WI: No James I & VI

Yorel

What would happen if OTL James I & VI had been a stillborn child and Mary Stuart, Queen of the Scots, had found herself unable to father another child after him? I'm asking this question because James I & VI was apparently the only legitimate surviving descendant of James IV of Scotland and Margaret Tudor. Thus, without him, England and Scotland do not end up in Personnal Union.

The first in line for the succession in England, according to Primogeniture, would be Edward Seymour (1561-1612), Viscount Beauchamp. However, he is the son of Catherine Grey whom Elizabeth disliked. After him and his children, the next in line is Anne Stanley (1580-1647), Countess of Castlehaven. Would Elizabeth let Edward Seymour succeed her or would she go for Anne Stanley?

And who exactly would succeed Mary Stuart in Scotland were she to die childless?
 

jakewilson

I think Mary, Queen of Scots, would find it difficult to father a child under any circumstances.:rolleyes:
That said, Anne Stanley, and before her her father Ferdinando Stanley (I would love to see a timeline featuring Ferdinando I of England), were treated as heirs presumptive before James started sending letters and gifts south. If James had been hostile to Elizabeth they might have ended up on the throne anyway.

Three questions: How do the English feel about having three ruling queens in a row? Anne was unmarried in 1603, who does she choose as a husband? And who succeeds to the Scots throne?
 

jakewilson

So, the Earl of Arran would be next in line for Scotland, but he was apparently insane and confined to his bedchambers. It's quite possible that he could be passed over in favor of his brother John, or at least have a regency set up.
And the Stanleys come before the Greys in the succession.
 

jakewilson

No, I'm wrong, the Greys are senior, but Edward Seymour was regarded as illegitimate, so the point is moot anyway.
Unless he insisted on his legitimacy, raised an army, and fought a civil war. Which the Scots intervene in in favor of Lady Arbella. This is a surprisingly exciting POD.
 

jakewilson

Gonzaga said:
Do you think that Arbella didn't have a chance at the succession?
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Not really. I don't think that the Hamiltons would have pressed the point except as a bargaining chip to secure concessions from whoever takes over.

I think that Anne Stanley was the consensus heir of the English establishment. There would have to be major problems with her rule for her to be throne out in favor of either Edward or Arbella. If she married a Catholic, for example. And an English heir will be preferred to a Scots one in that eventuality.
 

Gonzaga

jakewilson said:
I think that Anne Stanley was the consensus heir of the English establishment. There would have to be major problems with her rule for her to be throne out in favor of either Edward or Arbella. If she married a Catholic, for example. And an English heir will be preferred to a Scots one in that eventuality.
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Arbella was considered English as she was born in England. She even didn't receive an earldom in Scotland because of that.
 

Desmond Hume

jakewilson said:
No, I'm wrong, the Greys are senior, but Edward Seymour was regarded as illegitimate, so the point is moot anyway.
Unless he insisted on his legitimacy, raised an army, and fought a civil war. Which the Scots intervene in in favor of Lady Arbella. This is a surprisingly exciting POD.
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Is there any possibility of Edward Seymour being legitimized and recognized as heir while Elizabeth is still alive?

If not, Parliament could do that after her death. I remember reading that Burghley concocted a plan early in Elizabeth's reign to have Parliament evaluate and vote on the various candidates to the throne in the event of her sudden death, but this scheme was mooted later on when James VI became the fairly obvious heir. If there is no James, and Elizabeth dies without leaving clear wishes (which she probably would, since she was intensely against all discussion of what would happen after her), then Parliament could well end up electing Edward Seymour King of England. Which is itself a very interesting precedent.
 

jakewilson

The important thing is that the court and Elizabeth regarded the Stanleys as the legitimate heirs. Lady Anne will be the one to get the signet ring after Elizabeth dies because of that. Edward and possibly Arbella will be looking for an in to throne, but they'll face an uphill fight because Anne will get there first.
 

jakewilson

What I'm saying is that the Stanleys get the crown by default. Anyone else (and it might have someone else) will only be able to get it through a coup, palace or otherwise.
 
Alex Richards

Alex Richards

Donor
Best PoD for this is that the Rizzio murder does cause a miscarriage (it nearly did OTL). Mary probably divorces, and maybe executes, Darnley on the grounds of 'causing greivous harm to the Royal Person and the succession', and we could end up seeing a rather nasty Civil War in Scotland.

