Another thing, depending on when Atwater leaves, that bears mentioning. If he leaves before the primaries, Bush might well have a harder time winning the nomination. Even historically, when you consider the conditions, from what I know Bush had a more difficult time being nominated than someone in his position at the time should have had, at least in the beginning stages through Iowa. Bush lost Iowa to Sen. Robert Dole. Atwater played a big, though not exclusive, part in Bush's victory in New Hampshire, and the subseqeuent collapse of the Dole campaign. Had Atwater not been there, I can see the margins in New Hampshire being closer, and depending on just how important Atwater was in rallying the campaign after Iowa, there is at least a very slight, small chance of a Dole victory. If that happens, and again I am not saying that it would because arguably the tax pledge issue played a bigger role than Atwatet, Bush's path to the nomination would become much more difficult. He would be perceived a running a losing campaign, and a lot of the time perspective is reality. Worse, Dole would remain competitive through the primaries. New Hampshire has been described as a must win primary for Bush in 1988. For structural party reasons, I still think in the worst case scenario for the Bush campaign, he still wins the nomination. But he would have been much more worn down by a primary fight, which means he enters the General Election with even lower support than he initially had historically.