WI no Japanese recession

[Tyr]

What if things don't go quite so pear shaped for Japan in 1990?
Maybe the government doesn't agree to alter the value of the yen to keep the US happy and it introduced some sane taxes (even today Japanese VAT is something like 3% iirc).
In short...how could we get one of the central features of cyberpunk to hold true, a Japan that just keeps rising and what would the impact of a strong, confident Japan through the 90s and 00s be?

 

[Cymraeg]

What if things don't go quite so pear shaped for Japan in 1990?
Maybe the government doesn't agree to alter the value of the yen to keep the US happy and it introduced some sane taxes (even today Japanese VAT is something like 3% iirc).
In short...how could we get one of the central features of cyberpunk to hold true, a Japan that just keeps rising and what would the impact of a strong, confident Japan through the 90s and 00s be?

Good question. I'm guessing that at the very least there'd be a lot more friction with the up and coming Chinese economy.

 

[Tyr]

I would think perhaps the opposite actually, Japan a lot more involved with the growing Chinese economy, being the main investor there　perhaps.

 

[Plumber]

I think someone mentioned at one point that Japan could keep hiding it's weaknesses, but during the *Asian Financial Crisis Japan would have popped as well, the result being a depression.

 

[tallwingedgoat]

The Detroit automakers would probably not have survived to present time. The Korean car makers likely would not have found their market. The computer gadget market could be dominated by Sony rather than Apple.

The Japan-bashing tide wouldn't have receded by the mid-90s. Without the Soviet threat, US would have no leverage to force the Japanese to adopt self limiting export reduction. The US-Japan relationship would be full of tensions in the 90s, possibly leading to a much more independent Japanese foreign policy.

 

[KyleB]

You can't just stop the bubble entirely. But I suppose that Japanese infrastructure wouldn't have gotten the extra construction from the 90s stimulus spending.

The Detroit automakers would probably not have survived to present time.

I doubt it, considering that so much of the car industry is internationally integrated anyway. Detroit was a little stronger in the 90s than they are now... maybe the extra competition back then would have whipped them into shape earlier.

 

[Enigmajones]

Could this result in Nintendo making an actually decent system after the 64?

 

[Plumber]

Could this result in Nintendo making an actually decent system after the 64?

This ain't '05

 

[tallwingedgoat]

I doubt it, considering that so much of the car industry is internationally integrated anyway. Detroit was a little stronger in the 90s than they are now... maybe the extra competition back then would have whipped them into shape earlier.

There were no signs of life from the Big Three in the 90s and they didn't show any until mid 2000s. If the Japanese economy kept growing, rising labor costs would force them to outsource to places like China. That would squeeze out American investments there. One of the smartest things GM did in the 90s was invest in the Chinese market, it's now their largest. If the Chinese are driving Hondas instead of those Buicks, I don't see how GM could survive today.

 

[Hnau]

Electric Monk posted a timeline called Japan Dodges the Bubble which deals with this idea. It also led up to the creation of his more recent ATL: Avoiding the Lost Decades which covers much of the same ground.

Enjoy.

 

[Sumeragi]

The Korean car makers likely would not have found their market.

Actually, they would have. Because of the voluntary export restraints, Japan had been effectively kicked out of the low-price market, which Hyundai came to fill in. A strong Japan would have accelerated the expansion of Hyundai by leaving more room.

 

[tallwingedgoat]

Actually, they would have. Because of the voluntary export restraints, Japan had been effectively kicked out of the low-price market, which Hyundai came to fill in. A strong Japan would have accelerated the expansion of Hyundai by leaving more room.

Export restraints forced Japanese car makers to go up market which made room for Korean cars to compete with the Big Three for economy cars. If the Japanese kept eating Detroit's lunch, there wont be any left for the Koreans.

 

[Sumeragi]

Export restraints forced Japanese car makers to go up market which made room for Korean cars to compete with the Big Three for economy cars. If the Japanese kept eating Detroit's lunch, there wont be any left for the Koreans.

The Japanese wouldn't have been able to keep eating Detroit's lunch because of its own economic success leading to an extension of the VER. As long as Japan is successful, the VER would have been kept alive or became even stronger, leaving more room for the Big Three and the Korean carmakers.