WI - No Italian invasion of Greece?

If Italy owns Eritrea and Somalia, it's gonna try for Ethiopia. Remember, the only other independent country at that time in Africa was Liberia, and even then it was still pretty much a backwards American puppet state run by a wheezing kleptocracy. And if it looses in Ethiopia, it's gonna want to make itself look strong elsewhere, which might include an Italian invasion of Greece, which, as it almost did OTL, could turn into a Greek invasion of Italy.
 
If Italy owns Eritrea and Somalia, it's gonna try for Ethiopia. Remember, the only other independent country at that time in Africa was Liberia, and even then it was still pretty much a backwards American puppet state run by a wheezing kleptocracy. And if it looses in Ethiopia, it's gonna want to make itself look strong elsewhere, which might include an Italian invasion of Greece, which, as it almost did OTL, could turn into a Greek invasion of Italy.
I was thinking about an ATL Greek offensive that not only results in an invasion of Albania but perhaps its liberation and maybe an invasion of Italy - Italian reprisals against the Greek community in Ethiopia might also piss off the Greeks but I kinda doubt it.
 
I was thinking about an ATL Greek offensive that not only results in an invasion of Albania but perhaps its liberation and maybe an invasion of Italy - Italian reprisals against the Greek community in Ethiopia might also piss off the Greeks but I kinda doubt it.
My thought is this: Italy looses even more men than OTL in Ethiopia, and has to keep a larger garrison there to keep guerrillas and sectarians and other groups from fighting their way back into power. It still technically "wins," but even more bloodily than OTL. This means that when Italy is preparing to invade Greece, it has something like 100,000 troops on the Albanian border instead of 140,000 like OTL. 40,000 seems like a lot of men, but Ethiopia is a large and populous country, and if it wants to actually gain something from Ethiopia ittl it'll need more people there. Greece and Italy duke it out, but Greece is able to score a major victory over the Italians, and pour into Albania. OTL, Greece's biggest problem is that it simply could not replace the equipment losses it experienced. If you can get Italy to abandon weapons caches in Albania, or be forced out so quickly there isn't time to properly clean them out, then Greece will now have vital war materials. If you really wanna rub it in, you should make the war in Greece go a bit slower but more successful for Italy, at least for a time. Small gains every while, slowly pushing the border more and more south. And then, when Germany launches Barbarossa, you have Greece win a series of major victories, doing the invasion of Albania, and then Germany will not be able to help it's ally anywhere near as much as OTL with the Soviet Union now being a problem.
 
My thought is this: Italy looses even more men than OTL in Ethiopia, and has to keep a larger garrison there to keep guerrillas and sectarians and other groups from fighting their way back into power. It still technically "wins," but even more bloodily than OTL. This means that when Italy is preparing to invade Greece, it has something like 100,000 troops on the Albanian border instead of 140,000 like OTL. 40,000 seems like a lot of men, but Ethiopia is a large and populous country, and if it wants to actually gain something from Ethiopia ittl it'll need more people there. Greece and Italy duke it out, but Greece is able to score a major victory over the Italians, and pour into Albania. OTL, Greece's biggest problem is that it simply could not replace the equipment losses it experienced. If you can get Italy to abandon weapons caches in Albania, or be forced out so quickly there isn't time to properly clean them out, then Greece will now have vital war materials. If you really wanna rub it in, you should make the war in Greece go a bit slower but more successful for Italy, at least for a time. Small gains every while, slowly pushing the border more and more south. And then, when Germany launches Barbarossa, you have Greece win a series of major victories, doing the invasion of Albania, and then Germany will not be able to help it's ally anywhere near as much as OTL with the Soviet Union now being a problem.
The Italians lose around 215,000 men in my alternate Second Italo-Ethiopian War and requires more troops to occupy Ethiopia which has organized an official, royalist resistance movement under Ras Imru's National Ethiopian Liberation Council. As for occupational forces in Albania, it is around 35,000 and slowly growing as the Royal Albanian Home Army becomes active with other Albanian resistance movements but this is taking time as the Italians eagerly increase their influence and development of Albania. The Greeks might be able to secure caches of Italian equipment left behind in the Italian retreat but this may not help if Italy launches another Italian offensive to re-take Albania and back into Greece which may be assisted by the Germans. The Italians might make small gains whilst having border skirmishes with Greece as they move in more troops and make more claims to Greek territory, perhaps Italy is supported by Germany who needs to secure its Balkan flank before launching Operation Barbarossa.
 
