WI: No Lewinski Affair

Perkeo

Banned
Not much change, since he stayed a fairly popular and successful president, didn't he? Did the affair have any impact on American political culture?

Can he get impeached on Jones v. Clinton? To me that charge seems more suitable to support the claim that he's criminal, albeit harder to proof.
 
Well, first off, no BJs from Lewinski.

Which might mean no impeachment, if there are no other office dalliances for Ken Starr to chase around on his fishing trip. (mixed metaphor, sorry)

Which MIGHT mean that Gore wins in 2000, if residual disgust about Clinton/Lewinski really was any sort of a factor.

And I wonder how much effect Trump's trotting out Juanita Broadrick had in neutralizing the Democrats attacks on him as a misogynist last year. These could be some far-flying butterlies.
 
There are claims Gore picked Lieberman in part because Lieberman was one of the first Democrats to denounce Clinton for the Lewinski scandal. If Gore instead ended up with, say, Bob Graham, that could swing things the other way in 2000.
 
I think the 1998 midterms and the 2000 election TTL are reverse of OTL. The GOP gains in '98 and Gore wins in 2000.
 
Okay, so, I think that he wouldn't have been impeached, of course, and as others have said, Gore wins the 2000 election. There is no George W. Bush, and with Bush not being elected, he could've ran in 2008. Therefore, Bush could've been the 44th president instead of Obama, thus, also possibly resulting in a different outcome in the 2016 election.
 
Okay, so, I think that he wouldn't have been impeached, of course, and as others have said, Gore wins the 2000 election. There is no George W. Bush, and with Bush not being elected, he could've ran in 2008. Therefore, Bush could've been the 44th president instead of Obama, thus, also possibly resulting in a different outcome in the 2016 election.
This assumes Gore is re elected, in which case #44 is elected in 2004 instead.
 
Okay, so, I think that he wouldn't have been impeached, of course, and as others have said, Gore wins the 2000 election. There is no George W. Bush, and with Bush not being elected, he could've ran in 2008. Therefore, Bush could've been the 44th president instead of Obama, thus, also possibly resulting in a different outcome in the 2016 election.
You think Bush would run again after getting nominated and loosing the general or are you saying that he wouldn't run in 2000?
 
You think Bush would run again after getting nominated and loosing the general or are you saying that he wouldn't run in 2000?
I'm saying he may have ran again, assuming he lost the 2000 election. But then again, he may have accepted defeat and not have been the 2nd Bush in the White House.
 

Gaius Julius Magnus

Gone Fishin'
Clinton and Gingrich were apparently planning some bipartisan Social Security reform that was dropped when the Lewinski scandal broke, so there might be a plan to push for that to go ahead.
 

thorr97

Banned
Well, as Bill Clinton keeps telling anyone who will listen, if it weren't for the Lewinsky fracas being such a distraction he'd have ordered a renewal of the war against Iraq. This, for its obstruction and hindering of the UN Arms Inspectors.

So, now Lewinsky Affair means Operation Iraqi Freedom gets kicked off four years (or so) earlier than in OTL.

I'd wager that 9/11 would still happen - but take place years earlier as well.
 
The left wing journalist Alexander Cockburn always maintained that Monica Lewinsky inadvertently saved social security, by preventing Gingrich and Clinton from giving it the same treatment they gave welfare reform. You can put as much weight on this opinion as it will bear.
 

Towelie

Banned
I'm saying he may have ran again, assuming he lost the 2000 election. But then again, he may have accepted defeat and not have been the 2nd Bush in the White House.
Bush was extremely popular in Texas and easily could have been governor for 3 terms (I think they allow it in Texas), and generally did a good job too. That would have kept him busy until 2006, I believe.

I expect that the financial crisis would have happened regardless of who was in the White House because the roots of it went all the way back to Ford and Carter with the mortgage reforms, and that global oil prices would have been maybe not as high without Iraq (which, with Lieberman as VP, might have happened anyways) but still high because of what was happening with Iran in the mid to late 2000s.

But is Bush the right candidate for that kind of period? This is a guy who won the election in 2000 because he made a philosophical case against surpluses; he was a fiscal Conservative, not a fiscal conservative. He said things like that government should not be balancing the budget on the backs of the poor. He'd probably have a lot to take aim at with Gore's environmentalist policies (and environmentalism is VERY unpopular during recessions, especially for rural voters; we might see Trump 2016 type margins in rural America), but really, Bush was a guy who believed in his core in the ownership society, a concept that the mortgage crisis made irrelevant. I don't think he would be the right candidate for '08, nor do I believe that he would be the kind to win a Republican Primary in 2008, especially considering that the base would be absolutely fucking furious that the Democrats had control for 16 years, and Bush wasn't really a guy who could do furious politics. The 2000 Primary was a coronation for him that he almost blew because he wasn't a firebreathing Clinton hater and the Conservative base was skeptical of him because of his last name.
 
(1) The GOP does a *little* better in 1998. Not *much* better, because the most vulnerable Democratic seats were already lost in 1994 (and not many regained in 1996) but I don't expect the GOP to actually *lose* House seats as it did in OTL.

(2) I do think Monicagate did marginally hurt Gore in 2000. Once the Senate failed to remove Clinton, public anger with the GOP on impeachment faded, while disapproval of Clinton's own conduct remained. True, he got high job performance ratings in the polls, but personal disapproval remained high. This helped make Bush's appeal to "change the tone in Washington, "restore honor and dignity," etc. more attractive. I don't say that Monicagate won Bush many votes, but it didn't have to win him many.

In addition, as already noted in this thread, Monicagate may be why Gore chose Lieberman as his running mate, whereas for example Bob Graham might have been more useful for carrying Florida. And even apart from that, I don't think Lieberman was a very strong candidate--it takes something special to lose a debate to Dick Cheney by 19 points! http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=122760 Besides, a Gore-Shaheen ticket could have won NH and therefore the election even without Florida. Even two of the most extreme advocates of the argument that VP choices have little home-state effect writes that "According to estimates from our election forecasting models, a counterfactual Gore-Shaheen ticket would have won the small state of New Hampshire by at least 1 percentage point. Assuming that national political dynamics remained the same, Gore would have secured a majority of Electoral College votes, regardless of the outcome in Florida. The 2000 presidential election is the only election in recent history where a known vice presidential finalist plausibly could have delivered an electorally decisive home state...." http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...-selection-matters-less-than-you-think-213805
 

thorr97

Banned
The left wing journalist Alexander Cockburn always maintained that Monica Lewinsky inadvertently saved social security, by preventing Gingrich and Clinton from giving it the same treatment they gave welfare reform. You can put as much weight on this opinion as it will bear.

Privatizing Social Security would've likely been devastating to the Democrats come 2000. There'd have been some massive political infighting between the Progressive arm of the Democrats and the elitists who were Clinton's peers. "Clinton sold us out!" would be a pretty nasty rallying cry to sweep the Democratic primaries and Convention hall floor. It might well be enough to knock out anyone too closely tied to Bill - such as Gore. At the least, it might significantly soften Al's appeal come that November.
 
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