The biggest problem here for Arabella is that this PoD is some 10 years before her parents even married, so it takes a pretty hefty butterfly net for her even to be born.

As for Scotland, we could see a war between the Earl of Arran and the Earl of Moray (a Protestant illegitimate son of James V), with depending on cicumstance a few others in the mix as well for the throne. I did this map some time ago based on this which includes a few supporters of restoration for Mary, the Earl of Lennox and the Lady Elizabeth Stuart (who is considered to have been one of the influences for the character of Lady Macbeth BTW.)
 

Gonzaga

Alex Richards said:
Best PoD for this is that the Rizzio murder does cause a miscarriage (it nearly did OTL). Mary probably divorces, and maybe executes, Darnley on the grounds of 'causing greivous harm to the Royal Person and the succession', and we could end up seeing a rather nasty Civil War in Scotland.

The biggest problem here for Arabella is that this PoD is some 10 years before her parents even married, so it takes a pretty hefty butterfly net for her even to be born.

As for Scotland, we could see a war between the Earl of Arran and the Earl of Moray (a Protestant illegitimate son of James V), with depending on cicumstance a few others in the mix as well for the throne. I did this map some time ago based on this which includes a few supporters of restoration for Mary, the Earl of Lennox and the Lady Elizabeth Stuart (who is considered to have been one of the influences for the character of Lady Macbeth BTW.)
Click to expand...

I forgot how early was the POD regarding the age of the main possible claimants. So, we could have more or less candidates for the throne, and some of the female candidates could be born as male (or the contrary). That certainly makes things even more messy by 1603.
 

Mikestone8

Of course a lot depends on exactly when James dies.

Presumably it needs to be before 1594 when his son Henry was born, which means a decade or so before Elizabeth. Could we see Anne Stanley being married to James Hamilton (later 4th Earl of Arran) and so uniting the crowns another way?
 

Nazi Space Spy

Gonzaga said:
I forgot how early was the POD regarding the age of the main possible claimants. So, we could have more or less candidates for the throne, and some of the female candidates could be born as male (or the contrary). That certainly makes things even more messy by 1603.
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If Anne Stanley became Queen, then who would be her heir? Not much on her kids.
 

Maniakes

The legal heir to the English throne according to various theories of succession:

Will of Henry VIII

  • Anne Stanley is the most likely heir here, as discussed above. May face opposition, since the Stanley family has been under suspicion for Catholic sympathies.
  • Edward Seymour, Viscount Beauchamp, was generally regarded as a bastard due to the irregularity and lack of documentation of his parents' alleged marriage. But if he can get this reversed or overlooked, he's genealogically senior to Anne.
Male-Preference Primogeniture

  • Arabella Stuart, as discussed above.
Illegitimate Descendants of Henry VIII

  • George Carey, 2nd Baron Hunsdon -- his father was widely rumored to be the illegitimate son of Henry VIII by Mary Boleyn. This is an extremely weak claim, but there is recent precedent for royal inheritance through bastard lines: Henry VII's claim to the throne came through an acknowledged bastard of John of Gaunt, and Henry VIII at one point had been setting up his acknowledged bastard Henry FitzRoy as his heir.

York Heirs

  • The senior descendant of George, Duke of Clarence (middle brother of Edward IV and Richard III) is George Hastings, 4th Earl of Huntingdon. His older brother (Henry Hastings, 3rd Earl of Huntingdon) had at one point (in the 1560s, I think) tried to set himself up as Elizabeth's heir if she died from illness, and has attracted a bit of support before Elizabeth recovered and quashed the discussions.
  • There are some surviving descendants of John de la Pole, the appointed heir of Richard III (descended from Richard's sister Elizabeth, Duchess of Suffolk). I think the senior heir of this line in 1603 is Jacques de Secondat de Montesquieu, a complete non-entity in English politics, as the family has been French for 2-3 generations by this point.
Lancaster Heirs

  • Isabella Clara Eugenia, daughter of King Philip II of Spain, is descended by legitimate line from John of Gaunt on both her father's side and her mother's side. The post-invasion plan for the Spanish Armada had been to put her on the English throne.
I think we can rule out Isabella, Jacque, and George Carey. Anne Stanley's probably the front-runner if the Catholicism rumors don't stick, and Arabella Stuart or George Hastings otherwise. Arabella might try to shore up her claim by marrying one of the other claimants or their heir (IOTL, she eventually marries William Seymour, son of Edward Seymour).

