I mean, IOTL the Germans did get pretty close. Moscow was more doubtful than Stalingrad, but if you throw in enough Soviet stupidity and a few extra 20's for the Germans, it could fall, though the slaughter that would ensure would need to be addressed. And it would probably lead to West-allied states being carved out of former Soviet territory, especially with well trained Ethiopian units helping to speed things along in the west and a Balkan Front opening up. OTL Bulgaria nearly ended up leaving the Axis because most of the clergy and people simply refused to cooperate with the Holocaust and Bulgaria didn't like being bullied around by Germany. Turkey also joined the Allies nearly at the end of WWII. Turkey and Bulgaria, with American assistance, could open up a fourth front (with the others being France, Italy, and Russia) in the Balkans, which is why I feel like Kiev could end up in Western hands. Stalin ends up frothing at the mouth on the other side of an extremely well fortified western border.
In the East, America simply puts Japan on the back-burner like OTL until business was taken care of in Europe for the most part, quietly taking islands and slapping down Japanese assaults. If you really wanted to have some stuff get weird, have Japanese Fire Balloons really take off, along with
Cherry Blossoms at Night getting approval, but IMO both of those are interesting enough to be given their own timelines. Essentially, the war goes pretty similarly to OTL, perhaps a little bit slower causing America to drop a third nuclear bomb. With the USSR no where near in fighting shape and the PRC having it's primary sponsor simply unable to support it, most Japanese troops in China cede to the Republican Chinese unlike OTL.
After the war, things are a lot different than OTL. With most of it's population centers depopulated hellholes or not even really part of the USSR anymore, the USSR simply cannot be a superpower like OTL. The Cold War just... doesn't happen. Communism in China collapses, with Mao Zedong fleeing as a hated warlord into the USSR. Colonialism dies out in a similar pattern to OTL, perhaps a little bit faster, though France will still try to hang on to Algeria and the Portuguese to it's colonies. France might actually succeed, at least in the coastal portion, since the Ethiopian participation in the war would mean less French would die in Europe which means more French to suppress rebels in Algeria, and while France might be forced to cede southern Algeria, Northern Algeria (and the million Frenchmen residing within) remain an integral part of France. Portugal, however, would probably loose unless it ended up transitioning into some kind of "Portuguese Intercontinental Federation" which imo is out of character for Salazar. Viet Nam ends up being a conservative Catholic dictatorship. Korea is a quiet, unified, agrarian nation. China's industries absolutely take off, with Chinese cultural influences becoming prevalent in the 70's and 80's. Though, I assume here I'm overstepping my boundaries.
EDIT: Honestly, I wouldn't personally worry too much about a TL being called ASB. There are people on this forum who like have memorized the exact number of bullets in each tiny Italian town from 1838-present. It's scary. So really, as long as you have a good narrative, like, things make sense, you don't do anything super weird like Ethiopia conquers Italy or something like that, you're golden.