WI: No Khwarezmian Betrayal

[Forbiddenparadise64]

Researching medieval history, an interesting point I've thought about is what if the sultan of Khwarezmia hadn't been a total idiot and massacred Temujin's caravan and ambassadors, which directly led to war between them and the Mongols. Khwarezmia was one of the most prosperous empires in the world, with a city of Samarkland holding well over a million people inside, along with libraries and centre's of culture of profound importance to the Islamic world, second only to Baghdad. Even an entire ethnic group which had now disappeared in favour of Persians and other Turkic peoples. There's no doubt Khwarezmia would have fallen eventually, but probably not in such a devastating fashion. I wonder if Central Asia would have done a lot better without the yoke of the Mongols and becoming a backwater for Russia, China and Britain to compete over.

On the contrary, how would it have affected the Mongols? The conflict forced Genghis to fight a war on two fronts (three once the Xia Xia betrayed them) as opposed to a united front against the Jin. Genghis diverted probably 100-150k men to invade Khwarezmia and a not much smaller one to invade Xia Xia, who had bent the knee before hand but used the second front as an opportunity to betray Genghis (really didn't work out well). I don't think the Xia would have dared to betray without a second front, and so assuming no one backstabs, Temujin should be able to focus all his resources on the Jin. Meanwhile, Khwarezmia continued on its quest to build up against the declining Abbasids.

What do people think of this analysis?

 

[Art]

The information I have about that is that Ghenghis made a diplomatic error in calling the Khwarezm Shah his son. To Ghengis that was a compliment, to the Shah it was calling him a vassal of Ghenghis's. He ordered the governor of one of his cities to attack a Mongol caravan carrying gifts to the Shah. That started the war.

 

[darthfanta]

The information I have about that is that Ghenghis made a diplomatic error in calling the Khwarezm Shah his son. To Ghengis that was a compliment, to the Shah it was calling him a vassal of Ghenghis's. He ordered the governor of one of his cities to attack a Mongol caravan carrying gifts to the Shah. That started the war.

You sure it wasn't actually a calculated move to provide a valid 'cases belli'?

 

[longsword14]

I wonder if Central Asia would have done a lot better without the yoke of the Mongols and becoming a backwater for Russia, China and Britain to compete over.

The Mongols were nothing new, just a lot more dangerous. Central Asia is simply meant to be backwards for its medieval history has nomads as their overlords, with the settled population often becoming important only to have another invasion from the various tribes.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

Samarqand having one million people? That is frankly insanity. It was along with Merv, Konjikala, Urgench, etc fair sized cities, but a population of one million was unheard of in the Islamic world for the time.

 

[Forbiddenparadise64]

The information I have about that is that Ghenghis made a diplomatic error in calling the Khwarezm Shah his son. To Ghengis that was a compliment, to the Shah it was calling him a vassal of Ghenghis's. He ordered the governor of one of his cities to attack a Mongol caravan carrying gifts to the Shah. That started the war.

Hmm. Very interesting. This question is about what if there wasn't a Mongolia-Khwarezmia war so perhaps this change of sentence could alter the outcome?

You sure it wasn't actually a calculated move to provide a valid 'cases belli'?

Possibly, but Genghis was at war with the Jin. A war on two fronts is always a huge gamble at best.

The Mongols were nothing new, just a lot more dangerous. Central Asia is simply meant to be backwards for its medieval history has nomads as their overlords, with the settled population often becoming important only to have another invasion from the various tribes.

And the significant cities of that era didn't exist? It didn't stop the cities from being very significant at the time. I know the Mongols weren't the first warring nomads, nor the most physically imposing or even experienced, but their strategy is what allowed them such success.

Samarqand having one million people? That is frankly insanity. It was along with Merv, Konjikala, Urgench, etc fair sized cities, but a population of one million was unheard of in the Islamic world for the time.

Yeah I think i mixed the population of the city with the death toll of the war. Oops.

Still, the OP remains on what if the war hadn't happened and how the two empires would have developed in the following years and decades. Longer term impact is harder to predict, but can still be done feasibly.