WI: No Italian Libya

Desmond Hume

With Libya so much in the news lately, I got to thinking: the Italo-Turkish War (which began 100 years ago this September) is one of those not-all-that-long-ago major historical events that no one today seems to think about much. But suppose it never took place (perhaps a different Italian government that isn't interested in pursuing their claim might work as a POD) and Libya remains part of the Ottoman Empire?

What might be the effects of that? At least from the Wiki article, it sounds like the Italian-Turkish war not happening might butterfly away the Balkan Wars (or delay them at least). Could this delay or even prevent anything like WWI from occuring?

Most importantly for this thread, what do you think would happen to Libya in such a scenario?
 

Emperor-of-New-Zealand

Desmond Hume said:
With Libya so much in the news lately, I got to thinking: the Italo-Turkish War (which began 100 years ago this September) is one of those not-all-that-long-ago major historical events that no one today seems to think about much. But suppose it never took place (perhaps a different Italian government that isn't interested in pursuing their claim might work as a POD) and Libya remains part of the Ottoman Empire?

What might be the effects of that? At least from the Wiki article, it sounds like the Italian-Turkish war not happening might butterfly away the Balkan Wars (or delay them at least). Could this delay or even prevent anything like WWI from occuring?

Most importantly for this thread, what do you think would happen to Libya in such a scenario?
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I don't know if WWI could be avoided. I'm sure the powers would find another excuse to duke it out. In which case Libya is probably occupied by the allies and made an Italian mandate post-war, depending on the circumstances. This is assuming the same sides during the war and Italian involvement. IMO, if the Balkan Wars are butterflied and WWI still happens, then there's no Albania and no major Italian interest that side of the Adriatic (apart from their claims against Austria). Perhaps then Italy makes no deals either way and stays neutral.

Regardless, if the allies fight against the Turks, then the Arab rebellion might be expanded to include everyone in the Balkans and the Empire is carved up as OTL but more.
 

anon_user

On the other hand, it's not necessary for the Ottomans to join the Central Powers. Yes, Russia was the old enemy... but the Hapsburgs were also the old enemy, and France was the old ally.

Britain influenced the Ottoman Navy, while the Germans influenced the Army; I think the Ottomans might've held to neutrality, had the British not seized Reshadiye [HMS Erin]and Sultan Osman I [HMS Agincourt] - for that, just have the war break out even a few months later.
 

arctic warrior

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:
I don't know if WWI could be avoided. I'm sure the powers would find another excuse to duke it out. In which case Libya is probably occupied by the allies and made an Italian mandate post-war, depending on the circumstances. This is assuming the same sides during the war and Italian involvement. IMO, if the Balkan Wars are butterflied and WWI still happens, then there's no Albania and no major Italian interest that side of the Adriatic (apart from their claims against Austria). Perhaps then Italy makes no deals either way and stays neutral.

Regardless, if the allies fight against the Turks, then the Arab rebellion might be expanded to include everyone in the Balkans and the Empire is carved up as OTL but more.
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There would still be Italian reason for entering along either side to gain either Trentino, Trieste and Illyria or part of Cotê d'Azur/Savoy. But either could be see in Italy as larger gains than a stretch of sand in North Africa.
 

lukedalton

If there's not a Italo-Turkish war the Balkans war will be probably delayed for some years, but in the end it will happens probably inglobated in WWI. A world conflict is inevitable, too much nationalism, too much contrastant interest and too much hotspot.
For Italy the situation will be akward, no war with Turkey mean that her economy and the armed forces are in a better situation and can probably join the conflict from the beginning but from what side? Franz Ferdinand was rabidly anti-italian and Rome at the next renewal of the alliance will be probably take the option to go away (a move who really don't make the Germans happy with the A-H), but France is not very loved and there are a lot of greviance, probably one of the reason for no invasion of libya it's the decision of Paris to don't uphold their secret treaty with Italy who gives at the latter carte blanche for take Libya. With all probability the italian government will do the same thing as in OTL wait for the one who make the better offer for join his side, or if they are really smart will take what the CP offer for neutrality and wait for the fracas to end.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

lukedalton said:
If there's not a Italo-Turkish war the Balkans war will be probably delayed for some years, but in the end it will happens probably inglobated in WWI. A world conflict is inevitable, too much nationalism, too much contrastant interest and too much hotspot.
For Italy the situation will be akward, no war with Turkey mean that her economy and the armed forces are in a better situation and can probably join the conflict from the beginning but from what side? Franz Ferdinand was rabidly anti-italian and Rome at the next renewal of the alliance will be probably take the option to go away (a move who really don't make the Germans happy with the A-H), but France is not very loved and there are a lot of greviance, probably one of the reason for no invasion of libya it's the decision of Paris to don't uphold their secret treaty with Italy who gives at the latter carte blanche for take Libya. With all probability the italian government will do the same thing as in OTL wait for the one who make the better offer for join his side, or if they are really smart will take what the CP offer for neutrality and wait for the fracas to end.
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"inglobated" is a fantastic word!