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The Italians lose around 285,000 men in my alternate Second Italo-Ethiopian War and requires more troops to occupy Ethiopia which has organized an official, royalist resistance movement under Ras Imru's National Ethiopian Liberation Council. As for occupational forces in Albania, it is around 35,000 and slowly growing as the Royal Albanian Home Army becomes active with other Albanian resistance movements but this is taking time as the Italians eagerly increase their influence and development of Albania. The Greeks might be able to secure caches of Italian equipment left behind in the Italian retreat but this may not help if Italy launches another Italian offensive to re-take Albania and back into Greece which may be assisted by the Germans. The Italians might make small gains whilst having border skirmishes with Greece as they move in more troops and make more claims to Greek territory, perhaps Italy is supported by Germany who needs to secure its Balkan flank before launching Operation Barbarossa.
Okay, with that many losses in Ethiopia, it's likely that the Axis are just going to try to have Greece chill. If Musso invades Greece, he's on his own because considering that's almost 30x as many losses as OTL in Ethiopia, it is questionable whether Italy would even be in a position to fight Greece.
 
Okay, with that many losses in Ethiopia, it's likely that the Axis are just going to try to have Greece chill. If Musso invades Greece, he's on his own because considering that's almost 30x as many losses as OTL in Ethiopia, it is questionable whether Italy would even be in a position to fight Greece.
Perhaps Greece becomes apart of the Axis? Or signs the Tripartite Pact, remaining effectively neutral similarly to pre-1941 coup Yugoslavia. How else could an Italian invasion of Greece look like?
 
Perhaps Greece becomes apart of the Axis? Or signs the Tripartite Pact, remaining effectively neutral similarly to pre-1941 coup Yugoslavia. How else could an Italian invasion of Greece look like?

You could end WWII early. The USSR and Germany tie each other down, but Italy just gets screwed with the RN sinking anything bigger than a raft that has the Italian Naval ensign on it while Greece takes time to build and train its army and navy without directly declaring war on Germany. Then, once America gets dragged into the war and Africa is taken, an Anglo-Greek force invades Italy around the same time as alt-D Day. This means more American soldiers in France, which gets liberated quicker, and also means that the Iron Curtain is significantly more east than OTL, especially if Japan is seen as a vague secondary front like it was OTL. Like, American backed Lithuania east.
 
You could end WWII early. The USSR and Germany tie each other down, but Italy just gets screwed with the RN sinking anything bigger than a raft that has the Italian Naval ensign on it while Greece takes time to build and train its army and navy without directly declaring war on Germany. Then, once America gets dragged into the war and Africa is taken, an Anglo-Greek force invades Italy around the same time as alt-D Day. This means more American soldiers in France, which gets liberated quicker, and also means that the Iron Curtain is significantly more east than OTL, especially if Japan is seen as a vague secondary front like it was OTL. Like, American backed Lithuania east.
A stalemate on the Eastern Front sounds interesting but I'm not sure how plausible it would be. I can see Greece building up its forces with Allied assistance, buying up equipment from the UK and US to prepare for a surprise invasion of Italy around the same time in cooperation with Allied forces - I can see Ethiopian troops participating in the Allied invasion of Italy, I'd assume Ethiopia participates in the North African Campaign following her liberation in 1941.
 
A stalemate on the Eastern Front sounds interesting but I'm not sure how plausible it would be. I can see Greece building up its forces with Allied assistance, buying up equipment from the UK and US to prepare for a surprise invasion of Italy around the same time in cooperation with Allied forces - I can see Ethiopian troops participating in the Allied invasion of Italy, I'd assume Ethiopia participates in the North African Campaign following her liberation in 1941.
Stalin freaks out and purges his army corps again when the Germans are at the gates of Moscow, loosing him Zhukov and some of the few other decent commanders he had. The Germans take Moscow and Stalingrad, and are prepping to do the whole "to the Urals" thing when the Allies land in France. By the time some of the German armies are able to face them from the front lines with the Soviets (with their troops bleeding men both to attrition, ruthless asymmetric warfare, and simply having to occupy the vast lands they control) the Americans are knocking on the door of Germany proper. You could even have Finland flip sides and fight Germany in exchange for having it's right to Karelia internationally recognized. By the time Stalin's shambled army retakes Leningrad, the Allies are in Kiev.
 
