Do you think Gingrich would run in 2000?It's arguable that Monica Lewinsky, unintentionally of course, prevented the partial privatization of Social Security! For confirmation that Clinton and Gingrich were on the verge of a Social Security "compromise" involving private accounts, see http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/05/29/the-pact-between-bill-clinton-and-newt-gingrich
Whether it would have passed is another matter: Social Security is a lot more popular than welfare, and I think Clinton would have faced a massive revolt in his party, no matter how much he tried to label it "saving" Social Security.
Apart from that, I think the Democrats might have done a little worse in the 1998 midterms. (I wouldn't expect them to lose many seats in the House because the most vulnerable were lost in 1994 and for the most part not recovered in 1996. But I doubt that they would actually *gain* seats as in OTL.) OTOH, Gore might well have won in 2000. By that time, the unpopularity of the GOP's impeachment effort had largely faded from memory, but people did remember Clinton's own behavior, and while his job approval ratings were high, his personal approval was much lower. This made Bush's appeal to "change the tone" of Washington DC and to restore "honor and dignity" have some plausibility. I don't say Gore lost many votes on this issue. But of course given the extreme closeness of the election, it didn't need to cost him many...
Another point is that without Monicagate, Gore is unlikely to choose Lieberman as his running mate. The main reason for choosing Lieberman was that he was a moralist, had condemned Clinton's behavior, etc.
Do you think Gingrich would run in 2000?
Relations between the two parties and the general tone of Washington has been hyper-partisan and hateful since Gingrich became Speaker.Without the whole Lewinsky scandal and impeachment what would relations between the two parties and general tone of Washington possibly be like?
If it wasn't Monica there would have been someone else
*snip*
And yet as David T linked to Clinton and Gingrich were quietly working together to carry out the part privatisation of Social Security, that would seem to suggest that things weren't completely irreparable. Granted that's just the two of them but if the Lewinsky scandal had never occurred to sink relations down another level and the reform been passed would it not potentially help set a slightly better tone? As a non-American I have no real idea.Relations between the two parties and the general tone of Washington has been hyper-partisan and hateful since Gingrich became Speaker.
Keep in mind that Gingrich often held Clinton hostage. For example, Gingrich used the threat of obstruction and government shutdowns to force Clinton to cut Welfare.And yet as David T linked to Clinton and Gingrich were quietly working together to carry out the part privatisation of Social Security, that would seem to suggest that things weren't completely irreparable. Granted that's just the two of them but if the Lewinsky scandal had never occurred to sink relations down another level and the reform been passed would it not potentially help set a slightly better tone? As a non-American I have no real idea.
Yep, it was really hard to convince Bill "end welfare as we have come to know it" Clinton...Keep in mind that Gingrich often held Clinton hostage. For example, Gingrich used the threat of obstruction and government shutdowns to force Clinton to cut Welfare.
Clinton wanted welfare reform in some capacity, however nobody knew what it would look like. The welfare bill that Gingrich forced on him was more conservative than Clinton would have liked. He called it, "A decent welfare bill wrapped in a sack of shit," but he didn't have a lot of room to maneuver after 1994.Yep, it was really hard to convince Bill"end welfare as we have come to know it" Clinton...
He happily signed it, fulfilling his campaign promise, and saying "(it) gives us a chance we haven't had before to break the cycle of dependency that has existed for millions and millions of our fellow citizens, exiling them from the world of work. It gives structure, meaning and dignity to most of our lives".Clinton wanted welfare reform in some capacity, however nobody knew what it would look like. The welfare bill that Gingrich forced on him was more conservative than Clinton would have liked. He called it, "A decent welfare bill wrapped in a sack of shit," but he didn't have a lot of room to maneuver after 1994.