WI: No JFK assassination?

Kennedy will win the 1964 election. Lyndon Johnson probably will decline to run as Vice-President because of the investigation he embroiled himself in in Texas. He will pass the 1965 Civil Rights Act by a thin margin.

The Gulf of Tonkin Incident will still cause confusion in the way it did OTL. Kennedy will order airstrikes to retaliate against North Vietnam. He will get the Tonkin Resolution because of fear of a war with China. After the Vietcong begin to storm American airbases in South Vietnam in 1965, he will have no choice, but to send in the marines to defend them. This will escalate into larger battles and more troops sent there. I see fewer than 100,000 troops going into Vietnam though, he does not send nearly as many as Johnson would nor would he micromanage the war. There will still be plenty of race riots and demonstrations against the war. The country will still seem like it's falling apart.

The only other significant piece of legislation Kennedy will pass after 1965 will be Medicaid and probably the Disabilities Act of 1966. The Vietnam War will become a quagmire and peace negotiations will fail until after Kennedy's second term ends. Before the 1960s are out, all of the numerous affairs Kennedy had in the White House will be published in the press and the Republicans will win the 1968 election because of the fallout from it.
 
Kennedy will win the 1964 election. Lyndon Johnson probably will decline to run as Vice-President because of the investigation he embroiled himself in in Texas. He will pass the 1965 Civil Rights Act by a thin margin.

The Gulf of Tonkin Incident will still cause confusion in the way it did OTL. Kennedy will order airstrikes to retaliate against North Vietnam. He will get the Tonkin Resolution because of fear of a war with China. After the Vietcong begin to storm American airbases in South Vietnam in 1965, he will have no choice, but to send in the marines to defend them. This will escalate into larger battles and more troops sent there. I see fewer than 100,000 troops going into Vietnam though, he does not send nearly as many as Johnson would nor would he micromanage the war. There will still be plenty of race riots and demonstrations against the war. The country will still seem like it's falling apart.

The only other significant piece of legislation Kennedy will pass after 1965 will be Medicaid and probably the Disabilities Act of 1966. The Vietnam War will become a quagmire and peace negotiations will fail until after Kennedy's second term ends. Before the 1960s are out, all of the numerous affairs Kennedy had in the White House will be published in the press and the Republicans will win the 1968 election because of the fallout from it.

See, I have to disagree with this assessment. At least, the escalation in Vietnam. LBJ's entire personality and outlook was to trust the Joint Chiefs and pro-'Nam advisors implicitly and accept their "Domino" effect-mentality. With Kennedy in the picture and his post-CMC distrust of and dismissal of most of what the JCS and pro-'Nam advisors had to say, it leads me, anyways, to believe that Jack would much rather be pragmatic, withdraw from Vietnam, bolster defence aid to other anti-Communists countries and avoid getting sucked in to begin with.
 

hipper

Banned
On Vietnam, at a glance it would seem Kennedy seemed to favor strengthening the South Vietnamese Armed Forces over escalation, McNamara stating that Kennedy was considering pulling out after the '64 election. However, there isn't any concrete direction, so Kennedy might escalate.

I think there is a clear direction read John M. Newman’s JFK and Vietnam
the chronology, according to Newman:

(1) On October 2, 1963, Kennedy received the report of a mission to Saigon by McNamara and Maxwell Taylor, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). The main recommendations, which appear in Section I(B) of the McNamara-Taylor report, were that a phased withdrawal be completed by the end of 1965 and that the “Defense Department should announce in the very near future presently prepared plans to withdraw 1,000 out of 17,000 U.S. military personnel stationed in Vietnam by the end of 1963.” At Kennedy’s instruction, Press Secretary Pierre Salinger made a public announcement that evening of McNamara’s recommended timetable for withdrawal.

(2) On October 5, Kennedy made his formal decision. Newman quotes the minutes of the meeting that day:

The President also said that our decision to remove 1,000 U.S. advisors by December of this year should not be raised formally with Diem. Instead the action should be carried out routinely as part of our general posture of withdrawing people when they are no longer needed. (Emphasis added.)

(3) On October 11, the White House issued NSAM 263, which states:

The President approved the military recommendations contained in section I B (1-3) of the report, but directed that no formal announcement be made of the implementation of plans to withdraw 1,000 U.S. military personnel by the end of 1963.


Section I(B) of the report:

We recommend that: [1] General Harkins review with Diem the military changes necessary to complete the military campaign in the Northern and Central areas by the end of 1964, and in the Delta by the end of 1965. [2] A program be established to train Vietnamese so that essential functions now performed by U.S. military personnel can be carried out by Vietnamese by the end of 1965. It should be possible to withdraw the bulk of U.S. personnel by that time. [3] In accordance with the program to train progressively Vietnamese to take over military functions, the Defense Department should announce in the very near future presently prepared plans to withdraw 1000 U.S. military personnel by the end of 1963.

