welfare as we have come to know it" Clinton...
Clinton wanted welfare reform in some capacity, however nobody knew what it would look like. The welfare bill that Gingrich forced on him was more conservative than Clinton would have liked. He called it, "A decent welfare bill wrapped in a sack of shit," but he didn't have a lot of room to maneuver after 1994.
 
Clinton wanted welfare reform in some capacity, however nobody knew what it would look like. The welfare bill that Gingrich forced on him was more conservative than Clinton would have liked. He called it, "A decent welfare bill wrapped in a sack of shit," but he didn't have a lot of room to maneuver after 1994.
He happily signed it, fulfilling his campaign promise, and saying "(it) gives us a chance we haven't had before to break the cycle of dependency that has existed for millions and millions of our fellow citizens, exiling them from the world of work. It gives structure, meaning and dignity to most of our lives".
 
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