I'm just not sure this discussion can move from A to C, without going through B

There's no need to look at what would happen in the Great War, unless in detail it has been decided to look at what happens in the Balkans without the Italo-Turkish War

Were the Albanian risings going to happen from their own origins, and if so would the other nations have sat back whilst the Ottomans put them down?

Would Greece have worked primarily on getting recognition for its effective annexation of Crete? Without victory in the Balkan war would it have dared to formally annex it, let alone got international support for this? It seems likely that it would have in the end, but considering how badly it did militarily in the 1897 war with the Ottomans (tho it did well out of the peace) Greece is probably not looking for a war where it can't be sure that it has great power support

Bulgaria may have been strong and ambitious but only the prospect of war with the Ottomans made Bulgaria and Serbia (briefly) allies - without the prospect of a winnable war, then rivalry and poor relations remain between the two

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Geekhis Khan

A lot of gray area here. Most likely far better for the OE in the short run, and certainly delays the IMO inevitable Balkan Fun Fest and IMO inevitable WWI. That said, the specific changes are hard to predict. If this keeps the OE neutral in the inevitable Franco-Russian-German-later-English minipocalypse then it's super great for them.

In Italy, without the "promised land" of the fourth shore to spur Italian Ultranationalism it'd be curious to see where politics goes there. The I-T War was an early rallying point for nationalists, rightists, and irredentists and may have helped build up and organize these groups. These are the same groups that went on to push interventionism in WWI and later the core of what became the Fasci de Combattimento (an Italian "Freikorps" type group that became an early core of Fascism). Maybe Salandra never rises to power and Giolitti rettains the PMship through the *WWI analog, meaning a possible neutral Italy.
 

lukedalton

If the conquest of Libya isn't done for the interference of the other powers like UK and France (who basically renege previous treaty), the ultranationalist have their cause, a second 'Splap of Tunisi' to inflame public opinion and rally the people around them. This can make Italy more prone to go to war with the CP (if FF don't ascend to the throne, in this case Italy is almost assured to leave the CP, the type was too much anti-italian) or stay simply neutral, tryng to squeeze all the possible concession from both party and bidding is time to take is place on the sun (if Giolitti stay on the government), probably taking Ethiopia during the general war.
From the bright side, no war on libya mean a better italian economy and no Cadorna as Commander of the Italian army, in OTL he was nominated because was not touched by the debacle in North Africa.
IMO WWI will begin in the balkan with some slav revolt and Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece tryng to pile up against OE, then Austria intervene on behalf of the sublime porte as she don't want other nations in the balkans to become too powerfull, Russia mobilize against A-H to protect is allies, German respond at the same manner to help A-H and the thing go as OTL with all the secret treaty and binding alliance.
 

Geekhis Khan

lukedalton said:
If the conquest of Libya isn't done for the interference of the other powers like UK and France (who basically renege previous treaty), the ultranationalist have their cause, a second 'Splap of Tunisi' to inflame public opinion and rally the people around them. This can make Italy more prone to go to war with the CP ...
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Good points. I could see it honestly go either way. That said, this enflames the extremists, but does this draw in the moderates as the post-victory jubilation did OTL?
 

lukedalton

Geekhis Khan said:
Good points. I could see it honestly go either way. That said, this enflames the extremists, but does this draw in the moderates as the post-victory jubilation did OTL?
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Probably yes, at the time a national humiliation like this will probably inflame the general population and all the nation will feel like the proverbial underdog
 

Falecius

Well, there will be major consequences in both Italian and, maybe more important, Ottoman politics.
The alignment of both was to some extent determined by that war and its consequences.
IMO, a general war was likely to happen in any case sooner or later, but the alliances may vary with a delay of -say- three years.
Both Italy and Turkey would be better off.
Ottoman Balkans are almost guaranteed to be a hot spot in any case, I think.
In the OE, more liberal factions will be probably stronger at least short term.
None would dare to strip them of Lybia immediately, except Italy. If France tries, it would almost ensure Italy joining the German side in a war.
 
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