WI No Katyn?

What if Stalin didn't give the order to kill all the captured Polish officers in 1940? Everything else still goes the same.

I imagine this would definitely ease tension between the Soviet Union and the Western Allies, and could possibly lead to a higher chance of the Polish Government-In-Exile being restored to power. However, this is Stalin we're talking about, so I imagine things won't be that easy.

Thoughts?
 
What happens to the victims?

One way ticket to Siberia perhaps? Stalin definitely wouldn't leave eastern Poland's intelligentsia (which Katyn victims were) alone, since they were 'enemy of the people'. No reason to use it as a gesture towards Allies either, since he didn't had knowledge how WW2 would turn out, and at this point he was quite happy about joint German-Soviet cooperation in Poland.
 
One way ticket to Siberia perhaps? Stalin definitely wouldn't leave eastern Poland's intelligentsia (which Katyn victims were) alone, since they were 'enemy of the people'. No reason to use it as a gesture towards Allies either, since he didn't had knowledge how WW2 would turn out, and at this point he was quite happy about joint German-Soviet cooperation in Poland.

I agree, probably a similar effect then, he's given the same death sentence to the vast majority, someone will notice even if the revelation isn't as stark.
 
The ones who are military officers could be useful when the German war comes--many Polish units surrendered to the Soviets thinking the Soviets were coming to help them fight the Germans, so whatever issues they'd have with the Soviets for being Communist or Russian at this point took second place to dealing with the Nazis.

Some kind of puppet Polish army, perhaps?
 
The ones who are military officers could be useful when the German war comes--many Polish units surrendered to the Soviets thinking the Soviets were coming to help them fight the Germans, so whatever issues they'd have with the Soviets for being Communist or Russian at this point took second place to dealing with the Nazis.

Some kind of puppet Polish army, perhaps?

Camp survivors (if this was any regular kind of camp, that is, there'd be many; unless it was just an excuse to execute everyone, but that's not what POD is asking for) could really be integrated into Red Polish units later on, yes. This is from a pragmatic point of view, which is presumably what motivates Stalin as per POD.
 
That actually happened, but only after early success of German attack on Soviet Union. What is pragmatic for Stalin prior to that is actually what he did - eliminate as much of conscripted officers as possible, thus diminishing Polish nationalism in eastern Poland (without educated elite remainder of Poles can be easily dealt with).
 
That actually happened, but only after early success of German attack on Soviet Union. What is pragmatic for Stalin prior to that is actually what he did - eliminate as much of conscripted officers as possible, thus diminishing Polish nationalism in eastern Poland (without educated elite remainder of Poles can be easily dealt with).

So perhaps a Stalin more paranoid about the Germans or a Stalin actually convinced they were about to attack any day now?
 
So perhaps a Stalin more paranoid about the Germans or a Stalin actually convinced they were about to attack any day now?

Yeah, if that would be the case then he wouldn't have a reason to order Katyn massacre. If additionally Stalin would not order to deport hundreds of thousands Poles to gulags (many of which died), perhaps he could gain stronger support (recruits, cooperation with partisans on German side of the border, etc.).
 
Yeah, if that would be the case then he wouldn't have a reason to order Katyn massacre. If additionally Stalin would not order to deport hundreds of thousands Poles to gulags (many of which died), perhaps he could gain stronger support (recruits, cooperation with partisans on German side of the border, etc.).

From what I understand there was a lot of disagreement even between Polish partisan movements (not that it was better anywhere else, but...).

Is there anyone among the people who were killed who could have acted as a representative for these movements to convince Stalin etc. they were useful?

(still trying to make this plausible).
 
From what I understand there was a lot of disagreement even between Polish partisan movements (not that it was better anywhere else, but...).

Is there anyone among the people who were killed who could have acted as a representative for these movements to convince Stalin etc. they were useful?

(still trying to make this plausible).

Polish Government in Exile, with which Stalin established diplomatic relations only after German invasion.
 
Camp survivors (if this was any regular kind of camp, that is, there'd be many; unless it was just an excuse to execute everyone, but that's not what POD is asking for) could really be integrated into Red Polish units later on, yes. This is from a pragmatic point of view, which is presumably what motivates Stalin as per POD.

I'm talking about the Polish officers who were killed at Katyn OTL--instead of killing them (or sending them into the gulag), he uses them in a military capacity immediately.

OTL saw Czarist officers entrusted with Red units during the Civil War, provided their families were available to be kept as hostages. Perhaps the Soviets make some arrangement with the German occupation forces to get these families--at this point, they and the Nazis are still allied.
 
If there was no Katyń massacre, the Polish officers would have joined General Anders Army in USSR - created after German invasion of the Soviet Union and Sikorski-Mayski agreement (do not confuse with Berling's Army). Polish-Soviet relations might have been better, but Poles still would have been bitter about thousands of Poles exiled to Siberia and Soviet part in Polish campaign of 1939.
Anyway, Anders Army left USSR in 1942 due to supply problems and to protect oil fields in Iran under British command and with benefit of western logistics. Later they fought in Italy as Polish II Corps. With more people supply problems would have been even worse, so Poles still would have left.
However, without Katyń massacre Stalin wouldn't have had a pretext to break relations with Polish government in exile in London. IOTL, when Germans discovered mass graves in Katyń and made it public, Polish government asked teh International Red Cross to investigate. Stalin immediately accused Free Poles of believing in nazi lies, slandering the USSR etc. and broke the relations. Then he used a group of Polish communist (Union of Polish Patriots) as nucleus of communist government of Poland and political face of Polish People's Army.
I believe that without Katyń Stalin would have done the same, the question is what would be his pretext to do so?
 
Originally posted by MerryPrankster
Maybe the Free Poles' not accepting the revised eastern border?
Perhaps, although the final negotiations happened in October 1944. At the time Stalin already had Polish communist government in Lublin and pro-communist Polish Army as officially recognized (by the Soviets) Polish authorities. He would have needed a pretext a little earlier. OTOH he simply might have made his demands public earlier. IOTL Polish government in London had no idea that Polish new eastern border had been decided in Tehran in 1943 - nor British, nor Americans bothered to tell them (not to mention invite them for negotiations). Had Stalin made new Polish-Soviet border public, Free Poles would have had to react. One word of protest and Stalin breaks the relations with Britain's and US blessing.
 
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