WI: No Lee Atwater in 1988

Lee Atwater's cancer catches him earlier than OTL and he's forced to bow out of being George H. W. Bush's campaign manager in the 1988 presidential election. Dukakis is nominated as OTL.

'sall I'm going to say for now.
 
This Was Before Atwater Got To Work (OTL Polls)

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There would be so many changes without George H. W. Bush's many vetoes.
 
That was the kind of answer I was expecting. I've heard varied opinions on how much Atwater influenced the election, but I always felt he was the driving force to Dukakis' failures being as major as they were.
 
That was the kind of answer I was expecting. I've heard varied opinions on how much Atwater influenced the election, but I always felt he was the driving force to Dukakis' failures being as major as they were.

Yup. Atwater doesn't even have to get cancer. Bush nearly fired him multiple times but he proved effective and Dubya became friends with him during the campaign so that made removing him harder.

Bush could just start the campaign with a different manager. Ed Rollins comes to mind but there are other options. If Bush still wins depends on how the campaign is ran from there on.

For the record, Atwater getting dismissed from the campain is an important part of my Biden TL... /endplug
 
On the topic of Lee Atwater getting cancer earlier, don't expect him to actually turn a new leaf. The tale that he turned into a Christian when he got cancer and was sorry for what he had done is hogwash. To quote:

Ed Rollins, however, stated in the 2008 documentary Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story, that "[Atwater] was telling this story about how a Living Bible was what was giving him faith and I said to Mary (Matalin), 'I really, sincerely hope that he found peace.' She said, 'Ed, when we were cleaning up his things afterwards, the Bible was still wrapped in the cellophane and had never been taken out of the package,' which just told you everything there was. He was spinning right to the end."[10]
It was a lie and a PR stunt to go out forgiven and reformed in the public imagination. That is among the reasons I despise Lee Atwater and view him as an evil man. And I don't mean that as an exaggerated statement. I mean literally evil.
 
On the topic of Lee Atwater getting cancer earlier, don't expect him to actually turn a new leaf. The tale that he turned into a Christian when he got cancer and was sorry for what he had done is hogwash. To quote:

It was a lie and a PR stunt to go out forgiven and reformed in the public imagination. That is among the reasons I despise Lee Atwater and view him as an evil man. And I don't mean that as an exaggerated statement. I mean literally evil.

Oh wow, that's certainly a thing! :eek:
 
Another thing, depending on when Atwater leaves, that bears mentioning. If he leaves before the primaries, Bush might well have a harder time winning the nomination. Even historically, when you consider the conditions, from what I know Bush had a more difficult time being nominated than someone in his position at the time should have had, at least in the beginning stages through Iowa. Bush lost Iowa to Sen. Robert Dole. Atwater played a big, though not exclusive, part in Bush's victory in New Hampshire, and the subseqeuent collapse of the Dole campaign. Had Atwater not been there, I can see the margins in New Hampshire being closer, and depending on just how important Atwater was in rallying the campaign after Iowa, there is at least a very slight, small chance of a Dole victory. If that happens, and again I am not saying that it would because arguably the tax pledge issue played a bigger role than Atwatet, Bush's path to the nomination would become much more difficult. He would be perceived a running a losing campaign, and a lot of the time perspective is reality. Worse, Dole would remain competitive through the primaries. New Hampshire has been described as a must win primary for Bush in 1988. For structural party reasons, I still think in the worst case scenario for the Bush campaign, he still wins the nomination. But he would have been much more worn down by a primary fight, which means he enters the General Election with even lower support than he initially had historically.
 
To be honest, my core point in this thread was trying to settle the idea that Dukakis had a strong chance to win 1988 if not for Atwater. I've seen him come up in other threads under completely different circumstances and be completely dismissed based on him losing to Bush OTL and his gaffes late in the game, most of which I still chalk up to the political environment Atwater cultivated.

That said, it seems logical to me that Dole could beat Bush without Atwater, but ironically that's what brought me to this question - I made a separate thread about the idea of a Dole vs. Dukakis match-up and it generally came back to the two's lack of charisma and Dukakis' later gaffes that, as I said above, I'm not sure would have occurred against an Atwater-less campaign.
 
Dukakis could have very much won. He personally wasn't a weak candidate, per se, but his campaign staff was also weak, while facing a fierce GOP machine. For some reason for the majority of the general he stuck with the (inept) novice Susan Estrich. There is some room for improvement there as well.

As a candidate, not resume but human connection, on the campaign trail Dukakis trumped Bush, in my opinion.
 
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There would be so many changes without George H. W. Bush's many vetoes.

Just goes to show you the extent to which the idea that Reagan's presidency was positive one with mass public support has been an invention of the last decade or so.
 
Just goes to show you the extent to which the idea that Reagan's presidency was positive one with mass public support has been an invention of the last decade or so.

I think it is also forgotten how divided the GOP was in '88-'00 and that there was no consensus between 'true believers' and pragmatists until Dubya - the literal synthesis of old school east wing ruling class and sun belt conservatives.
 
For some reason for the majority of the general he stuck with the (inept) novice Susan Estrich. There is some room for improvement there as well.

Yeah: 'improvement' defined as 'bringing back John Sasso.' Unfortunately, the Duke decided to do that after dropping 30 points in six weeks.
 
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