Stalin freaks out and purges his army corps again when the Germans are at the gates of Moscow, loosing him Zhukov and some of the few other decent commanders he had. The Germans take Moscow and Stalingrad, and are prepping to do the whole "to the Urals" thing when the Allies land in France. By the time some of the German armies are able to face them from the front lines with the Soviets (with their troops bleeding men both to attrition, ruthless asymmetric warfare, and simply having to occupy the vast lands they control) the Americans are knocking on the door of Germany proper. You could even have Finland flip sides and fight Germany in exchange for having it's right to Karelia internationally recognized. By the time Stalin's shambled army retakes Leningrad, the Allies are in Kiev.
I doubt the Germans would be able to push the Soviets to the Urals but could they take Stalingrad and Moscow? Is there anything else that could happen?
 
I doubt the Germans would be able to push the Soviets to the Urals but could they take Stalingrad and Moscow? Is there anything else that could happen?
I mean, IOTL the Germans did get pretty close. Moscow was more doubtful than Stalingrad, but if you throw in enough Soviet stupidity and a few extra 20's for the Germans, it could fall, though the slaughter that would ensure would need to be addressed. And it would probably lead to West-allied states being carved out of former Soviet territory, especially with well trained Ethiopian units helping to speed things along in the west and a Balkan Front opening up. OTL Bulgaria nearly ended up leaving the Axis because most of the clergy and people simply refused to cooperate with the Holocaust and Bulgaria didn't like being bullied around by Germany. Turkey also joined the Allies nearly at the end of WWII. Turkey and Bulgaria, with American assistance, could open up a fourth front (with the others being France, Italy, and Russia) in the Balkans, which is why I feel like Kiev could end up in Western hands. Stalin ends up frothing at the mouth on the other side of an extremely well fortified western border.

In the East, America simply puts Japan on the back-burner like OTL until business was taken care of in Europe for the most part, quietly taking islands and slapping down Japanese assaults. If you really wanted to have some stuff get weird, have Japanese Fire Balloons really take off, along with Cherry Blossoms at Night getting approval, but IMO both of those are interesting enough to be given their own timelines. Essentially, the war goes pretty similarly to OTL, perhaps a little bit slower causing America to drop a third nuclear bomb. With the USSR no where near in fighting shape and the PRC having it's primary sponsor simply unable to support it, most Japanese troops in China cede to the Republican Chinese unlike OTL.

After the war, things are a lot different than OTL. With most of it's population centers depopulated hellholes or not even really part of the USSR anymore, the USSR simply cannot be a superpower like OTL. The Cold War just... doesn't happen. Communism in China collapses, with Mao Zedong fleeing as a hated warlord into the USSR. Colonialism dies out in a similar pattern to OTL, perhaps a little bit faster, though France will still try to hang on to Algeria and the Portuguese to it's colonies. France might actually succeed, at least in the coastal portion, since the Ethiopian participation in the war would mean less French would die in Europe which means more French to suppress rebels in Algeria, and while France might be forced to cede southern Algeria, Northern Algeria (and the million Frenchmen residing within) remain an integral part of France. Portugal, however, would probably loose unless it ended up transitioning into some kind of "Portuguese Intercontinental Federation" which imo is out of character for Salazar. Viet Nam ends up being a conservative Catholic dictatorship. Korea is a quiet, unified, agrarian nation. China's industries absolutely take off, with Chinese cultural influences becoming prevalent in the 70's and 80's. Though, I assume here I'm overstepping my boundaries.

EDIT: Honestly, I wouldn't personally worry too much about a TL being called ASB. There are people on this forum who like have memorized the exact number of bullets in each tiny Italian town from 1838-present. It's scary. So really, as long as you have a good narrative, like, things make sense, you don't do anything super weird like Ethiopia conquers Italy or something like that, you're golden.
 
I mean, IOTL the Germans did get pretty close. Moscow was more doubtful than Stalingrad, but if you throw in enough Soviet stupidity and a few extra 20's for the Germans, it could fall, though the slaughter that would ensure would need to be addressed. And it would probably lead to West-allied states being carved out of former Soviet territory, especially with well trained Ethiopian units helping to speed things along in the west and a Balkan Front opening up. OTL Bulgaria nearly ended up leaving the Axis because most of the clergy and people simply refused to cooperate with the Holocaust and Bulgaria didn't like being bullied around by Germany. Turkey also joined the Allies nearly at the end of WWII. Turkey and Bulgaria, with American assistance, could open up a fourth front (with the others being France, Italy, and Russia) in the Balkans, which is why I feel like Kiev could end up in Western hands. Stalin ends up frothing at the mouth on the other side of an extremely well fortified western border.

