alternatehistory.com

Alexander Kerensky was one of the most pivotal historical figures of the 20th century and proved to be utterly unable to live up to his responsibilities. The February revolution had overthrown the Tsar and a provisional government came to power...sort of. He came lead Russia's provisional government in mid-1917 and needed to manage the balance of power between the left (the Soviets/SR/Menshevik/Bolsheviks etc), the center (i.e Kadets) and the right (black hundreds, monarchists) within revolutionary Russia. It would have being hard even for a genius statesman to stabilize the revolution and Kerensky very unwisely chose to gamble everything on a big offensive against Germany hoping it would unite the country behind him.

The offensive failed and Russia lost over 400,000 men in an already war weary country and demoralized army. This failure, along with almost comical incompetence in the aftermath such as Kornilov affair sealed the fate of the provisional government and the Bolsheviks overthrew it with relatively little effort in October 1917. One of the key reasons why the government fell was because of its refusal to make peace in a country demanding it.

What if Kerensky is simply a better politician and comes to the insight that peace is the only way to stay in power? The situation for Russia was dire in May 1917 but far less so than a year later. Let's say the PG successfully arranges a ceasefire and a peace where Russia gives up Poland and much of the Baltics and some guarantee of delivering Ukrainian grain to Germany. Let's say the peace stabilizes the government for the time being and take the winds out of the Bolshevik's sails for 6-12 month or so.

Does the government survive into the 20s and 30s? Is it a left-wing or right-wing government? Does pre-emptying the Bolshevik mean no Nazi takeover in Germany? Does Germany win WWI given an earlier peace on the eastern front? Is there still a WWII? What does Russia look like by 1937?
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