There's also an intriguing possibility of abolishing the monarchy after Elizabeth's death. IOTL, there was some discussion among members of Elizabeth's privy council who opposed James as heir (most notably Sir Walter Raleigh) of establishing a Republic upon Elizabeth's death.

As for the Scottish throne:

  • James Hamilton, 3rd Earl of Arran had OTL been considered heir presumptive of James VI until the birth of James VI's first son. By 1603, however, James Hamilton has long been confined to his rooms as a lunatic, so he may be passed over in favor of his son John Hamilton.
  • Arabella Stuart has a pretty strong genealogical claim based on her descent from the Earls of Lennox, but has little or no native Scottish political support. Her only chance of claiming the Scottish throne would be with English armies at her back.
  • Arabella's cousin Ludovic Stewart, Duke of Lennox inherited Arabella's father's Scottish titles, and could be argued to have inherited the Lennox claim to the Scottish throne as well.
 

Mikestone8

Maniakes said:
York Heirs

  • The senior descendant of George, Duke of Clarence (middle brother of Edward IV and Richard III) is George Hastings, 4th Earl of Huntingdon. His older brother (Henry Hastings, 3rd Earl of Huntingdon) had at one point (in the 1560s, I think) tried to set himself up as Elizabeth's heir if she died from illness, and has attracted a bit of support before Elizabeth recovered and quashed the discussions.
  • There are some surviving descendants of John de la Pole, the appointed heir of Richard III (descended from Richard's sister Elizabeth, Duchess of Suffolk). I think the senior heir of this line in 1603 is Jacques de Secondat de Montesquieu, a complete non-entity in English politics, as the family has been French for 2-3 generations by this point.
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Not sure about de la Pole descendants, but there were definitely some froim his mother's elder sister, Anne Plantagenet. Iirc the Duke of Rutland was nearest the throne.
 
DrakeRlugia

DrakeRlugia

I think the English de la Pole's were extinct by time Elizabeth came to the throne. Henry VIII had done his part to execute a good lot of them (he was always suspicious of those with Plantagenet blood). Cardinal de la Pole was the last remaining male, and he died within hours of Mary. There is Ursula de la Pole who married Henry Stafford and they had a great many issue, but I think his sons were Catholics and got tied up in the business of the Northern Rebellion.

I think the most popular choices would be the Stanleys. The Greys are certainly out of the question as most of those girls had no popular support and also made some very poor choices which upset Elizabeth and earned her wrath. You can discount the foreign claimants with Yorkist/Lancaster blood, as they would honestly have no chance at claiming the throne beyond a force of arms. I've always been partial to the claim of Hastings, and he was certainly a popular choice in the 1560s when Elizabeth fell ill, but after that his name nor that of his family's ever cropped back up when talks of the succession resurfaced.
 

Yorel

Maniakes said:
York Heirs

  • The senior descendant of George, Duke of Clarence (middle brother of Edward IV and Richard III) is George Hastings, 4th Earl of Huntingdon. His older brother (Henry Hastings, 3rd Earl of Huntingdon) had at one point (in the 1560s, I think) tried to set himself up as Elizabeth's heir if she died from illness, and has attracted a bit of support before Elizabeth recovered and quashed the discussions.
  • There are some surviving descendants of John de la Pole, the appointed heir of Richard III (descended from Richard's sister Elizabeth, Duchess of Suffolk). I think the senior heir of this line in 1603 is Jacques de Secondat de Montesquieu, a complete non-entity in English politics, as the family has been French for 2-3 generations by this point
Click to expand...

I have another possible York heir: Edward Somerset, 4th Earl of Worcester (1568-1628). He is a descendent of Edward IV through his youngest daughter, Catherine, if I'm not wrong.

Of course, like DrakeRlugia said, the English will probably look for someone with Tudor blood rather than a Lancastrian or a Yorkist claimant.
 
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