In the East, America simply puts Japan on the back-burner like OTL until business was taken care of in Europe for the most part, quietly taking islands and slapping down Japanese assaults. If you really wanted to have some stuff get weird, have Japanese Fire Balloons really take off, along with Cherry Blossoms at Night getting approval, but IMO both of those are interesting enough to be given their own timelines. Essentially, the war goes pretty similarly to OTL, perhaps a little bit slower causing America to drop a third nuclear bomb. With the USSR no where near in fighting shape and the PRC having it's primary sponsor simply unable to support it, most Japanese troops in China cede to the Republican Chinese unlike OTL.

After the war, things are a lot different than OTL. With most of it's population centers depopulated hellholes or not even really part of the USSR anymore, the USSR simply cannot be a superpower like OTL. The Cold War just... doesn't happen. Communism in China collapses, with Mao Zedong fleeing as a hated warlord into the USSR. Colonialism dies out in a similar pattern to OTL, perhaps a little bit faster, though France will still try to hang on to Algeria and the Portuguese to it's colonies. France might actually succeed, at least in the coastal portion, since the Ethiopian participation in the war would mean less French would die in Europe which means more French to suppress rebels in Algeria, and while France might be forced to cede southern Algeria, Northern Algeria (and the million Frenchmen residing within) remain an integral part of France. Portugal, however, would probably loose unless it ended up transitioning into some kind of "Portuguese Intercontinental Federation" which imo is out of character for Salazar. Viet Nam ends up being a conservative Catholic dictatorship. Korea is a quiet, unified, agrarian nation. China's industries absolutely take off, with Chinese cultural influences becoming prevalent in the 70's and 80's. Though, I assume here I'm overstepping my boundaries.

EDIT: Honestly, I wouldn't personally worry too much about a TL being called ASB. There are people on this forum who like have memorized the exact number of bullets in each tiny Italian town from 1838-present. It's scary. So really, as long as you have a good narrative, like, things make sense, you don't do anything super weird like Ethiopia conquers Italy or something like that, you're golden.
Interesting scenarios! Thanks!
 
I doubt the Germans would be able to push the Soviets to the Urals but could they take Stalingrad and Moscow? Is there anything else that could happen?

They'd be even more severely attritioned? This is the result seldom discussed in a 'The Reds Do Worse' scenario. that is the Germans break the Red Army, but their losses are so severe they have trouble fielding a effective military against the West Allies. Maybe the numbers are there, but the quality can't be recovered in time? something like what happened to the Japanese Navy air arm in 1943/44? I've seen this outcome on the game board enough times to consider the real world possibility.
 
They'd be even more severely attritioned? This is the result seldom discussed in a 'The Reds Do Worse' scenario. that is the Germans break the Red Army, but their losses are so severe they have trouble fielding a effective military against the West Allies. Maybe the numbers are there, but the quality can't be recovered in time? something like what happened to the Japanese Navy air arm in 1943/44? I've seen this outcome on the game board enough times to consider the real world possibility.
How worse does the Eastern Front become as a result of German victories at Moscow and Stalingrad? I don't think the USSR would collapse but they'd certainly lose large amounts of men and material, perhaps to the point where Stalin is overthrown by Zhukov or Beria or whoever and sues for peace but this may not happen.
 
Stalingrad's fall, and definitely Moscow's, would be a trigger for Japan to invade as well, which does not help the situation.
 
Stalingrad's fall, and definitely Moscow's, would be a trigger for Japan to invade as well, which does not help the situation.
Wouldn't Japan have been bogged down in Southeast Asia and the Pacific where their resources were stretched thin? I don't think Japan was capable of invading the Soviet Union, even if it's losing on the Eastern Front.
 
Wouldn't Japan have been bogged down in Southeast Asia and the Pacific where their resources were stretched thin? I don't think Japan was capable of invading the Soviet Union, even if it's losing on the Eastern Front.

Cutting off the Pacific supply route leaves only the Murmansk run and Persian corridor as major supply routes into Russia. One of the major railroads at that point runs through the Caucasus.
 
Would Germany invade Greece in order to secure her Balkan flank for the eventual invasion of the USSR or would it stress peace in the Balkans?
 
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