Despite a lot of twisting by Historians I don't see how his intention can be in doubt.

The article I'm cutting an pasting form can be found here

http://bostonreview.net/us/galbraith-exit-strategy-vietnam

cheers
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
I think there is a clear direction read John M. Newman’s JFK and Vietnam
the chronology, according to Newman:

(1) On October 2, 1963, Kennedy received the report of a mission to Saigon by McNamara and Maxwell Taylor, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). The main recommendations, which appear in Section I(B) of the McNamara-Taylor report, were that a phased withdrawal be completed by the end of 1965 and that the “Defense Department should announce in the very near future presently prepared plans to withdraw 1,000 out of 17,000 U.S. military personnel stationed in Vietnam by the end of 1963.” At Kennedy’s instruction, Press Secretary Pierre Salinger made a public announcement that evening of McNamara’s recommended timetable for withdrawal.

(2) On October 5, Kennedy made his formal decision. Newman quotes the minutes of the meeting that day:

The President also said that our decision to remove 1,000 U.S. advisors by December of this year should not be raised formally with Diem. Instead the action should be carried out routinely as part of our general posture of withdrawing people when they are no longer needed. (Emphasis added.)

(3) On October 11, the White House issued NSAM 263, which states:

The President approved the military recommendations contained in section I B (1-3) of the report, but directed that no formal announcement be made of the implementation of plans to withdraw 1,000 U.S. military personnel by the end of 1963.


Section I(B) of the report:

We recommend that: [1] General Harkins review with Diem the military changes necessary to complete the military campaign in the Northern and Central areas by the end of 1964, and in the Delta by the end of 1965. [2] A program be established to train Vietnamese so that essential functions now performed by U.S. military personnel can be carried out by Vietnamese by the end of 1965. It should be possible to withdraw the bulk of U.S. personnel by that time. [3] In accordance with the program to train progressively Vietnamese to take over military functions, the Defense Department should announce in the very near future presently prepared plans to withdraw 1000 U.S. military personnel by the end of 1963.

Despite a lot of twisting by Historians I don't see how his intention can be in doubt.

The article I'm cutting an pasting form can be found here

http://bostonreview.net/us/galbraith-exit-strategy-vietnam

cheers

Well, that's a pretty good resource. Okay, so Kennedy phases America out, strengthening the backbone of the Vietnamese Army to allow this. After a brief period of escalation following Tonkin bay, Kennedy would most likely leave a small contingency force on the DMZ (Much like in Berlin and Korea, it won't be made of conscripts but professional soldiers) and maintain Special Ops in Laos to cut off the Viet Cong's Ho Chi Minh trail.

I'm still curious, what would have happened to the Space Agency under Kennedy? Would it have developed the same under Johnson, would it have faulted, or would it have had more success?
 
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<begin sarcasm> I'm so glad to see us go into fresh fields like this one rather than hackneyed topics we go over every two weeks or so! <end sarcasm>

For my own take on what-would-JFK-have-done-about-Vietnam see https://www.alternatehistory.comwww...iscussion/showpost.php?p=9892176&postcount=11 For a rebuttal, see https://www.alternatehistory.comwww...iscussion/showpost.php?p=9904625&postcount=21 For my rebuttal to that rebuttal, see https://www.alternatehistory.comwww...iscussion/showpost.php?p=9945139&postcount=22
 

hipper

Banned
<begin sarcasm> I'm so glad to see us go into fresh fields like this one rather than hackneyed topics we go over every two weeks or so! <end sarcasm>

For my own take on what-would-JFK-have-done-about-Vietnam see https://www.alternatehistory.comwww...iscussion/showpost.php?p=9892176&postcount=11 For a rebuttal, see https://www.alternatehistory.comwww...iscussion/showpost.php?p=9904625&postcount=21 For my rebuttal to that rebuttal, see https://www.alternatehistory.comwww...iscussion/showpost.php?p=9945139&postcount=22

Hmm one can endlessly debate what JFK would had done if he lived - it is unknowable. What is clear however, is his intention in October 1963 "to withdraw the bulk of U.S. personnel by that time" (1965).
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
<begin sarcasm> I'm so glad to see us go into fresh fields like this one rather than hackneyed topics we go over every two weeks or so! <end sarcasm>

Okay, so let's move onto some new topics that aren't Vietnam. What about these:

-Space Agency
-Israel (Specifically the Six Day War)
-Education and Immigration (Just a general policy outlook I guess)
-The Deaths of Prominent Civil Rights activists in the second half of the 60's
-Effect of Kennedy's survival on the Democrats by 1968 (I propose that Storm Thurmond, in protest of the Civil Rights act, leads a schism with the Conservative faction of the Democrats and forms a new party instead of switching to Republican).
 
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