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One of the major policies of America's post-WWII occupation of Japan was land reform, to break up the holdings of large landlords, reduce rural tenancy in Japan, and create more a more independent, and more democratic, farmer class in Japan.

It was all very New Deal-ish or Social Democratic in concept and execution. It seems natural that a Roosevelt or Truman Administration would find this social change desirable in Japan. Perhaps the only plausible PoDs would come if the occupation of Japan was carried out under a Republican Administration, for instance, if Dewey were elected in 1944, or if Wendell Willkie were elected in 1940 and the US fought the war under him.

As for later effects, the rural small farmer class became one of the political mainstays of the near-perpetually ruling center-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Rural areas were generally a vote bank for the LDP politicians, and the electoral system over represented rural constituencies. In turn, the LDP has supported agricultural protectionism. As well, land reform made for a more egalitarian rural and national economy than an unreformed land system and widespread tenancy would have allowed.

So if landlordism and tenancy had persisted in the absence of land reform, would Japan ultimately have become more politically diverse, without a hegemonic position for the LDP?

Could Japan's Socialists or Communists earned the support of the rural tenant classes in electoral politics, activism or even insurgency?

Or might a more conservative version of the LDP, attuned to landlord interests, have been hegemonic for most of Japan's postwar history.

What else would lack of land reform do to Japan's overall economy? And some other Asian countries, most notably Taiwan (I don't think Korea did), imitated Japan's system of land reform. Without the Japanese example, what does an unreformed land system do to the overall economy and politics of Taiwan under the ROC?

....also, let me just use this as an opportunity to shout out, "hey, we don't have nearly enough post WWII Japanese what-ifs!" Consider this my minor contribution to a solution of that problem.
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